AI Election Result Predictions 2024

18/09/2024

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18/09/2024

ජනාධිපතිවරණ පුරෝකථනය - සැප්තැම්බර් 17, 2024
සාරාංශය:
# කිසිදු අපේක්ෂකයෙකුට 50% සීමාව පසු කල නොහැක
# පලමු වතාවට දෙවන මනාපයට වටිනාකමක්
# පාවෙන ඡන්ද දායකයන් තීරනයක් ගෙන අවසන්
# ජයග්‍රහි අපේක්ෂකයන් දෙදෙනා වටා ඡන්ද ඒකරාසී වෙමින් පවතී.
# නාමල් සහ රනිල් තරඟයෙන් ඉවතට.
# ඡන්දදායකයින් මිලියන 1 ක් තවම අවසන් තීරනය ගෙන නොමැත.

සජිත්:

*ජනවාර්ගික සුළු ජාතීන්ගෙන් 70% සහාය.
* විවිධ ආගමික කණ්ඩායම් සහ අඩු ආදායම්ලාභී පුද්ගලයින්ගේ සහාය
* දිස්ත්‍රික්ක 10 ක විශිෂ්ට ජයග්‍රහණයක් අපේක්ෂා කෙරේ.
* 50% ක පමණ ඡන්ද ප්‍රතිශතයක් ලබා ගැනීමේ
වැඩිම සබ්භාවිතාව ඇති අපේක්ෂකයා.

අනුර:
* සිංහල බෞද්ධ නාගරික මධ්‍යම පන්තියේ විශ්වාසය තහවුරු කරගෙන ඇත .
* සුළු ජාතීන් සහ ආගමික කණ්ඩායම් දිනා ගැනීමට අසමත් වී ඇත

අනුර මැතිවරණයෙන් ජයග්‍රහණය කිරීමේ සම්භාවිතාව පහත සඳහන් ප්‍රධාන අවස්ථා මත පදනම්ව තක්සේරු කළ හැක.
*ඉහළ සිංහල බෞද්ධ සහයෝගය: අනුර සිංහල බෞද්ධ ඡන්දවලින් 70%කට වඩා වැඩි ප්‍රමාණයක් ලබා ගන්නේ නම්, ඔහුට මැතිවරණයෙන් ජයග්‍රහණය කිරීමේ අවස්ථාව ඉතා ඉහළ ය.
* අනුර සුළු ජනවාර්ගික සහ අනෙකුත් ආගමික කණ්ඩායම්වල ඡන්ද වලින් 40% කට වඩා ලබා ගන්නේ නම්, එය ඔහුගේ ජයග්‍රහණයේ සම්භාවිතාව සැලකිය යුතු ලෙස වැඩි කරයි.

* රනිල් නාමල් එකතුව 25% ට වඩා වැඩි ඡන්ද ප්‍රමාණයක් ලැබුණහොත්, මෙම තත්ත්වය අනුරගේ මැතිවරණය ජයග්‍රහණය කිරීමේ සම්භාවිතාව ද වැඩි කරයි.
සමස්ත සම්භාවිතාව: මෙම කොන්දේසි කිසිවක් සපුරා නොමැති නම්, ඉදිරි මැතිවරණයේදී අනුරට ජයග්‍රහණය කිරීමේ අවස්ථාව සැලකිය යුතු ලෙස අඩු වේ. මේ අනුව, ඔහුගේ ජයග්‍රහණයේ සම්භාවිතාව අවම වශයෙන් ඉහත එක් අවස්ථාවක් හෝ හමුවීම මත දැඩි ලෙස රඳා පවතී.

16/09/2024

AI Presidential Election Prediction - September 17, 2024
Summary:
Floating votes are now decided.
# Votes are consolidating around the top two candidates.
# Namal and Ranil are out of the race.
# 1 million voters remain undecided.
# Sajith has the potential to achieve around 50% of the overall vote.
Sajith:
Expected to receive:
*70% support from ethnic minorities.
* Backing from various religious groups and low-income individuals.
* Projected to win in 10 districts.
* Potential to secure around 50% of the vote.
Anura:
* Gaining support from the Sinhala Buddhist urban middle class.
* Struggling to win over ethnic minorities and religious groups.
Needs:
- Over 70% of Sinhala Buddhist votes.
- More than 40% of votes from ethnic minorities and other religious groups.
Alternatively, if Ranil and Namal get over 25% of the vote, Anura's chances of a clear victory increase.

14/09/2024

50%
ප්‍රභල අපේක්ෂකයන් 4 දෙනෙක් ඉදිරිපත් වන ඡනාධිපතිවරනයක කිසිවෙකුට 50% ලබා ගැනීමේ හැකියාවක් නැත. ඒ අනුව 3 වන ස්ථානය හිමි කරගන්නා රනිල් වික්‍රමසිංහ සහ 4 වන ස්ථානය හිමි කරගන්නා නාමල් රාජපක්ෂගේ දෙවන සහ තුන්වන මනාප මැතිවරන ජයග්‍රහනයට තීරනාත්මකව බරපායි.

11/09/2024

https://sinhala.mawratanews.lk/exclusive/a-survey-queue-a-string-of-results-a-prelude-to-the-21st/

සමීක්ෂණ පෝලිමක්! ප්‍රතිඵල වැලක්! 21 වැනිදාට පෙරවදනක්! Sri Lanka Latest News - Sri Lanka Latest News

10/09/2024

AI Presidential Election Prediction - September 10, 2024
Summary:
Floating votes are now decided.
# Votes are consolidating around the top two candidates.
# Namal and Ranil are out of the race.
# 1 million voters remain undecided.
# Sajith has the potential to achieve around 50% of the overall vote.

Sajith:
Expected to receive:
*70% support from ethnic minorities.
* Backing from various religious groups and low-income individuals.
* Projected to win in 10 districts.
* Potential to secure around 50% of the vote.

Anura:
* Gaining support from the Sinhala Buddhist urban middle class.
* Struggling to win over ethnic minorities and religious groups.
Needs:
- Over 70% of Sinhala Buddhist votes.
- More than 40% of votes from ethnic minorities and other religious groups.
Alternatively, if Ranil and Namal get over 25% of the vote, Anura's chances of a clear victory increase.

09/09/2024

Probability of Anura Winning the Election:

The probability of Anura winning the election can be assessed based on the following key scenarios:

High Sinhala Buddhist Support:
If Anura secures over 70% of the Sinhala Buddhist votes, his chances of winning the election are very high.

Strong Ethnic Minority and Other Religious Group Support:
If Anura garners more than 40% of the votes from ethnic minorities and other religious groups, it significantly boosts his likelihood of winning.

Ranil's Vote Share:
If Ranil receives more than 25% of the votes, this scenario also increases Anura’s probability of winning the election.

Overall Probability: Should none of these conditions be met, Anura’s chances of winning the upcoming election are considerably reduced. Thus, his probability of victory hinges heavily on meeting at least one of the above scenarios.

05/09/2024

Let's investigate how closely GeoAI and big data predictions correspond to the final results.

04/09/2024

The Most Significant AI-Based Prediction for the Upcoming Presidential Election - 2024
For the first time in Sri Lankan history, a groundbreaking forecast of the 2024 presidential election is being conducted using advanced GeoAI technology and extensive data analysis. This initiative will predict election outcomes across 14,022 Grama Niladhari divisions and 17,140,354 voters, evaluating over 100 criteria and variables through interactive, intelligent maps.
Our methodology mirrors the sophisticated techniques used by prominent figures such as Donald Trump and Narendra Modi for accurate election forecasting. This effort is led by a team of independent local and international Sri Lankan scholars with expertise in geopolitical data analytics, utilizing cutting-edge GeoAI technology for a comprehensive analysis.
Our goal is to showcase the potential of GeoAI technology in predicting election results with high accuracy, rather than supporting any particular candidate.
If our predictions prove successful, we look forward to sharing our methodology with professional experts in the industry through a top-tier international journal. We’re excited about the potential and passionate about the possibilities!
Summary of All-Island Results Prediction as of September 1, 2024
• Sajith (44%): Sajith is projected to receive significant support, with an estimated 70% backing from ethnic minorities, various religious groups, and individuals with low incomes.
• Anura (37%): Anura has gained considerable trust among the Sinhala Buddhist urban middle class. To secure a decisive victory, Anura needs to secure at least 66% of the Sinhala Buddhist votes. The next two weeks will be critical for both candidates in their efforts to attract Sinhala Buddhist votes.
• Ranil (12%): High-income groups and the business community are expected to support Ranil. However, Ranil is not anticipated to be a major contender in this election. If Ranil secures more than 15% of the votes, it could complicate the chances for other candidates to achieve a majority.
• Namal (7%): Namal is projected to have a minimal impact on the election results.

29/08/2024

The next two weeks are critical for the top three candidates.

Press Release 29 August, 2024 AK Dissanayake and Sajith Premadasa lead neck and neck in July voting intent, but support for Pres. Ranil Wickremesinghe surges IHP MRP Presidential Election Update July 2024 IHP’s Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) MRP provisional estimates of Presidential Elec...