31/08/2026
Increased Risk of Stronger Severe Thunderstorms this Spring.
Spring is here, and the early signals for the 2026/27 severe weather season are already getting interesting. An 80%+ signal for above median rainfall across parts of WA and the NT points to an early start there, while Queensland has a more uncertain but potentially volatile season ahead.
The areas to watch initially appear to be central and northern WA as well as the NT from late September through October and November, with a strong signal for increased thunderstorm activity and an 80%+ chance of exceeding median rainfall accumulations. Subsequently, the northern rainfall onset could be considerably earlier than normal across these regions.
Then there are portions of inland and southern Queensland from late October onwards. Climate models show a broad area with 60%+ chances of exceeding median rainfall, and given the time of year, it is reasonable to expect this to be associated with increased thunderstorm activity in the region.
For Brisbane and Southeast QLD, as well as other parts of coastal QLD and NSW down to Sydney, the signal is weaker. I'd therefore expect a more ‘average’ year, still plenty of storm activity, potentially with some stronger than usual events thanks to a warmer and more moisture rich atmosphere, but without the particularly strong signal currently evident across inland Australia.
That's all thanks to more fuel in the atmosphere. More heat can mean greater instability when sufficient humidity and the right upper level synoptic features are present, while a warmer atmosphere can also hold more moisture, providing greater rainfall potential when significant weather systems develop.
Whilst the overarching climate drivers, including a strong El Niño and positive IOD, would generally suggest an unfavourable environment for storm development and significant rainfall, there are two key caveats. First, regardless of the broader climate setup, Australia will still see significant thunderstorms, rainfall and tropical weather every summer. Second, a warmer atmosphere and oceans could partially offset some of the suppressive influence of these climate drivers.
Reliable climate models can generally provide useful guidance out to around early December at this range, but beyond that there is significant uncertainty around exactly where and when the heaviest rainfall could occur. This period also encompasses Australia's peak rainfall and cyclone activity during a typical wet season, so I'll refrain from making specific predictions beyond that point, with one exception: monsoon onset currently looks slightly later than usual, potentially during the first fortnight of January.
September is what I like to call the "warm up month", because it quite literally is. It's time to start preparing your home and property for severe weather, wherever you are in Australia. Get your gutters, gardens and outdoor areas ship shape, make sure your insurance is current, and ensure your family knows what to do when severe weather threatens.
Preparedness is the best tool we have to reduce the impact of severe weather in Australia, so don't wait until the storms arrive.
I don’t normally rattle my tin cup in my posts, but if you’re looking for high-quality severe weather information, along with a host of interactive climate intelligence maps like the ones pictured in this post, where you can zoom, explore and play with rainfall and storm data, consider joining THE FRONT LINE. You’ll be emailed when severe weather targets your area, with up to 7 days of advance warning, and you’ll be included in my network of advanced severe weather and rainfall intelligence. You’ll also be supporting a rapidly growing Australian business. All of my general forecasts and outlooks will remain free here, but for those wanting MUCH more, THE FRONT LINE is well worth the 50c/week. Link below. ~Josh.
