Real Liberals in Elgin

08/11/2026

And another by-election in the future. Shaun Chen, MP for Scarborough North was in a serious car crash in 2025 and feels he can no longer manage the rigors and responsibilities of being an MP.
This has traditionally been seen as a fairly safe liberal seat and whomever replaces Mr Chen in the nomination for the by-election will hopefully be successful.

With so many by-elections coming up and with the Liberals leading over the Conservatives, maybe we can win enough of them to finally put this silly concept of an imminent election to rest.

And maybe we will see Poilievre leave if he does badly although we would miss him. For liberals, he is the gift that keeps on giving.

08/11/2026

Liberals could win in a by-election condidering the high level of disapproval of Poilievre. Political parties of all colours will throw huge amounts of money at 1 riding in a by-election.

But could Liberals keep the seat in a general election if the CPC changes its leader?

Absolutely — here’s a tighter, more punchy version suited to a news article or broadcast script:

The Liberals could be within striking distance of flipping a Conservative-held Ontario riding after MP Larry Brock announced he will resign from the House of Commons in September.

Brock won Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations by 11 points over his Liberal opponent in the 2025 federal election. Pollster Dan Arnold says that margin is “not insurmountable,” particularly if Conservative turnout slips and the Liberals nominate a strong candidate.

338Canada founder Philippe Fournier says the Conservatives remain the favourites, but the byelection could be more competitive than expected. He also sees it as a potential test for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, as the party has lost some support in Ontario compared with last year.

08/11/2026

The CPC backroom has to be looking for a replacement for Poilievre. Will they keep as far to the right or find someone most reasonable conservatives would prefer?

Either way the dynamics will change public perception and probably change the fortunes of the Liberal Party of Canada.

07/28/2026

Popularity comes and goes. This chart below from Nik Nanos, shows the popularity of leaders over many years. You can see on the red line (the Liberal one) how high the popularity of Mr. Trudeau was in 2015. Rock start status. Then he let the Conservatives define him and he became hated even in his own party. It made Mr Poilievre look like a better option. Mr Poilievre was riding high going into the 2025 election.

Enter Mark Carney. Dependable, hardworking, and seen as a man of substance. He is currently enjoying a similar level of popularity that Mr Trudeau did in 2015. Or does he? Is it real appreciation for Carney or is it dislike of the other options?

They say everything is relative. Mr Trudeau beat out Mr Harper who had become hated by the public. It looked like Mr Poileivre was going to beat out Mr Trudeau who had become hated by the public, but instead the liberals traded Trudeau for Carney and Mr Carney beat out Mr Poilievre, who was not well liked by the public.

The Conservative Party of Canada has to be searching itself (in the back room of course) for a replacement for Mr Poilievre since it has become apparent to almost everybody that he is not Prime ministerial material.

What will happen when the CPC finally moves Mr. Poilievre on to a new position and finds someone that will stand up for true conservative values (whatever they are)? Can we predict what will happen to Mr Carney's popularity? Will it sink in the polls as Trudeau's did, as Harper's did and even as Poilievre's did? Without a doubt it will be a game changer for federal politics.

What will happen in Elgin then?

07/21/2026

This is how our MP Andrew Lawton shows his support for the 2SLGBTQIA+ community. It is timed to run against the annual Pride in the Park event hosted by Elgin County Pride.

MP Lawton, DO BETTER. These community members are also your constituents, yet you show total disregard for their lives. These are some of the most marginalized people in your riding, but your don't lift them up. You ignore them by sponsoring a swim to run against their most important event of the year in Elgin County.

Grab your swimsuit and join us for a Free Public Swim at Jaycees Pool on Saturday, July 25 — sponsored by MP Andrew Lawton!

Bring your family and friends and enjoy some time in the pool at no cost.

📅 Saturday, July 25, 2026 | 1:30-4 p.m.
📍 Jaycees Pool (93 Inkerman St.)

We can’t wait to see you there! 🏊‍♂️

06/23/2026

338 is not the only site that does poll guessing. This one seems more realistic for the fed projection. Anyone have an opinion on this? 338 gives it a toss-up with both the Libs and the Cons even at 43, last updated on Jun 21.

06/19/2026

Probably we all felt exactly the same. Thanks PM.

O Canada. History made.

06/08/2026

Welcome to the new GG, Lpuise Arbour, and thanks to Mary Simon for her dedication.

Full speech: https://youtu.be/7yRhpbcdVsg?si=i-dm4j7E1yjRqo7J

“I look at Canada through the eyes of someone who has known it both up close and from afar, always with admiration. A country that is not afraid to reinvent itself.”

Governor General Arbour has formally delivered her first address to Canadians.

After decades of shaping international justice and advancing human rights, she brings her distinguished service home once again. As Canada’s governor general, she will represent the Crown and uphold the nation’s constitutional and ceremonial traditions.

Read the full installation speech: https://www.gg.ca/en/media/news/2026/installation-speech.