03/07/2026
By Jeff Armstrong
The recent by-election result demonstrates that Reform performed significantly better than both Labour and the Green Party.
Of the 2,343 votes cast, John Scoble (Horwich & Blackrod Independents/First) won convincingly with 1,186 votes (50.6%). Reform's Wendy Parkinson secured 541 votes (23.1%), compared with 343 votes (14.6%) for Labour and 189 votes (8.1%) for the Green Party. Reform outpolled Labour by 198 votes and finished 8.5 percentage points ahead of Labour.
The result also raises questions about the effectiveness of the so-called "Andy Burnham bounce". Despite Labour benefiting from the profile and popularity of Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, Labour secured just 14.6% of the vote and finished well behind both Horwich & Blackrod Independents and Reform. This suggests that any anticipated electoral advantage associated with the Burnham brand did not translate into a stronger performance for Labour in this contest.
While the clear winner was John Scoble and Horwich & Blackrod Independents with an outright majority of 50.6%, Reform's result was nevertheless significant. Claiming 23.1% of the vote and comfortably outperforming Labour and the Greens demonstrates that Reform is becoming a serious challenger in areas that have traditionally been dominated by Labour.
Looking ahead, this result will give Reform supporters confidence about the party's prospects in Greater Manchester. Although one by-election alone cannot predict the outcome of a mayoral election, Reform's ability to finish ahead of Labour in this contest suggests that the party is building momentum across the region. If similar trends continue, Reform could have a strong chance of mounting a serious challenge in a future Greater Manchester mayoral election.
For Labour, securing only 14.6% of the vote should be a warning sign that support cannot be taken for granted. For Reform, finishing second with 23.1%, ahead of both Labour and the Greens, is further evidence that the party is attracting voters who are looking for an alternative to the established political parties.