27/08/2026
Heartfelt condolences to the families of those affected by this devastating tragedy.
What we know about the situation so far.
🔴 Death toll has risen substantially
The latest Nepal Police figure I can verify is 389 deaths in Nepal as of 9 pm Thursday, with bodies recovered across eight districts. 910 people remain missing or out of contact, according to Nepal’s disaster authority.
Across Nepal and Tibet combined, AP reports more than 390 confirmed deaths and more than 1,400 people missing. The numbers remain fluid as searches continue.
⚠️ The biggest concern now: TWO new barrier lakes
This is the most significant new development.
Reuters reports that Nepal and China are now warning about two newly formed lakes, one on either side of the border, that could potentially breach. One formed when debris blocked a river at the original disaster site and is continuing to rise.
Chinese authorities say another barrier lake contains approximately 2 million cubic metres of water and could receive another 3 million cubic metres over the next three days. Authorities are particularly concerned about a possible breach around 1 September.
Nepal’s authorities are therefore still telling people along the Bhote Koshi → Trishuli → Narayani system to stay away from riverbanks and other high-risk areas. Some rescue personnel are also being moved to safer locations.
🧊 Cause is now much better established
The evidence now strongly supports a glacier collapse/ice-rock avalanche rather than ordinary rainfall.
The collapse sent an enormous volume of ice, rock, mud and debris into the river system, producing a cascading sequence of river blockages and sudden releases.
The initial warning system also failed badly: Nepal reportedly received information only after the flood had crossed the Chinese border. The surge reached Syabrubesi roughly 10 minutes after crossing into Nepal, leaving very little evacuation time.