Alabama Storm Alert

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Good morning, folks. To those currently unaware, portions of Alabama could be threatened by strong to perhaps severe thu...
10/06/2021

Good morning, folks. To those currently unaware, portions of Alabama could be threatened by strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms this afternoon. The good news is that this threat certainly appears to be low-end, however any severe thunderstorm mode (damaging wind, large hail, tornado) could accompany thunderstorms that originate today, so it's important to make sure that your source(s) of warning information are in perfect-working order!

So.. here's what you need to understand. Nothing new, nothing fancy. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible (mainly this afternoon) across most of northern & central Alabama as an upper low continues spurring off to our west. Destabilization is everything here, which will directly influence the coverage & intensity of storms today.

Thunderstorms could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, hailstones (possibly approaching 1" in diameter), and perhaps a tornado. The greatest odds of experiencing a twister today exist over eastern Alabama where a slightly greater threshold of low-level wind shear resides.

Like in many scenarios, these cells evolve & move through "random" locations. It's anomalous. The vast majority of people marginally threatened by storms today will NOT be affected by hazardous inclement weather. It's about the unlucky few who potentially do — emphasizing the importance of being adequately prepared. Do NOT only rely on Facebook or other social media for seeking Tornado Warning information.

In conclusion, low-end severe potential exists today for much of northern & central Alabama. The threat peaks this afternoon, and gradually lessens during the evening. That's it. Like I said, nothing fancy here. As we continue to navigate our way through the Autumn months, anticipate more frequent encounters with non-tropical cyclone-related severe weather events as statistical tornado season returns to the Deep South (starting in November).

Thank you for reading; have a wonderful day! #alwx

..Alex Roberts..

Good morning, everyone. Unfortunately, we continue to deal with tornado potential today. It is important to understand t...
08/30/2021

Good morning, everyone. Unfortunately, we continue to deal with tornado potential today. It is important to understand that low-end tornado potential exists for ALL 67 Alabama counties today and tonight. It's extremely important to own a working source of warning information (just in case of weather-related emergency). Tropical-related tornadoes, while almost exclusively small & short-lived in nature, often develop very quickly (sometimes right when or before a Tornado Warning is issued; this can shorten the time you have to take cover).

Rotating low-topped convection has been & continues to be observed across portions of far southwestern Alabama. The tornado threat could gradually expand northward (potentially reaching parts of northern Alabama) by early afternoon. It's important to understand that ALL tornado potential across the state is to remain low (but not zero). Once again, the southwestern quadrant of Alabama appears to be most threatened given where the best-looking thermodynamic profiles are located (in relation to favorable wind fields).

There could be periodical lulls in convective band activity (especially by late afternoon/evening), however there's some indication that tornado potential could ramp up again later this evening & overnight across most of the state as wind fields begin to strengthen. Again, ALL tornado potential being dealt with today & tonight across Alabama is low. Nocturnal tornadoes are generally more dangerous, emphasizing the importance of being able to receive warning information 24/7. Social media should NOT be your only source for receiving warning information.

TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES [UNTIL 4PM CDT]:

BALDWIN
BUTLER
CHOCTAW
CLARKE
CONECUH
COVINGTON
CRENSHAW
ESCAMBIA
MOBILE
MONROE
WASHINGTON
WILCOX

That's it. Low-end tornado threat exists across virtually the entire state today. Greatest threat exists across southwestern Alabama. Potential could tapper off some by late afternoon (some potential still existent), but potentially increase again later this evening/overnight & into tomorrow (tomorrow's tornado scenario will be addressed in a future weather briefing).

Of course, the vast majority of Alabamians will not be affected by tornadic activity. It's about the potential unlucky few who do. Continue to stay up-to-date with your area's local weather as you maintain a general sense of weather-awareness up until you go to bed.

That's all for now; have a great rest-of-your-day! #alwx

..Alex Roberts.. [REVISED: 10:57am CDT 8/30]

Major Hurricane Ida will promote isolated tornado potential today and tonight across much of southwestern Alabama. The r...
08/29/2021

Major Hurricane Ida will promote isolated tornado potential today and tonight across much of southwestern Alabama. The rest of the state is likely to be marginally threatened by tomorrow. This particular weather briefing will only cover today's tornado threat; more updates in regards to risk assessments are planned to be issued later today & again tomorrow as operations on our side are extraordinarily busy. Anyway, let's get back to today's tornado threat.

SITUATION: Here's a brief situation update. Tropical Cyclone Ida, a particularly devastating category 4 hurricane, will make landfall to southeastern Louisiana early this afternoon. The cyclone underwent rapid core strengthening overnight, and will make landfall stronger than previously expected. This should NOT have much of an effect on the severity of tropical effects being felt in Alabama.

Now, back to the discussion on tornadoes:

Today is the first opportunity for tropical tornadoes in our state (southwestern Alabama). The second opportunity comes tomorrow (most of Alabama); the third potentially on Tuesday (eastern Alabama). But again, this particular briefing is only to cover today's threat; we have to get through today before we can focus on future days.

So, here's what you need to know for today:

There is a low-end threat for tornadoes currently ongoing across coastal & far southwestern Alabama. Tropical convection has periodically exhibited rotational characteristics this morning, and there will likely be more of these developing cells throughout the afternoon across these areas. The tornado potential will conditionally extend northward and perhaps a bit eastward, covering a little more of the state by this evening/overnight.

TORNADO WATCH: Effective for Baldwin, Escambia, Mobile, and Washington Counties [FAR SW AL] until 7:00pm CDT this evening; this is a good areal guideline to where we think the tornado potential is currently the highest.

So in short, today's tornado potential is focused across far southwest Alabama; it will slowly extend northward & perhaps eastward, but that's it. More tornado potential comes tomorrow for the majority of the state, and possibly again across eastern Alabama on Tuesday. But the good news is that ALL potential will sit lower on the scale. As always, just make sure that your source of warning information is in perfect-working order.

That's all for now; enjoy the rest of your day! #alwx

..Alex Roberts..

Good evening, folks. We have new information in regards to our potential tropical weather scenario. Tropical Cyclone Ida...
08/29/2021

Good evening, folks. We have new information in regards to our potential tropical weather scenario. Tropical Cyclone Ida, a category 2 hurricane, continues to gradually strengthen. The cyclone is still projected to reach major hurricane status late tonight prior to making landfall to the southeastern Louisiana coastline tomorrow afternoon (Sunday). Tropical weather effects are still anticipated to reach Alabama starting late tomorrow, and should fully set in by Monday & could last through Tuesday. Here's what we currently know:

SITUATION OVERVIEW: Model guidance has matured concerning Ida's projected trajectory, magnitude, evolution, and decay rate. Therefore, our confidence with this round of forecasting information is considerably high as guidance shifts appear highly unlikely from here on out. Hurricane Ida will strike the southeastern Louisiana coast as a major hurricane (category 4 seems most reasonable) tomorrow afternoon, and will begin steering clockwise into Mississippi/Tennessee Monday/Tuesday. Given that Alabama will be to the east of Ida's eyewall, tropical effects to portions of the state are likely starting late tomorrow afternoon & will last through all of Monday and earlier Tuesday. We strongly believe that the greatest threshold of effects will be felt across coastal, far southwest, and generally the western-half of the state during this timeframe (SW AL starting late tomorrow; the rest comes Monday into Tuesday over location more inland).

TROPICAL STORM WARNING: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baldwin, Mobile, and Washington Counties [FAR SW AL] until further notice. This delineated area represents a good guideline in capturing where we think tropical storm-force wind gusts & flooding will be greater concentrated.

..Risk Assessment..

FLOODING POTENTIAL: Hurricane Ida will be an efficient rainfall producer. Given Ida's projected trajectory/navigation, much of western Alabama (includes all of coastal, southwest, west-central, and northwest Alabama) will be at least modestly threatened by flash flooding due to excessive rainfall. The WPC (Weather Prediction Center) has officially defined a "Moderate Risk" for excessive rainfall (Monday) across portions of extreme west Alabama, with the "Slight Risk" extending more eastward. Take potential Flash Flood Warnings seriously.

While Ida is NOT anticipated to bring major flooding problems to the majority of the state, organized potential will still exist starting late Sunday. As always, DO NOT drive your vehicle into a flooded roadway.

WIND GUST POTENTIAL: There will probably be an opportunity for winds to occasionally gust past 40mph over coastal Alabama (and locations within the Tropical Storm Warning) starting late tomorrow. Gusty winds could extend more inland throughout roughly the western-half of the state Monday into Tuesday with gusts potentially exceeding 30mph.

Overall, while a major wind scenario appears highly unlikely, it's still important to note that minor structural damage can still be achieved (especially with falling tree branches). Sporadic power outages are possible too, especially over far southwestern Alabama.

TORNADO POTENTIAL: This one currently appears to be the most spatially-extensive hazard. Isolated tropical tornadoes appear possible over a multitude of days.. potentially starting late tomorrow over far southern Alabama. The threat will extend northward into more of Alabama by Monday & potentially again Tuesday. At this time, while the potential for tornadoes appears highest over the western-half of the state, some potential may exist further eastward into more of southern, central, and perhaps northern Alabama.

Such, while there is still more meteorology to do pertaining to the tornado risk, the ENTIRE STATE (all 67 Alabama counties) should make sure their source of warning information is in perfect-working order. By tomorrow afternoon, we should have a better grasp of the areal & temporal aspects of the tornado potential. The good news is that tropical tornadoes are traditionally short-lived & small in nature. Again, the confidence in tornado potential somewhere taking place is high.. we just need to do more work regarding its areal bounds.

SUMMARY: Tropical effects begin over southwestern Alabama late tomorrow. They will extend more inland by Monday & could last through Tuesday. It's important to remain weather-aware regardless of which Alabama county you live in. Overall, while this event is NOT anticipated to be particularly significant, it is still important to understand the outlined hazards & have a plan ready to go just in case of a weather-related emergency. That is all for now; have a great night. #alwx

..Alex Roberts.. [REVISED: 1:53am CDT 8/29]

Good evening, folks. Unfortunately, tropical weather potential is increasing once again over the Gulf coast. In fact, a ...
08/27/2021

Good evening, folks. Unfortunately, tropical weather potential is increasing once again over the Gulf coast. In fact, a hurricane scenario is becoming more likely over the central Gulf coast later this weekend as our newly named cyclone (Tropical Storm Ida) drifts northwestward towards the United States. At this time, a direct impact to the Louisiana coast appears most likely & tropical hazardous weather could become an issue for parts of Alabama in the coming days. Here's what we currently know:

Guidance has remarkably stayed very consistent over the last couple of days regarding cyclone trajectory. The cyclone is anticipated to undergo gradual strengthening as it accelerates into an environment primed for cyclone intensification. At this time, given our past assessments of trajectorial/magnitude guidance, a coastal Louisiana impact appears most likely (late this weekend). If this scenario occurs, portions of Alabama would be in line for periods of heavy rainfall & perhaps tornado potential (early next week). However as you know, there is still opportunity for guidance to refine. Trajectory shifts westward would decrease the odds for hazardous weather reaching our state, while a shift eastward would increase the odds for hazardous weather.

Just understand that this data being presented only pertains to our current "best guess", and best guesses can change over time. We will be able to thoroughly answer your questions and define the caliber & spatial extent of hazardous weather potential within the next 1-2 days as guidance grasps a more-refined understanding of the system. That is all for now; have a great night. #alwx

..Alex Roberts.. [REVISED: 10:45pm CDT 8/26]

08/27/2021

The gulf coast is being threatened once again; stay tuned for Alabama weather update.

It's time to briefly discuss tomorrow's potential for tornadoes. First off, Tropical Storm Fred does appear to possess t...
08/16/2021

It's time to briefly discuss tomorrow's potential for tornadoes. First off, Tropical Storm Fred does appear to possess the ability to spawn tornadoes. These these tornadoes would be derived from outer convective bands, potentially containing transient mesocyclones (which can lead to tornadoes). Fred's trajectory will heavily influence the areal extent of all tornado potential, making us believe that isolated tornadoes would be possible (TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT) across far southeastern Alabama. Tornadoes associated with tropical cyclones are traditionally small in nature (due to their meager environments), however they are also fast-developing with lessening warning lead times.

It's important to note that the potential for isolated tornadoes is likely to continue into the overnight hours (Monday-Tuesday). Nocturnal tornadoes are historically more dangerous than daytime tornadoes. Make sure that your source(s) of warning information is/are in perfect-working order.

Again, the composite environment, in which storms are to be operating within tomorrow, appears marginal (though sufficient) — making the potential for tornadoes limited (common when dealing with tropical systems). So in short, tomorrow's tornado threat will sit on the LOW-END. We still have more convective data to evaluate, so continue to check back for updates.

So.. that's it. As always, continue to check back for updates. Thank you for reading & have a great night.

..Alex Roberts.. [Revised: 8/15 10:21pm CDT]

Good evening, folks! We have new information regarding the fate of Tropical Storm Fred & its potential impacts to our st...
08/16/2021

Good evening, folks! We have new information regarding the fate of Tropical Storm Fred & its potential impacts to our state. The cyclone is anticipated to continue drifting northward across the Gulf of Mexico.. likely making landfall to the western Florida Panhandle as a middle-echelon tropical storm tomorrow evening. Fred is then projected to sweep over the south-central & southeastern portions of our state late tomorrow night into Tuesday morning. Unfortunately, confidence continues to grow in the likelihood of hazardous weather being observed over parts of the state, and now it's looking like that portions of SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA are to be most-threatened by tropical effects. Keep reading; more below!

Time for the details. First of all, trajectory guidance has shifted yet again (however it seems to be finalizing). Upon our assessment of trends, it's been concluded that Fred will likely stay away from coastal Alabama & instead make landfall to the western Florida Panhandle tomorrow evening. Assuming the latest few rounds of guidance are correct (I strongly believe that they are), tropical impacts are to be confined mainly to the southeastern quarter of the state (tomorrow evening through Tuesday morning). As you know, Fred's trajectory & exact placement in relation to our state will influence the duration & intensity of tropical weather effects felt over Alabama. Guidance seems to be in the process of maturing; In short, this round forecasting information being released this evening possesses a much higher level of confidence compared to previous days. So now, here is what you really need to know:

RAINFALL POTENTIAL: Again, this one is the most spatially-extensive hazard. Tropical Storm Fred will probably be an efficient rainfall producer. 3-6" of rainfall is forecast over portions of southeastern Alabama (where a SLGT RISK for excessive rain has been defined by the Weather Prediction Center). In summary, instances of flash flooding will be most likely across the southeastern quarter of the state (particularly far southeastern Alabama) late tomorrow into Tuesday morning.

The potential of flash flooding is NOT significant, but should still be respected. Rain is likely for much more of Alabama, but noteworthy flooding potential remains unlikely.

WIND POTENTIAL: High wind gusts will be possible, mainly across southeastern Alabama tomorrow afternoon/evening/overnight. The more southeast you are located, the higher the winds are projected to gust on average. Many could experience 30mph; some may experience 40mph. It will vary, but again, the more southeast you are located, the odds increase for more wind problems. Wind gusts could exceed 45-55mph (perhaps up to 60mph) over far southeastern Alabama where Fred is likely to be breathing more efficiently.

In summary, gusty winds will be possible all throughout southeast Alabama; brief tropical storm conditions (sustained winds ≥39mph) possible over far southeast Alabama. Power outages are certainly possible, but there is no guarantee.

TORNADO POTENTIAL: Isolated tornadoes appear possible across portions of far southeastern Alabama tomorrow afternoon/evening/overnight. Convective potential will be addressed more in-depth in a near-future weather briefing.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING: Includes Coffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry, and Houston Counties [far SE AL] until further notice. This is a perfect areal signifier to where we think Tropical Storm Fred will hit hardest (in AL).

For the rest of the state, hazardous weather appears unlikely at this time.

So.. that's it. Southeastern Alabama. Be ready. Tropical Depression Grace will also be addressed in a near-future weather briefing; we need to make it through Fred before we can focus on anything else.

If you have any questions, be sure to write them below; I will answer them with the best of my ability. Thank you for reading. Get some good rest tonight. #alwx

..Alex Roberts, Alabama Storm Alert.. [Revised: 8/15 10:20pm CDT]

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Remember, I am not a professional meteorologist, I do this because I LOVE the study of meteorology! I am however a trained storm spotter from the National Weather Service. Growing up in Birmingham (currently at The University of Alabama), I plan on attending OU's School of Meteorology program in the near-future.

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Alabama Storm Alert provides critical weather information concerning all walks of inclement weather through scientifically-rooted forecast discussions, graphical weather outlooks, and live watch/warning coverage serving the ENTIRE state of Alabama!

The weather network is run by 20 year-old Alex Roberts, an aspiring atmospheric scientist & college student. While Alabama Storm Alert emphasizes the distribution of severe weather outlooks & warning information, modeling solutions will also occasionally be shown to the public. Modeling solutions are NOT forecasts.

Posts on this page exponentially increase during inclement weather events (particularly severe weather). If you are interested in routinely receiving this critical weather information, then welcome to Alabama Storm Alert!

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August 21st 1:45 This hook is moving straight towards me in Morgan County. No warning yet. I'm staying vigilant!
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Y’all pray for Alex, he may have been impacted by this tornado emergency🥺
Happy World Meteorological Day! We sent a token of our appreciation for your informative posts, time, and in support of your education towards becoming a leader in Meteorology. We sent it via PayPal to [email protected]
Rotation coming over natural bridge before becoming tornadic as it came into winston county!! Video credits to my fiance, nobody owns rights to this video except for her! Kayla Winslett
Is there going to be another chance of storms on Wed?
ANY Wind is dangerous. The ground is SATURATED and trees will uproot easily. Watch the Oak Trees.
Hamilton, Al
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How does everyone think Hurricane Irma will effect Alabama? How/should we prepare?
Hey what's Rainbow City Looking like Etowah Co area as for as storms