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And, you can also request to get YOUR area's local weather. You will get the answer you're looking for!
Operating as usual
Confidence continues to gradually increase regarding the return of severe thunderstorm potential to virtually the ENTIRE northwestern quadrant of Alabama TOMORROW afternoon and evening ahead of a large frontal boundary. Any developing storm within this area could quickly grow upscale & generate damaging wind gusts (>60mph), isolated tornadoes (
A relatively significant severe weather episode could unfold today across portions of west-central through northern Alabama as a strong storm system moves over the region. Tornadoes (one or two possibly strong and/or long-tracked), swaths of damaging wind (60-70mph), and perhaps instances of hailstones (
Good morning, everyone. Unfortunately, severe thunderstorms could return to portions of the state tomorrow (Thursday, Feb. 17th). Virtually the ENTIRE STATE is within some risk of severe weather, with storms capable of generating swaths of damaging wind and perhaps a few tornadoes. At this time, we strongly believe that locations across the western regions of the state (W of I-65) are most at-risk of experiencing inclement weather. The threat will begin during the middle afternoon hours over the western portions of the state and gradually expand eastward throughout the state into the evening and perhaps overnight hours (E AL), though the threat will be consistently decreasing by then.
A large, dynamic storm system is forecast to affect portions of the central & eastern United States today into tomorrow (our day). A trailing cold front will accompany & precede these larger-scale synoptic features. Thunderstorms will originate within the moist pre-frontal environment off to our west during the morning into earlier afternoon hours. Storms will then protrude into western Alabama sometime during the afternoon (this is where storms are forecast to be strongest). Predominant storm mode (storm type) is anticipated to be linear, however meso-beta-scale (smaller-scale) areas of convection could periodically exhibit supercellular characteristics with broken bands, leading to transient corridors of enhanced tornado potential. Any area of thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and possibly a few tornadoes given more-than-enough environmental wind shear.
The storms will continue their voyage eastward, however they will begin weakening sometime within the early evening due limiting buoyancy & larger-scale forcing that is (or was) enacting on the system. Where this strict weakening trend occurs is unknown; it's one of our greatest forecasting challenges we face. This is why the tornado potential appears higher over western Alabama, and very low over eastern Alabama. A few strong to marginally severe wind gusts still appear possible across the eastern regions of the state during the later evening & overnight hours but organized severe weather encounters remain unlikely at this time.
Given the existing uncertainties and anticipated synoptic/mesoscale evolution, we are NOT anticipating a widespread or significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms. This particular scenario with respect to the data we've analyzed remains consistent with something very conventional, or a lower to middle echelon (normal) severe weather event. There could be a greater concentration of severe convective weather over portions of western Alabama (where the tornado risk is highest), but nothing we've rendered screams "outbreak" at this time. Even across western Alabama (the target zone), the potential for severe thunderstorms remains conditional to an extent, given the thermodynamic uncertainties. The system still garners our attention, nonetheless. We have a little more meteorology to do, so continue to monitor our page for updates, potentially communicating forecast refinements/adjustments in the near-term.
Regardless of expected storm/threat magnitude, all convective potential is serious. Though, there is never a guarantee that you'll experience inclement weather. In fact, the vast majority people don't. It's about the unlucky few who do – emphasizing the importance of being adequately prepared. This is the perfect time to make sure that your safety plan is all polished up. Make sure that you have MULTIPLE working sources of alert information available to you. Social media should not be your only source of receiving immediate warning information. More graphical weather information will be distributed a little later pertaining to tomorrow's convective weather scenario. This concludes our messages; enjoy your day today! NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER TODAY [02/16].
..#alwx..
[email protected]☈malert..
[email protected]
..9:03am CST 02/16/2022..
IMPORTANT MESSAGE: To everyone currently unaware.. an organized, large-scale severe thunderstorm event is within the realm of possibility this coming Thursday (February 17th) across a significant portion of the state as a dynamic storm system consolidates and advances towards the area. The confidence in the event itself is relatively substantial as the system has been carefully assessed within the continuum of operational guidance over the last few days. However, there is a multitude of smaller-scale & medium-scale uncertainties that have not been resolved yet, per usual. Threat magnitude, storm timing, storm type, etc. cannot be correctly deciphered at this time; just understand that Thursday could be an active day across the state.
➟ Will this event be significant?
We are simply too far out in range to determine the absolute threat magnitude. Our current best guess would be a 'middle-echelon' or 'middle-of-the-road' severe weather scenario.
➟ Will there be big tornadoes?
While the system looks favorable for a few tornadoes, at this time we are NOT anticipating a classic 'spring-like' tornado outbreak.
➟ When will the storms roll through?
Timing unfortunately is amongst our greatest uncertainties. Late morning through afternoon is our current best guess. Storms will be accelerating from west to east; regional time window for storms (location to location) generally becomes later with eastward direction.
➟ Will I get hit by a severe thunderstorm or tornado?
The probability of any one location being directly impacted by such catastrophe is always extremely small, even in our most vigorous tornado outbreaks. Proximity-based probabilistic odds can be drawn categorically to represent the chances of severe weather occurring across larger-scale coverage areas (e.g., SPC Convective Outlooks). There is never a guarantee of experiencing inclement weather.
➟ If the Storm Prediction Center is already issuing severe risk areas this far in advance, doesn't that mean that there has to be significant severe weather on Thursday?
No. It simply means that there is enough consistency/continuity amongst the data that is being considered to introduce risk areas, representing the presence of increased storm potential. It does not necessarily reflect projected threat magnitude/storm intensity.
It is important to stay up-to-date with the latest forecasting information. Routine graphical forecast synopses & discussions are to be rendered to our page once a deeper understanding of the system is achieved. This is a wonderful time to make sure that you possess multiple working sources of warning information. Social media should NOT be your only source of receiving immediate warning information. If you have any questions or concerns, do not hesitate to comment them below; they will be addressed. That is all for now; STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
..#alwx..
[email protected]☈malert..
[email protected]
..8:35am CST 02/13/2022..
Upon our early morning assessment of convective potential, it has been inferred that the threat of severe thunderstorms today has unfortunately increased. Thunderstorms are forecast to generally increase in coverage from west to east starting during the afternoon. Any evolving storm could quickly reach severe-criteria and generate swaths of damaging wind gusts and perhaps spawn isolated tornadoes. While the chance of a strong to severe storm is pretty much non-zero over most of the state, a greater concentrated severe weather scenario could develop over portions of southwest into central Alabama (this is especially true for southwest-central Alabama).
A cold front featuring a sharp temperature gradient will advance eastward throughout our area today. Thunderstorms are forecast to originate within a close proximity to the surface front. A few cells could gain some momentum out ahead of the predominant line. They could approach portions of western Alabama by the early afternoon and begin threatening the central into southwestern regions of the state (afternoon hours). Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are possible underneath potential severe thunderstorms. A few strong storms could make it into northern Alabama during this time period. The threat will begin diminishing from northwest to southeast (residual strong/severe threat may continue for portions of southern Alabama through the evening hours).
While some threshold of atmospheric uncertainties are still present, they have somewhat lessened due to the consistent improvements made by the latest rounds of operational guidance. While we are still NOT anticipating anything particularly widespread/significant, this is a consequential signature to maintain an appropriate sense of weather-awareness throughout the day w/ multiple working sources of alert information accessible. As always, there is absolutely NO guarantee that you'll experience inclement weather. That is all for now; enjoy your day! #alwx
..Alex Roberts..
..6:03am CST 02/03/2022..
Birmingham, AL
Remember, I am not a professional meteorologist, I do this because I LOVE the study of meteorology! I am however a trained storm spotter from the National Weather Service. Growing up in Birmingham (currently at The University of Alabama), I plan on attending OU's School of Meteorology program in the near-future.
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GR2Analyst - we are currently closely watching a severe thunderstorm (now post-severe) sweeping across Clarke County [SOUTHWESTERN AL] and is now moving into Northwest Monroe County. The storm prompted a Tornado Warning and then a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, but at this time.. we have NOT received any reports from these storms. At this time, all severe warnings for this storm have been cancelled.. but strong gusty winds & hail are still expected. We will still be here if any future warnings are needed. But the good news is that we seem to be documenting a weakening trend. #alwx
⚠️ THE THREAT CONTINUES: Severe thunderstorms remain possible across portions of SOUTH & CENTRAL Alabama through the wee hours! Damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and even large hail all remain possible. Hang in there guys! We are successfully getting through it together. The good news is that so far the magnitude of the event hasn’t been that high in Alabama.. but that could still change. We will continue to stay on top of it! #alwx
Make sure you have your RELIABLE SOURCE of warning information TURNED ON! #alwx
🌪 RadarScope depiction of East MS tornadic activity.. HEADS UP W-CENTRAL AL... #alwx
Update on the severe weather situation... #alwx
🌪 RAPID SUPERCELL INITIATION! Rapid severe thunderstorm-development seems to be taking place across SOUTHWESTERN Alabama! A LARGE & EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO has already been reported 30 minutes ago in Northern Mobile County! It is in your best interest if you are located ANYWHERE IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA to be closely monitoring the weather. More spin-ups are expected through the evening in RANDOM LOCATIONS across this region! #alwx
Brief live severe weather update, we got all models running! Pay close attention to warnings tonight... #alwx
Final cover video
TAKE A LOOK: I took this shot of a severe thunderstorm that rolled over Shelby & St. Clair counties in Alabama this afternoon. These are the types of storms that can destroy property and injure or even kill people. Always have a safety plan ready along with a reliable way to get warnings (i.e NOAA Weather Radio). It could save your life. Continue to stick with Alabama Storm Alert for the latest regarding where the next severe storms will strike! Don’t forget I do live Tornado Warning coverage across EVERY COUNTY in Alabama! #alwx
A TORNADO HIT US! This could have been your street.. and could have ended MUCH WORSE. Always make sure you can hear warnings, especially if they are during the NIGHT!! #alwx
Possible tornado went right ON TOP OF US at Alabama Storm Alert!! We’re okay.. but numerous downed trees, power lines, and roof damage are our problems over here. REMAIN WEATHER-AWARE THROUGH SUNRISE! #alwx
🌪🌪🌪 INCREDIBLE RadarScope VELOCITY DATA DEPICTING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO MOVING RIGHT OVER KGWX RADAR DOME (COLUMBUS AFB) #mswx
I care about your life. Please, it is SO IMPORTANT to be able to wake up during Tornado Warnings! They are much more dangerous at night! #alwx
Strong winds approaching tropical storm-force in Tuscaloosa (📷 The University of Alabama)... #alwx
⚠️ We are tracking potential severe thunderstorms.. care to watch a severe weather briefing? #alwx
A line of intense supercell thunderstorms currently extends across SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA with potential large hailstones to GOLF BALL SIZE & damaging winds to 60mph. These storms will be approaching MONTGOMERY & surrounding areas within the next hour! #alwx
Crazy tornadic storms rolling though the Texas Panhandle during this Friday evening! Amarillo is likely being inundated with near-hurricane force wind gusts and hail over golf ball size. I can only imagine how busy the National Weather Service there must be... 🤯 #txwx #phwx
⚠️⚠️ URGENT ⚠️⚠️ POTENTIALLY LARGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND IN HEIBERGER (PERRY COUNTY)! THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PERRY & SOUTHERN BIBB COUNTIES! TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY! #alwx
Going on a storm chase through St. Clair County.. I’ll let you guys know if I catch anything! CONFIRMED TORNADO IN RAGLAND (St. Clair County) #alwx
Ominous clouds & wind picking up in my current location (southern Birmingham). Thunderstorms, possibly severe, will be rolling into Birmingham and surrounding areas soon! RESPECT THE WARNINGS! #alwx
Here come the BIG storms! Storms will approach Birmingham & surrounding areas within the next couple of hours. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE! #alwx
Severe weather is likely once again this coming Saturday evening through early Sunday morning across Alabama. It is too early to determine the details but models are in fairly good agreement for another round. All modes of severe appear possible. Now is the time to be especially prepared for severe weather.. WE HAVE ENTERED METEOROLOGICAL SPRING! #alwx
A line of intense severe thunderstorms with isolated tornadoes on the ground continues to move across the Florida Peninsula and Southwest Georgia.. #flwx #FSUwx
🌪🌪🌪 ANOTHER TORNADO HEADING TOWARDS SMITHS STATION IN LEE COUNTY! #alwx #doubletrouble #urgent
🌪🌪🌪 LARGE VIOLENT TORNADO APPROACHING SMITHS STATION! #alwx #urgent
The threat of severe thunderstorms is ending. A final line of thunderstorms is pushing eastward across western Alabama, they have the potential to produce a few damaging winds gusts across central Alabama as they slowly weaken within the next couple of hours. #alwx
Closely watching the Fayette County supercell (will exit into northwest Walker County soon) and a tornado-producing storm from Mississippi that weakened in Pickens County that is about to move into Tuscaloosa County, still showing rotation. There seems to be a slow weakening trend, however, severe storms could still push eastward across central and northern Alabama through the evening. #alwx
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Alabama Storm Alert provides critical weather information concerning all walks of inclement weather through scientifically-rooted forecast discussions, graphical weather outlooks, and live watch/warning coverage serving the ENTIRE state of Alabama!
The weather network is run by 20 year-old Alex Roberts, an aspiring atmospheric scientist & college student. While Alabama Storm Alert emphasizes the distribution of severe weather outlooks & warning information, modeling solutions will also occasionally be shown to the public. Modeling solutions are NOT forecasts.
Posts on this page exponentially increase during inclement weather events (particularly severe weather). If you are interested in routinely receiving this critical weather information, then welcome to Alabama Storm Alert!
NOTE: Alabama Storm Alert is NOT affiliated with any branch of NOAA or any other governmental organization.
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