Multiple rounds of rain are expected this week across the WGRFC area, but no additional river concerns are anticipated at this time.
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Multiple rounds of rain are expected this week across the WGRFC area, but no additional river concerns are anticipated at this time.
To help plan your weekend...it starts with sunshine, and then a glancing blow of showers for the eastern 1/3 of Texas late Saturday/early Sunday...
High pressure is in control, with plenty of sunshine on tap. A quick moving upper level disturbance may have just enough "oomph" to help generate showers and thunderstorms starting late Saturday. Moisture is limited and the speed of the disturbance will help keep a lid on rainfall amounts.
No new river flooding expected.
Enjoy the weekend. NWS WGRFC forecasters will watch for the return of more widespread precipitation next week.
Here are the current drought status and drought trends over the past month from the National Drought Mitigation Center https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/.
Periods of rainfall are possible over the next two weeks. North Texas and parts of far East Texas (near Toledo Bend and Sam Rayburn reservoirs) will be more sensitive to any heavy rain, because they are drought free due to recent heavy rains.
On the other hand, drought has been increasing across much of southeast Texas, South Texas near the coast, and southern and eastern New Mexico over the past month due to below normal rain. Other parts of southern, eastern, and central Texas also remain in drought because of several months of below normal rainfall prior to the recent rains. More rain is needed in all of those areas.
A well behaved light precipitation event has impacted the NWS West Gulf RFC area. The light rain might help the ongoing drought a little...and will help build the snow pack over New Mexico and Colorado, Expect the precipitation to taper off, with drier weather to end the week. No river flooding expected.
Rains Again Starting Wednesday
Widespread rain is expected to begin this evening as an upper air disturbance arrives from the west and spreads across the region. Most of North and Central Texas will have cold rain overnight. A period with low temperatures supporting a brief period of a wintry mix or a brief transition to snow could occur for areas of northeast Texas.
The first disturbance will exit the region, however rain chances will continue on Wednesday as a stronger upper level disturbance approaches. The best chances for rain will exist across the eastern half of the region as the trough moves through Texas. Some isolated thunderstorms could become embedded in the broad rain activity during the afternoon hours.
There is a potential for minor flooding in areas that get hit with locally heavy bursts of rain, but overall no significant impacts are expected on main stem river locations.
Cool Wet Mid-week
Wintry precipitation is back in the forecast with a slight lull late Wednesday but returns Thursday into early weekend.
No hydrologic impacts expected with this system
More Precipitation Mid-Week
The upper Rio Grande expects new snow Tuesday with rain elsewhere farther east and south as the storm progresses through Texas.
No significant flood impacts expected at this time.
Widespread Rains to Return
Another frontal system will bring rains back to the area mid-week covering central and south Texas first then moving to the eastern half of Texas later through Saturday.
Locally heavy rains are possible with the potential for flash flooding. When in doubt Turn Around Don't Drown!
Wet Weekend ahead
Frontal systems continue to cause wide swings in temperatures, clear skies and then rain, drizzle and fog to many parts of the WGRFC forecast area.
Light to moderate rainfall will continue through Saturday. There will be a brief break in the weather until Wednesday ... then more rain.
Widespread rainfall has started across Texas and New Mexico. With plenty of moisture in place, NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center forecasters will closely monitoring radar estimates and rain gages over the next few days.
Soils are fairly dry, with more than 50% of Texas in "abnormally dry" or drought categories. This is needed rainfall. However, rainfall intensities will be key. Any areas of locally heavy rainfall will produce rises on creeks and streams. Be aware and prepared for the possibility of high water on roads. Do not drive through flooded roadways.
Wide-spread Rains for Thursday into Friday
Beneficial rains expected Thursday into Friday for much of Texas. Short term drought improvement is possible.
Cooler temperatures are in the forecast.
Not often do we get to forecast rainfall and it be considered "good news". The upper level pattern in place is favorable for a widespread precipitation event this week. The ingredients (lift, moisture, and instability) will come together for showers with isolated thunderstorms increasing in coverage as the week progresses.
The parameters for severe weather are nowhere near what forecasters were looking at for the event last weekend. Drought conditions (abnormally dry or worse) cover a little more than 50% of the NWS West Gulf RFC area.
So, severe weather threat is minimal, doesn't have a lot of factors that would lead to a widespread heavy rain event that would cause widespread river flooding, and the soils are dry and need the precipitation.
West Gulf RFC forecasters will watch the area just in case, and we will issue updates if a more discreet flood threat materializes.
Here is a look at the rainfall received over Texas during the past three days. Highest amounts were in North and Northeast Texas where some river flooding has been observed. The rest of the area that received rainfall benefited from this moisture and did not see river flooding. A couple days of drier weather will allow rivers to recede in the WGRFC area. Some of the slower downstream points on the Brazos, Trinity, Neches, and Sabine are still rising, but these are all below action stage criteria.
Minor river flood impacts continue this morning in parts of North Texas, especially on the rivers and streams upstream of Lewisville and Grapevine Lakes. The West Fork Trinity at Boyd is also in minor flood. The Trinity River at Dallas continues to rise just below action stage, as do the Cowleech and South Forks of the Sabine River. Even though heavy rain ended last night, keep a look out for any high water. Turn around don't drown.
Threat of severe weather is still the dominant message this evening into tonight.
However, flooding will be an issue as well, so if there is a reason to be out tonight, do not drive through flooded roadways. At night its difficult to judge how deep the water is.
The metroplex and surrounding areas is the primary area of potential flooding with flash flooding possible this evening and river flooding overnight into tomorrow.
Recommendation is if you are in the metroplex and do not have to be out and about, its a good day to stay safe and monitor weather alerts at home.
Severe weather is on the way with the primary hazard being damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.
However, flash flooding and even river flooding will be possible. So stay safe from ALL hazards as this weather moves through TX tomorrow into Saturday.
Two areas of concern will be the metroplex north to the border, and later in the evening overnight SE Texas along the lower Trinity, Neches, and Angelina Rivers. River flooding will be isolated and minor but flash flooding will be a concern tomorrow night.
Stay tuned to your local forecast office for updates on watches and warnings as the system develops.
Cold Front Headed Our Way ...
primarily for eastern half of Texas
Soil wetting rains are expected Thursday with heavier rains falling Friday afternoon into the weekend. Minor flooding is possible in the creeks and smaller tributaries of the Sabine, Neches and the upper Trinity river basins.
Friday Night Storm Event
A cold front associated with an upper level low will pass through the northern portions of Texas sometime Friday night. There is a possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms developing Friday afternoon and into the evening hours.
Heavy rainfall will also be possible with any line of storms along the cold front. No significant flooding is anticipated with this event..
5 Day Planner
Rainfall is possible mid-week into the weekend with strong to potentially severe weather possible on Friday in the eastern half of our area.
No significant flood impacts expected.
Very sunny weather should continue across Texas, New Mexico, and southern Colorado for the next few days. Many of you should then look for a change to wetter weather by late week. Temperatures will be warm in the day and cold at night, which along with the sunshine will allow for some evaporation of soil moisture headed into the rainier period.
Here is a quick view of how the past 3 days of rainfall lined up with the drought monitor.
The heaviest rains of 1/2 inch or more only reached the southeastern most portions of the Texas drought. Rain and snow mixed to the west was mostly west of the drought as well, although some portions of New Mexico that are in drought got some rain and snow.
Many places in Texas that are in the more severe drought categories got very little rain. For example, much of the Texas Hill Country got no rain at all.
Weekend Planner: Look for a sunny weekend across Texas, New Mexico, and southern Colorado. We hope you enjoy the rain free weather.
The drought stats are out...and not much changed.
The winter months are usually some of the driest. While some areas did receive some wanted rainfall, most of the NWS West Gulf RFC area remains in a holding pattern...
For the next 5 days, not much rainfall expected. So, expect little change (or maybe even degradation) in the drought statistics as we head into the New Year.
Precipitation will return to most of the NWS West Gulf RFC area for the New Year...
Most of the area will see light precipitation (snow in the higher elevations of New Mexico and Southern Colorado) courtesy of a fast moving (progressive) Pacific cold front. Moisture will be limited, with the exception of the immediate Texas Coast and East Texas.
More organized thunderstorms are possible across Southeast Texas and the Texas Coast Thursday. When factoring in that soils across the area are still damp from rainfall over the weekend, heavy rainfall from localized thunderstorms could produce river rises. NWS WGRFC forecasters will watch for the possibility of river flooding. Widespread significant river flooding is not expected.
By the weekend...high pressure returns, with a dry forecast on tap.
Next system in the forecast set to graze the Gulf Coast, which may bring some isolated heavy rain to coastal counties of Texas.
River flooding would be limited, but not ruled out completely. Small creeks and rivers in far Southeast Texas have a greater likelihood of rising out of banks late this week into the weekend.
Check back for updates as the forecast becomes clearer in the coming days. Next system in the forecast set to graze the Gulf Coast, which may bring some isolated heavy rain to coastal counties.
River flooding would be limited, but not ruled out completely. SE TX would be most likely area to be impacted.
Rain pushing out of Texas, no river flooding from this weekends rainfall.
However, soils are saturated and another rain event shaping up later this week. Couple that with winter season and very little vegetation to absorb the rainfall, flooding event rainfall amounts are lower than if we were in another season.
Simply put, less rain can generate flooding in these conditions.
So stay tuned as the forecast becomes clearer this week especially for areas around I 35 eastward.
Saturating rain on the way tomorrow into Sunday, and another system shaping up a few days after it.
Currently no flooding in the forecast, but check for forecast updates early next week.
It's Thursday, and the new drought statistics have been released...
Generally speaking, the winter months are a little drier. So even though a large part of the NWS West Gulf RFC area is below normal for precipitation over the last few months, the drought conditions are holding pretty steady.
New Mexico and Southern Colorado continue to receive needed snow and winter precipitation, and if this continues, the drought conditions will improve.
For Texas, the precipitation events have been spread out, with "manageable" amounts. No river flooding expected in the short term. More rainfall is possible this weekend, which should help keep things "status quo" for next week's drought update.
Who has snow on this Christmas morning in the WGRFC area of responsibility? The San Juan and Sangre de Cristo Mountains of Northern New Mexico and Southern Colorado have very good snow for this time of year, with 20 to 39 inches deep in most areas. The San Luis Valley in between has some snow depth too! Fresh snow fell overnight and this morning throughout the area.
If the total depth, averaged over the entire Upper Rio Grande basin, were melted down to snow water equivalent, we would see an average near 7 inches liquid which is above normal for this time of year for water supply. Another 0.1-1.5 inch water equivalent are forecast over the entire basin (highest amounts in the mountains of course) the next seven days, so there is plenty of snow out there for the New Year!
Through Christmas, the weather will be dry for most of the WGRFC area of responsibility. However, some fresh snow is likely coming by Christmas for the mountains of western Colorado and northwestern New Mexico, with light rain at lower elevations in the west.
After Christmas, the weather should turn wetter for a much larger portion of Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado. However, river flooding is not anticipated at this time.
Enjoy this Holiday Week!
It is raining in South Texas now this Friday morning, and that should continue today, with only light rain further north. Saturday will see some more light rain in southern and eastern portions of Texas, but then all of Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado should stay dry on Sunday. No flooding is expected this weekend.
Drought conditions remain across approximately half of the WGRFC area. With very little rain in the forecast over the next week, don't expect much drought improvement in the short term.
Cool and dry weather will continue for the WGRFC area through Thursday, but rain returns to the forecast on Friday for the eastern half of Texas. No river flooding is expected.
Showers and thunderstorms started in East Texas this morning. Expect this to continue today, with the highest amounts of rain in southeast Texas. After that, it will be dry for three days. No flooding is forecast for the WGRFC area.
A cold front will push through the WGRFC area today into Monday. As a result, rain is expected across Southeast Texas late Sunday into Monday. Snow is also forecast for northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. No river flooding is expected.
Snowpack slightly The Above Normal
The 2020 Water Supply Year is building a nice snowpack in the higher elevations of the upper Rio Grande watersheds so far this year.
Since we forecast for the Rio Grande, our responsibility extends all the way into south central Colorado starting at the headwaters of the upper Rio Grande in the San Juan Mountain range.
We provide water supply volume forecasts for irrigation and municipal requirements to various agencies and industries along the Rio Grande down to Elephant Butte Reservoir.
Also visit https://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfc_soil_moisture for the basin snow water equivalent map version of the upper Rio Grande.
Weekend plans? For most of the NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center area it will be dry. The exception, Northern New Mexico and Southern Colorado, where more snowfall (needed and wanted) is forecast this weekend.
A mostly dry cold front will cross the area later this weekend. Moisture will be limited, with only light precipitation expected over far Southeast Texas.
Drought conditions are holding steady across most of Texas and New Mexico. Some improvement was observed in West Texas from the Monday rainfall. There remain areas of extreme drought in Texas near Llano and Brackettville.
Visit the Drought Monitor website at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
for more drought information for the United States.
Cold Front Collides with Pacific Moisture
Pacific moisture has been streaming across southern Arizona and New Mexico and across Texas as a pacific low brings moisture along with cold temperatures causing moderate rainfall over drought-ridden Texas.
The rainfall should clear out of Texas by this evening. The next few days should be closer to seasonal averages.
No flooding is expected from the rainfall amounts.
Drought Monitor Animations
Texas saw a mixture of degradations and improvements this past week. The changes are subtle , but you can animate the changes week by week using the web page listed under the Page Title.
Instructions for Set Up
Set “Area type” to “State” and the “Area” to “Texas” then below the state image, you can set the “Speed” and “Previous Weeks” parameters and watch the changes right before your eyes.
There are many other settings available that may fit your needs better. Look at the “Current” and “Annual” (2000-2019) settings for animated GIF files as other alternatives.
3401 Northern Cross Blvd
Fort Worth, TX
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