US National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center

US National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center For the most current information visit: http://weather.gov/. The West Gulf River Forecast (WGR) provides hydrologic forecasts and warnings for rivers within its boundaries. Responses to our posts are made on a time-available basis.
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Mission: The National Weather Service (NWS) provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. NWS data and products form a national information database and infrastructure which can be used by other governmental agencies, the private sector, the public, and the global community.

Operating as usual

Rain set to begin this evening and continue for the next few days, primarily over much of western half of Texas.  Minor ...
09/08/2020

Rain set to begin this evening and continue for the next few days, primarily over much of western half of Texas.

Minor flooding is possible for the Upper Brazos, Colorado, as well as the Rio Grande River...mostly on the smaller tributaries that feed into these main rivers.

Flash flooding will also be a concern in areas that see heavy rainfall in short duration...particularly this evening overnight time frame.

Stay out of flooded roadways and stay safe this week.

WGRFC Bracing for Mid-week Storm A closed low will bring cooler weather with beneficial rains to our drought-impacted ar...
09/07/2020

WGRFC Bracing for Mid-week Storm

A closed low will bring cooler weather with beneficial rains to our drought-impacted areas Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

Amounts of 2-3 inches of rainfall are expected in the Edwards Plateau to the Big Bend country.

https://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/

Texas Reservoir StatusOn average the storage total for monitored reservoirs is down about 5% from 3 months ago but is se...
09/06/2020

Texas Reservoir Status

On average the storage total for monitored reservoirs is down about 5% from 3 months ago but is seasonally at median levels. 6 lakes are at or slightly above conservation pool,

There is plenty of room for flood control.

https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

The Navasota, Brazos and Trinity systems are experiencing and higher than normal river flows due to the widespread rainf...
09/05/2020

The Navasota, Brazos and Trinity systems are experiencing and higher than normal river flows due to the widespread rainfall received during this past week. If you are out on the rivers this weekend, please check the NWS river forecast or the current conditions at your local USGS stream gage. Be safe and be weather aware!

The rainfall will continue to taper off today in south and central Texas before a short drying trend begins. Enjoy the dry weather this weekend on Sunday and Monday before the rain returns again next week with a mid-week system. A strong early-season cold front should bring widespread rainfall to much of Texas next week. #txwx

Plans for your Labor Day Weekend?  Check the forecast.  Rainfall will taper off for the southern 1/2 of the WGRFC area, ...
09/04/2020

Plans for your Labor Day Weekend? Check the forecast. Rainfall will taper off for the southern 1/2 of the WGRFC area, leaving a dry end of weekend and Labor Day. Watch for higher riverflows from recent rainfall. Please be safe. #txwx

Heavy Rains to Tapper OffHeavy rains continue this morning in central Texas northeast to ArkLaTex region.but is expected...
09/04/2020

Heavy Rains to Tapper Off

Heavy rains continue this morning in central Texas northeast to ArkLaTex region.but is expected to taper off during the day.

New minor flooding is possible across parts of the Navasota and lower Brazos River systems. This rain will provide beneficial impacts to the drought stricken areas of Central and West Central Texas,

Latest Drought Statistics for the WGRFCOver the past 30 days, you can see that north Texas received well above average a...
09/03/2020

Latest Drought Statistics for the WGRFC

Over the past 30 days, you can see that north Texas received well above average average rainfall totals. Even with that amount most of the West Gulf River Forecast remains in drought.

Thanks in large part to Hurricane Laura, only patchy D0 conditions exist from central Oklahoma and eastern Texas eastward despite temperatures averaging 3 to 7 degrees above normal this past month. In contrast, serious drought is plaguing western Oklahoma and the central and western portions of Texas, with small areas of exceptional drought (D4) just south of the Texas Panhandle and over the interior Big Bend region.

Precipitation shortfalls of 4 to 6 inches for the past 60 days – and 6 to 8 inches for June-August -- cover parts of the Big Bend. Two- to five-inch deficits for the past 60 days were measured in the rest of central and western Texas, while June-August totals 4 to 6 inches less than normal affect most of central Texas and parts of western Oklahoma.

Updated Rainfall and River ImpactsLocally heavy rainfall up to 8+ inches fell across parts of the Northwest and North Ce...
09/03/2020

Updated Rainfall and River Impacts

Locally heavy rainfall up to 8+ inches fell across parts of the Northwest and North Central Texas. Many areas received 2-4 inches but no mainstem river flooding has been observed

Continuing rainfall this week will produce localized runoff events. But,he threat for heavy rain will taper off by the weekend. New river flooding is not expected

River Impacts This WeekLocally heavy rains up to 6+ inches in some places, fell over northwest and north central Texas o...
09/02/2020

River Impacts This Week

Locally heavy rains up to 6+ inches in some places, fell over northwest and north central Texas overnight. Some higher river flows have been reported in the mid-to-upper Trinity.

More rain is expected overnight that will likely generate more runoff. Our focus will be on central Texas ... mainly the Waco area.

Remember the slogan "Turn Around - Don't Drown' when you see water flooding a roadway,

Thunderstorm Hazards - Flash FloodsExcept for heat related fatalities, more deaths occur from flooding than any other ha...
09/01/2020
NWS JetStream - Thunderstorm Hazards: Flash Floods

Thunderstorm Hazards - Flash Floods

Except for heat related fatalities, more deaths occur from flooding than any other hazard. Why? Most people fail to realize the power of water. For example, six inches of fast-moving flood water can knock you off your feet.

While the number of fatalities can vary dramatically with weather conditions from year to year, the national 30-year average for flood deaths is 88. That compares with a 30-year average of 41 deaths for lightning, 68 for tornadoes and 45 for hurricanes.

https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/flood

Thunderstorm Hazards - Flash Floods Except for heat related fatalities, more deaths occur from flooding than any other hazard. Why? Most people fail to realize the power of water. For example, six inches of fast-moving flood water can knock you off your feet. While the number of fatalities can vary....

More Rain On Its WayA front will sag into North Texas andl slowly drift south as the week progresses.  Plenty of moistur...
09/01/2020

More Rain On Its Way

A front will sag into North Texas andl slowly drift south as the week progresses. Plenty of moisture in place, so expect thunderstorms. Rainfall totals by week's end will add up...with short range and medium range weather models all agreeing in at least 4-6 inch totals across portions of the area.

For interests along and west of I-35, this rainfall is needed and will help put a dent in the ongoing drought. For interests in the DFW Metro area and points north and east, soils are a little more saturated.

Minor river flooding should be expected around the heavier downpours, especially for some of the urban Trinity River basins and for the Upper Sabine Basin. This is more of a flash flood threat, so please stay up-to-date with the latest from your local NWS Weather Forecast Offices...

Heavy rain returns to the forecast this week across West and North Texas. While this rain could be beneficial and provid...
08/31/2020

Heavy rain returns to the forecast this week across West and North Texas. While this rain could be beneficial and provide some drought relief (specifically for West Texas), river flooding will also be possible for parts of North Texas. Additionally, minor flooding continues for the Lower Sabine as last week's floodwaters from Hurricane Laura move towards the Gulf.

Rain is expected across much of Texas this week, and some drought-stricken areas may get some relief. River rises are po...
08/30/2020

Rain is expected across much of Texas this week, and some drought-stricken areas may get some relief. River rises are possible but new flooding is not expected at this time. However, the Lower Sabine River remains elevated as floodwaters from Hurricane Laura continue to make their way into the Gulf of Mexico.

Water levels on the Lower Sabine and Neches River will remain elevated this weekend.  High tides are in the early mornin...
08/28/2020

Water levels on the Lower Sabine and Neches River will remain elevated this weekend. High tides are in the early morning hours so thats when parts of SE Texas will have higher flows. Rivers should be back in banks by next week.

Rainfall on its way today should not impact ongoing river flooding.

Hurricane Laura Plowing through LouisianaLaura made landfall overnight, just east of the WGRFC area.  With this slight e...
08/27/2020

Hurricane Laura Plowing through Louisiana

Laura made landfall overnight, just east of the WGRFC area. With this slight eastward offset, the storm surge and the impacts were shifted slightly east of the WGRFC Rivers.

Heavy rainfall associated with Laura will exit the area later today. Flooding, mostly minor with some moderate, will be confined to far Southeast Texas.

Update for Flooding...Hurricane Laura is still a strong Category 4 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 150mph.Expect ...
08/26/2020

Update for Flooding...
Hurricane Laura is still a strong Category 4 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 150mph.
Expect "unsurvivable" surge and 8-12 (isolated 18) inches of rain for the SE TX/SW LA coast. Inland, 5-10 (isolated 15) will generate flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding. Be very careful at night! #txflood #txwx

River Flood Impacts from LauraImpacts:...o Surge influence river flooding may cause Moderate to Major flooding for Lower...
08/26/2020

River Flood Impacts from Laura

Impacts:

...o Surge influence river flooding may cause Moderate to Major flooding for Lower Sabine and Neches Rivers

...o Rainfall influenced river flooding limited to isolated minor flooding

Rainfall amounts are 5-10” widespread, mainly along the Sabine River.

...o Isolated 15” are very likely and could cause significant flooding particularly near the coast

...o Current forecast does not cause much river flooding north of lakes

Surge based river flood impacts are very dependent on where the Northeast side of storm pushes on shore, regardless of lakes or marshland

Follow our web page for forecasts at the following location
https://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/

Sharing Laura Visible Satellite imageryJust a quick image of Hurricane Laura this morning as it intensifies.
08/26/2020

Sharing Laura Visible Satellite imagery

Just a quick image of Hurricane Laura this morning as it intensifies.

As Hurricane Laura Approaches - PrepareWhile hurricanes pose the greatest threat to life and property, tropical storms a...
08/25/2020
Hurricane Safety Tips and Resources

As Hurricane Laura Approaches - Prepare

While hurricanes pose the greatest threat to life and property, tropical storms and depression also can be devastating. The primary hazards from tropical cyclones (which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) are storm surge flooding, inland flooding from heavy rains, destructive winds, tornadoes, and high surf and rip currents.

https://www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane

Hurricanes are among nature's most powerful and destructive phenomena. On average, 12 tropical storms, 6 of which become hurricanes form over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico during the hurricane season which runs from June 1 to November 30 each year. In the Central Pacific Ocean...

Laura Zeroes in on TexasLaura rain bands could begin as early as Wednesday Night..o Rainfall widespread 4-8”, Isolated 1...
08/25/2020

Laura Zeroes in on Texas

Laura rain bands could begin as early as Wednesday Night

..o Rainfall widespread 4-8”, Isolated 12” possible
..o INTENSITY MATTERS!!!

To affect the Lower Trinity River, the Neches, Angelina, and Sabine Rivers

..o Locally heavy rainfall may cause significant flooding particularly near the coast
..o Surge may generate river flooding concerns along lower Sabine River near Orange

Any flooding will be dependent on rainfall intensity along with accumulation, and less on the center of circulation

Check back at 3:15PM for Hurricane Preparedness post.

Marco and Laura to Affect Texas Gulf CoastMarco will cross into Texas on Tuesday..o Lower flood threat ..o Will saturate...
08/24/2020

Marco and Laura to Affect Texas Gulf Coast

Marco will cross into Texas on Tuesday
..o Lower flood threat
..o Will saturate soils in the Sabine and Neches Rivers
..o Locally heavy rainfall is possible

Laura will head into Texas overnight Wednesday
..o Higher rain amounts than Marco
..o River flooding possible - Sabine, Angelina and Neches
..o Locally heavy rainfall may cause significant flooding
particularly near the coast

Any flooding will be dependent more on rainfall intensity along with accumulation and less on the exact track

Keep track of the latest at
https://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/

Back-to-Back Storms to Hit East TexasStormsMarco will cross into Texas on Tuesday. The storm will saturate soils in port...
08/23/2020

Back-to-Back Storms to Hit East Texas

Storms

Marco will cross into Texas on Tuesday. The storm will saturate soils in portions of the Sabine and Neches River basins. Locally heavy rainfall is possible.

Laura will potentially head into Texas early Thursday with higher rainfall amounts than Marco now being forecast.

Rainfall

Current rainfall forecast over the next five days is for 5 to 10 inches with locally higher amounts which is the combined total from both storms.

River Flooding

River flooding along Lower Sabine and Neches is possible
Locally heavy rainfall may cause significant flooding particularly near the coast. Any flooding will be dependent on the storm track, rainfall intensity, rainfall amount and soil saturation.

Keep in touch with https://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/ for the latest forecast information.

Back-to-Back Storms Hit East TexasStormsMarco will cross into Texas on Tuesday. The storm will saturate soils in portion...
08/23/2020

Back-to-Back Storms Hit East Texas

Storms

Marco will cross into Texas on Tuesday. The storm will saturate soils in portions of the Sabine and Neches River basins. Locally heavy rainfall is possible.

Laura will head into Texas early Thursday with higher rainfall amounts than Marco possible.

River Flooding

River flooding along Lower Sabine and Neches is possible
Locally heavy rainfall may cause significant flooding particularly near the coast. Any flooding will be dependent on the storm track, rainfall intensity, rainfall amount and soil saturation.

Keep in touch with https://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/ for the latest forecast information.

Marco Heading our wayTropical Storm Marco is expected to impact the Texas Gulf Coast next week  Locally heavy rainfall i...
08/22/2020

Marco Heading our way

Tropical Storm Marco is expected to impact the Texas Gulf Coast next week Locally heavy rainfall is expected

Flooding Possible

Any flooding will be dependent on rainfall intensity AND amount

West Gulf RFC forecasters will carefully watch the coastal basins between Corpus Christi and Beaumont for responses to heavy rainfall.

https://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/

Tropical System headed for SE TXA tropical system is expected to impact SE TX early next week  Locally heavy rainfall is...
08/21/2020

Tropical System headed for SE TX

A tropical system is expected to impact SE TX early next week Locally heavy rainfall is expected

Some areas along the coast are running 150 to 300 percent of normal based on the past month’s observed rainfall

This implies ample vegetation (even if soils are running “wetter than normal for August”), so runoff will be limited at first

Any flooding will be dependent on rainfall intensity AND amount!

For the latest info - visit
https://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/

Wrapping up water conditions in Texas, the drought monitor shows dry soils spreading across most of the state as well as...
08/20/2020

Wrapping up water conditions in Texas, the drought monitor shows dry soils spreading across most of the state as well as the West Gulf area in New Mexico.

The North TX DFW area conditions improved with the recent rainfall, but Central and West TX continue to see dry conditions degrade slightly. It has stretched towards the Gulf Coast Region as well having dry soils along the Lower Colorado and Brazos Rivers.

Tropical Depression 14 advisories have begun with the track moving in the direction of Texas.

Over the past 3 days we have shown river levels are near or below normal, reservoir levels are slightly below normal, and soil conditions are dry for West and Central Texas, more near normal for most of the Gulf Coast.

So now we will see what kind of rainfall may occur from tropical activity which will come into better focus this weekend.

Yesterday we looked at river status, today lets look at the reservoirs around TX thanks to the Texas Water Development B...
08/19/2020

Yesterday we looked at river status, today lets look at the reservoirs around TX thanks to the Texas Water Development Board's monitoring website.

Only 4 reservoirs are above conservation (or full) levels leaving most reservoirs available to store flood waters. This is normal for the summer months in Texas with high evaporation rates and little rainfall.

Overall reservoir levels are down 5% over the past 3 months at around 81.6% for the entire state. This is slightly below normal for this time of year so overall reservoirs in decent shape for Texas

The tropical activity is picking up, so its a good time to check in on the gage status around the state to see how the r...
08/18/2020

The tropical activity is picking up, so its a good time to check in on the gage status around the state to see how the river levels look in case significant rainfall heads this way.

Only 15% of the gages are above average, mostly in areas that got rain past couple of days. 47% of gages are below average displaying that the rivers have room to absorb some water.

We will continue to take a look at conditions the next few days while keeping a watchful eye on the tropics.

1/2" to 2" of rain for E TX as front continues to push through the state bringing much needed heat relief and rainfall. ...
08/17/2020

1/2" to 2" of rain for E TX as front continues to push through the state bringing much needed heat relief and rainfall.

Forecast for another 1" or so in Central TX today. No river flooding but a nice break from the heat!

Rivers remain in bank with no flooding currently or forecast for Texas.  Welcome rainfall tomorrow night may spell a lit...
08/15/2020

Rivers remain in bank with no flooding currently or forecast for Texas.

Welcome rainfall tomorrow night may spell a little relief from the heat but river levels will remain below criteria.

Drought conditions continue to spread across the WGRFC area, and with little rainfall expected over the next week, short...
08/13/2020

Drought conditions continue to spread across the WGRFC area, and with little rainfall expected over the next week, short-term drought relief is unlikely.

For more information about this week's national drought monitor update, visit https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

On average, Texas reservoirs are 82.6% full, which is a decrease from a month ago. Reservoirs in the west tend to be muc...
08/12/2020

On average, Texas reservoirs are 82.6% full, which is a decrease from a month ago. Reservoirs in the west tend to be much less full than those further east, but we have seen levels come down in the last month in North Texas as well. Reservoir data is provided by the Texas Water Development Board at https://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

This is the rainfall for the WGRFC area of responsibility for the past seven days. This rainfall will be included in the...
08/11/2020

This is the rainfall for the WGRFC area of responsibility for the past seven days. This rainfall will be included in the drought update on Thursday from the US Drought Monitor. The main area that is in drought that got some modest rain was southeast New Mexico into western Texas. The middle of Texas stayed completely dry and most of New Mexico had less than half an inch of rain.

Monsoonal rain remains in the forecast across New Mexico over the next few days, and afternoon showers and storms are fo...
08/09/2020

Monsoonal rain remains in the forecast across New Mexico over the next few days, and afternoon showers and storms are forecast across the TX Gulf Coast. Elsewhere, expect hot and dry conditions to prevail.

The new drought numbers are out...While the Texas Coast and East Texas are mostly "drought free", slow expansion and int...
08/06/2020

The new drought numbers are out...

While the Texas Coast and East Texas are mostly "drought free", slow expansion and intensification over West Texas and Southern New Mexico continues. The monsoon out west has been too hit and miss to help...

August is usually a hot and dry month. Expect the drought to slowly expand and intensify as the month wears on...

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