No Apology, VA Meteorology

No Apology, VA Meteorology This page provides forecasts regarding weather events impacting VA.
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On this day in 2003 (September 6th), Hurricane Isabel formed in the eastern Atlantic. It went on to make landfall in the...
09/06/2026

On this day in 2003 (September 6th), Hurricane Isabel formed in the eastern Atlantic. It went on to make landfall in the Outer Banks on September 18th and became Virginia’s costliest weather disaster at the time causing an estimated $1.85 billion in damage.

Gusts to 60mph and 4-8” of rain were common across the Shenandoah Valley. Some locations along the Blue Ridge received as much as 20”.

Along the coast, Isabel packed an even bigger punch with a gust of 107mph recorded at Gwynns Island in Mathews County, 100 mph at Reedville, and 92 mph in Hampton.

The front has pushed to our south and cooler, drier air is beginning to filter in as Canadian high pressure nudges in. P...
09/06/2026

The front has pushed to our south and cooler, drier air is beginning to filter in as Canadian high pressure nudges in. Parts of western VA will struggle to get out of the 70s today with dew points creeping down towards 60. Really nice! Heat and humidity steadily creep up again after today.

Nothing like a morning thunderstorm. What a storm!
09/05/2026

Nothing like a morning thunderstorm. What a storm!

We have one more day of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as a cold front sags south through the area, this ev...
09/05/2026

We have one more day of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as a cold front sags south through the area, this eventually setting up what looks to be a very nice second half of the Labor Day Weekend as high pressure builds in behind it ushering in cooler temperatures and less humid conditions.

Latest radar shows a cluster of showers and embedded storms diving southeast across WV, these likely pushing into the greater Harrisonburg area by mid to late morning so probably going to be a wet start to the JMU/Liberty game at noon. Behind this initial round, there will be some scattered pop up activity through the afternoon and evening, really anywhere across the state could get hit. There is some severe potential with highest chances south of I-64.

Heat and humidity returns next week so enjoy the nice break tomorrow!

Football shouldn’t start until late September, but it turned out to be a pretty decent night for it across the Shenandoa...
09/05/2026

Football shouldn’t start until late September, but it turned out to be a pretty decent night for it across the Shenandoah Valley.

Some pretty wild sun-lit mammatus clouds over Elkton this evening!
09/02/2026

Some pretty wild sun-lit mammatus clouds over Elkton this evening!

With summer coming to a close, here's a look at how things stacked up against the 1991–2020 climatological normal.As a w...
09/02/2026

With summer coming to a close, here's a look at how things stacked up against the 1991–2020 climatological normal.

As a whole, it was a pretty warm summer across most of the state. We were near normal here in Harrisonburg (+0.3°F) but parts of the Piedmont really toasted. I don't have the numbers in front of me but have to believe this was probably a top 10 warmest summer in and around Charlottesville.

Precipitation was definitely more variable. After a really dry start, a lot of areas recovered in the precipitation department. We finished just 0.12" below average here in Harrisonburg with parts of the I-95 corridor from Richmond to Fredericksburg really cashing in on some big-time thunderstorm rains in August eliminating any drought there.

It's still running quite dry from the southern Shenandoah Valley down into Southside which makes sense given that many of these areas are still dealing with D1 (Moderate) to D2 (Severe) drought on the latest Drought Monitor.

Happy first day of meteorological fall! Pretty toasty out. Here’s a look at “feels like” temperatures as of 5:30pm. Will...
09/01/2026

Happy first day of meteorological fall! Pretty toasty out. Here’s a look at “feels like” temperatures as of 5:30pm. Will be even hotter and more humid tomorrow!

Happy last day of meteorological summer! It’s going to be a hot next several days with the heat likely peaking on Wednes...
08/31/2026

Happy last day of meteorological summer! It’s going to be a hot next several days with the heat likely peaking on Wednesday.

That said, it is looking increasingly likely that the ridge breaks down and we cool down nicely for Labor Day Weekend so we at least have that to look forward to.

Image: NBM forecast highs for this afternoon

It’s hard to believe but Harrisonburg has now gone 9 straight winters without a 10+ inch snowstorm. The last was January...
08/30/2026

It’s hard to believe but Harrisonburg has now gone 9 straight winters without a 10+ inch snowstorm. The last was January 22–23, 2016, when 25 inches fell — the fourth winter in a row with a 10+ inch storm.

This 9-winter stretch is now tied for Harrisonburg’s longest on record (1948–1957). If Harrisonburg makes it through this coming winter without a 10+ inch snowstorm, it will set a record for the longest such drought since records began in 1893.

Long story short, we’re due.

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