PONARS Eurasia

11/29/2023

🚨New PONARS Policy Memo: Russian Military Keynesianism: Who Benefits from the War in Ukraine? by Volodymyr Ishchenko, Ilya Matveev, and Oleg Zhuravlev

How has Russia’s economy managed to survive the War in Ukraine? How do economic factors influence civilian support for the conflict? Read on for a discussion of these topics

Image license/credit ponars policy memo no. 865 (PDF) How has the transformation of the Russian economy and society in response to the challenges posed by the invasion of Ukraine affected popular support for the war? Scholars puzzled by the consistent majority support for the “special military ope...

11/27/2023

🚨New PONARS Policy Memo: The South Caucasus between Putin and Erdoğan - Is Russia on Its Way Out?

Alexander Iskandaryan finds that Russia is no longer a hegemon in the South Caucasus, which may lead to further instability and competition in the region. Read more below:

Image license/credit PONARS Policy memo no. 864 (PDf) Over the past few years, a series of wars have caused tectonic shifts that have upset the architecture of the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, emerged victorious from the 44-Day War of 2020 after a quarter-century in which Armenia ha...

11/22/2023

Georgian experts are divided on what risks are most detrimental to the country's resilience and preparedness, according to a new policy paper from Georgian Institute of Politics experts Kornely Kakachia, Salome Kandelaki, and Bidzina Lebandize.

Russia’s unprovoked aggression against Ukraine and subsequent confrontation between Moscow and the West has had far-reaching implications for the entire Black Sea region, including Georgia

11/17/2023

🚨New PONARS Policy Memo: For Victory in Freedom: Why Ukrainian Resilience to Russian Aggression Endures by Mikhail Alexseev and Serhii Dembitskyi

New data indicate that Ukrainians remain committed to driving Russia out of Ukrainian territory and would struggle to accept a peace agreement that entails a loss of territory.

For more on the implications of these findings, read the full piece here:

Image license/credit Not only do the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians remain resolute in their commitment to driving Russia out of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory, but this commitment is strongly fused with a determination to be a healthy, thriving democracy and to honor and aven...

11/17/2023

Thank you to all who joined yesterday's edition of New Voices on Eurasia "Belarus at War: Domestic Crisis and Relations with Russia" with Ryhor Nizhnikau.

If you missed attending live, or would like to revisit any of yesterday's points, the recording is now available here:

Ryhor Nizhnikau presents on Belarus at War: Domestic Crisis and Relations with RussiaOriginally recording November 16, 2023 and the George Washington Univers...

11/15/2023

"The U.S. government has so far not focused on the one thing in its power to hurt the Russian economy—that is, increasing the supply of oil to the world," Maria Snegovaya and John V.C. Nye write for Foreign Policy

The West must get tougher on oil revenues to build a more effective regime.

11/14/2023

Join us this Thursday for the next installment of New Voices on Eurasia, the final edition before the holidays! Ryhor Niznhikau will present on "Belarus at War: Domestic Crisis and Relations with Russia."

More information and registration here https://forms.gle/P5STJKArVq26ZU7m7

11/13/2023

Introducing the latest PONARS Online Academy Video on the history of race and racism in Imperial Russia and the USSR, authored by Eugene Avrutin and featuring Marina Mogilner:

11/10/2023

🚨New PONARS Policy Memo: What Does Support for Russia Mean? Evidence from Gagauz Yeri, Moldova by Kyle Marquardt

Analyses of data from a 2023 survey of the largely Russian-speaking Moldovan region of Gagauz Yeri (GY) demonstrate suggest that there no clear, consistent link between speaking Russian and support for Russia (in various forms), and furthermore that support for Russia on one metric does not necessarily indicate support for Russia on any other.

Read the full memo here!

Image license/credit ponars policy memo no. 862 (PDF) The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has intensified concerns about support for Russia among ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking populations in the former Soviet Union. In countries ranging from Kazakhstan to Lithuania, ethnic Russians and Russi...

11/09/2023

🚨New PONARS Policy Memo: Negotiating Security with Autocracies: Implications for the Russo-Ukrainian War by Mikhail Troitskiy.

Can peace realistically be negotiated with autocracies that do not accept international norms? What does this mean for the war in Ukraine?

Read the full memo here and head to our YouTube page to watch the author's presentation from our recent Fall Policy Conference.📷

Image license/credit ponars policy memo no. 861 (PDF) The ongoing war against Ukraine has cast into relief the dilemma of choosing between an imperfect peace, on the one hand, and continued fighting in pursuit of a fairer solution, on the other. Aside from the moral aspect, the main argument against...

11/08/2023

Thank you to all who made last week's fall conference as success! We're happy to share that recordings from the day's presentations are now available on our YouTube channel.

If you couldn't join us last week, or if you simply want to revisit the topics discussed, visit the link below:

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLnYhtecpqY0iKexd-wxrHUBXY4wEiA0QS

11/07/2023

Tetyana Malyarenko () and Stefan Wolff write that if domestic and external support for Zelenskyy waiver, he may be forced to rethink his no-concessions policy.

Ukraine needs some successes on the battlefield if it is to maintain international support.

11/07/2023

Simon Saradzhyan warns that the increasing average age of Ukraine’s soldiers presents a problem for the future war effort.

In the Thick of It A blog on the U.S.-Russia relationship Average Age of Ukrainian Soldiers Is Past 40 and That Could Be a Problem November 03, 2023 Simon Saradzhyan Time journalist Simon Shuster has just published an article titled “Volodymyr Zelensky’s Struggle to Keep Ukraine in the Fight,”...

11/03/2023

Calls for Ukraine to exchange territory for peace fail to properly account for the costs to Ukrainians left under occupation, Ralph Clem writes for The Bulwark

Any negotiated settlement that leaves Russian forces in Ukraine would condemn Ukrainians to horrible abuses.

10/26/2023

New PONARS Policy Memo: All Blushes of Autumn: Russia’s Evolving “Red Lines” in the War on Ukraine by Polina Sinovets.

The Kremlin has made use of nuclear rhetoric throughout the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Yet many of the so-called "red lines" have turned out to not to be genuine. What might truly lead Russia to move from words to actions?

Read on below and join the PONARS Conference on Monday, October 30th to hear Dr. Sinovets present the research behind this memo.

Image license/credit PONARS Policy Memo No. 860 (PDF) Early in the morning of February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Russia’s brutal attack on Ukraine. In his televised speech, he stated: “Whoever tries to hinder us or threaten our country or our people should know that Ru...

10/26/2023

There's still time to join us this Monday! RSVP here: https://forms.gle/a4J6Wn4f7EU3oJDAA

10/24/2023

"Those making public-facing claims about sanctions’ effectiveness should focus on three things: identifying the goals of sanctions, drawing on appropriate evidence, and avoiding confirmation bias."

Read more in our new PONARS Policy Memo "Are Sanctions on Russia Effective? How (Not) to Inform the Debate" by Juliet Johnson

https://www.ponarseurasia.org/are-sanctions-on-russia-effective-how-not-to-inform-the-debate%ef%bf%bc/

10/20/2023

Mark your calendars! The PONARS Fall Conference is just around the corner on Monday, October 30th. Click below for more information and to register:

https://www.ponarseurasia.org/2023-annual-policy-conference/

10/12/2023

New PONARS Policy Memo: Russia in the Western Balkans since the War in Ukraine: Detachment, Diminished Status, and the Agency of Local Actors

Janko Šćepanović examines Russia's relations with the Western Balkans since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, contextualizing them both historically and with an eye towards the agency of the regional states.

Read it here:

Image license/credit PONARS Policy Memo No. 857 (PDF) In April 2023, James Rubin, the newly appointed head of the U.S. State Department’s Global Engagement Center, visited several Western Balkan countries and warned that Russian disinformation, promulgated primarily by Serbian media platforms, had...

10/11/2023

The conflict between the Polish P*S party and the EU over LGBTIQ policies is nowhere near an end, writes Alexandra Yatsyk.

Read her blog post for The International Spectator here:
https://www.theinternationalspectator.com/post/the-dead-end-of-illiberal-biopopulism-poland-eu-gender-wars-on-the-eve-of-2023-general-elections

Or the full research article here:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03932729.2023.2253060

- by Alexandra Yatsyk - research article available here On the 1st of October, Warsaw experienced the march for a “tolerant, open and European” Poland, the largest since 1989. The turnout reached close to one million people and the event took place just two weeks before the general elections, wh...

10/10/2023

New PONARS Policy Memo: How Foreign Funders Should Strengthen Their Support for Civil Society: A Case Study of USAID in Kazakhstan by Sebastien Peyrouse

Based on interviews with Kazakh Civil Society leaders, this memo finds that foreign funders should redistribute focus to a larger number of smaller partner organizations across more segments of the population.

Read the full memo here:

Image license/credit PONARS Policy Memo No. 856 (PDF) U.S. and other foreign donors have engaged in Kazakhstan to support the development of an independent and sustainable civil society, which they see as a pillar of democratization, human rights, and economic and social development. Yet thirty year...

10/06/2023

Thank you to all who joined us online and in-person for yesterday's New Voices on Eurasia talk with Elizabeth Plantan. If you missed joining us live, view the recording at the link below:

https://youtu.be/um24XQuwB_I

10/05/2023

Happening this afternoon! RSVP here: https://forms.gle/SEnXJmhMdXh9MmsdA

Join us this Thursday for the next edition of New Voices on Eurasia. Elizabeth Plantan draws on interviews with Russian exiled activists and their supporters during fieldwork in Estonia and Germany in 2022 and 2023 to understand how they are continuing their work from abroad.

RSVP here to attend online or in person: https://forms.gle/D1FfCHn46a8MwfbXA

10/04/2023

Russia is banking on strong economic performance and contracting Western support in its war plans, Pavel Baev writes for Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) but a "stagnant and inflation-affected economy" suggests this plan may fail.

Russia’s strategy for prevailing in the long war with Ukraine does not have a protracted timeline and looks no further than 2024. This strategy is based on three premises: economic performance will keep the war machine going; Western support for Ukraine will erode and contract; and the Ukrainian a...

10/02/2023

Join us this Thursday for the next edition of New Voices on Eurasia. Elizabeth Plantan draws on interviews with Russian exiled activists and their supporters during fieldwork in Estonia and Germany in 2022 and 2023 to understand how they are continuing their work from abroad.

RSVP here to attend online or in person: https://forms.gle/D1FfCHn46a8MwfbXA

10/02/2023

in a new RAND Corporation report Samuel Charap and co-authors find that (based on pre-2022 research) Russia is most likely to escalate conflict in countries that were part of the Soviet Union.

10/02/2023

As the traditional fighting season draws to a close, Simon Saradzhyan, Kate Davidson, and Angelina Flood caution against using weather alone to predict the cadence of Russian and Ukrainian movements.

(via Russia Matters)

In the Thick of It A blog on the U.S.-Russia relationship Can Weather Predict Operational Tempo in Ukraine This Winter? September 29, 2023 Kate Davidson, Angelina Flood and Simon Saradzhyan Speaking to BBC on Sept. 10, 2023, America’s outgoing chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) Mark Mille...

09/28/2023

Who are Russian wartime migrants? How do they feel about political reforms and transitional justice? Why do their opinions matter?

These are the questions addressed yesterday at the year's first New Voices on Eurasia talk. If you missed seeing it live, view the recording here, and stay tuned for information about our second New Voices talk happening next week!

https://youtu.be/urTNjvB191A

09/28/2023

What is the Putin regime's ideology? How is it disseminated? Is it effective in bolstering his power?

These are the questions Maria Snegovaya, Michael Kimmage, and Jade McGlynn take on in a new report for CSIS | Center for Strategic & International Studies

Read the full report below:

Since Putin's early days and throughout much of his rule, there has been a deliberate effort at a state-promoted vision of Russia rooted in Soviet and imperial Russian history.

09/26/2023

In uncertain U.S. congressional approval for military aid and tensions over EU grain imports, Tetyana Malyarenko and Stefan Wolff see "the first serious signs of a fraying consensus" on support for Ukraine.

(via The Conversation US)

As the war nears 600 days, there are signs that support for Ukraine could be beginning to waver in some parts.

09/20/2023

Join us this Friday for a discussion with Ambassador John Herbst on Civil Society and Ukrainian resilience. RSVP here to receive further details:

https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0013iyK3jsb3bi7fPbBRE1CuVJIpV9zcDGZM1029ZqvoTDuS1VmUGKuBSifiAoxl3frCl8FfaszYOa3IWsTsWJDjwBT0WB1qsM9OXD3Gf_yqUegGwfm8aqJxxA0NSoJBDS4lY-5-yelO63PbUJNP6mrS9Fy4RCSFrMa&c=xh5wMmmNYvVJYseRc2Nl3gB9Z2Q8jy5hTbDphBqvWKAa-tDTx0mmnw==&ch=SlBtCjND8_JYuXlFxRfG323OsIb27Qvb4HbqE67ZtzwLiTAGi0hdNA==

09/20/2023

"Sending a message to Moscow has always been an important aspect of these visits, as has demonstrating American staying power and showing that the US is not going away." Volodymyr writes on Secretary Blinken's recent visit to Kyiv.

More in a new PONARS Commentary:

Image license/credit Secretary Blinken’s recent visit to Ukraine stands out in a number of ways. Blinken had not been in Ukraine for exactly a year, since September 8, 2022. This is quite a long time considering the level of engagement between Kyiv and Washington since the start of Russia’s full...

09/18/2023

New PONARS Policy Memo: Explaining Ukraine’s Resilience to Russia’s Invasion: The Role of Local Governance and Decentralization Reform by Andrii Darkovich, Myroslava Savisko, and Maryna Rabinovych.

Decentralization has contributed to Ukraine's resilience in the face of the full-scale invasion, the authors write. How do other factors like urban/rural settings, horizontal ties between communities, and past experiences with violence or other challenges impact resilience? And what can this tell us about governance in times of crisis? Read the full memo here:

POnars policy memo no. 855 (PDF) Ukraine’s resilience to Russia’s war of aggression came as a surprise to politicians, experts, and the general public worldwide. Popularly labeled “invincibility,” Ukraine’s state and societal resilience made the country an “inspiration to the entire free...

09/14/2023

Announcing the first New Voices on Eurasia talk of the semester! Join us Wednesday, September 27th for "Political Reforms and Transitional Justice for Postwar Russia: Evidence from In-depth Interviews with Russian Wartime Migrants" with Mikhail Turchenko. RSVP here: https://forms.gle/51895BZu68Z5mQwj9

09/14/2023

Simon Saradzhyan reports that over the last twenty years, Russians increasingly came to view Russia and China as “great,” whiles their opinions of Western countries diminished.

In the Thick of It A blog on the U.S.-Russia relationship Levada: Majority of Russians View Their Country, China as ‘Great,’ But Not US, Its Allies September 13, 2023 Simon Saradzhyan The Levada Center has just released the latest installment in its series of polls on which countries Russians co...

09/13/2023

Peter Rutland recalls his experience being arrested and interrogated by the FSB in 2002 to conclude that we may never know whether Evan Gershkovich was arrested just for his reporting or based on fabricated evidence of espionage.

(via Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia at NYU)

Gershkovich’s arrest is just one more piece of evidence that Russia’s security services are out of control, violating norms of civilized behavior, and so desperate in their efforts to prove Russia is still a "great power" that they need to arrest innocent Americans to demonstrate the might of th...

09/13/2023

Putin remains resolute in denying Ukrainian grain access to global markets, but the move is undercutting Russian popularity in the Global South and proving difficult to enforce in the Black Sea, Pavel Baev writes for Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)

https://blogs.prio.org/2023/09/russia-remains-stubborn-on-non-renewal-of-ukraine-grain-deal/

Baev continues in a second Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) blog, writing that the recent G20 summit in New Delhi proceeded without any obvious loss incurred by Russia's absence, demonstrating Russia's increasing irrelevance in global agenda setting.

https://blogs.prio.org/2023/09/russias-diminished-global-status-exposed-in-india/

It has been almost two months since Russia terminated the United Nations–approved deal ensuring the safe export of Ukrainian wheat and corn from its Black Sea ports. And following his most recent meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on September 4 in Sochi, Russian President Vladmir...

09/12/2023

Listen to Erica Marat discussing the Kyrgyz government's recent and growing crackdowns on dissent on the Majlis Podcast (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty) in conversation with Syinat Sultanalieva and hosted by Bruce Pannier.

Since October 2022, when more than two dozen opposition politicians, activists, and journalists were detained, the Kyrgyz government has been going after perceived opponents and critics.

09/12/2023

Tetyana Malyarenko and Stefan Wolff write that Russia and Ukraine are "settling into a normality of occupation," adjusting state institutions like elections and pension payments to account for the unique and difficult situation in illegally annexed regions

Elections to install pro-Moscow puppets in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine should not be taken seriously. Here’s why.