19/06/2026
El Niño has been declared. What could it mean for your business?
Read the latest update 👇
El Niño is here but what it could mean for the seasons ahead 🤔
Yesterday the Bureau of Meteorology confirmed that an El Niño event is now underway, with flow-on impacts likely for winter and spring conditions.
🌦️ What to watch:
🔸Increased chance of drier than average conditions across eastern and southern Australia
🔸Warmer than average temperatures in many regions
🔸Increased risk of warmer conditions, fire weather and variability
The current outlook for July to September is:
🔸Rainfall likely to be below average in parts of eastern Australia
⚠️ Remember: below average rainfall doesn’t mean no rain. It just means less than usual.
🔸Temperatures likely to be above average.
Important: El Niño doesn't drive the climate or the season alone. Conditions will also be shaped by other climate factors like the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), sea surface temperatures and broader climate trends. All of these can amplify or ease El Niño’s influence on spring and summer variability.
FACT: no 2 ENSO events are ever the same. Rainfall and temperature impacts can vary from one El Niño event to another. For example, winter to spring rainfall in 2002 was very different from 2015, as per the image sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
🐄 What does this mean for livestock production across northern Australia? Now’s the time to:
✅ Review water and feed budgets
✅ Plan for pasture and stocking pressure
✅ Keep track of temperature and evaporative stress for increased fire risks
✅ Stay updated with long-range forecasts
📈 Early signs suggest this could be a strong ENSO event, potentially lasting into early 2027. But outcomes can still shift depending on how other climate drivers evolve.
Our NACP team will continue sharing practical updates to support on-farm decisions, so stay tuned.