25/01/2026
Leave early
🏃💨 Did You Know ... The Physics of Velocity: Why YOU Cannot Outrun the Monster? 🏃💨
We’ve talked about the Column of Kaos, the physics of Radiant Heat, Crown Fires, Wind Change, the science behind FDRs, the gruesome reality of ways you'll likely die and lots more. We have laid the cards on the table as honestly as we can.
But there is another factor that catches people out every single time there is a large fire in bad conditions. It is the one thing you cannot outdrive, outplan, or negotiate with once it is on your doorstep: Velocity.
When we say a fire is "fast-moving," people imagine a brisk jog. Wrong. The reality is a wall of flame closing the gap faster than you can think, panic, or find your car keys.
In District 12 and across Victoria, we see fires move so fast that the time between "I think I see smoke" and "My house is on fire" can be measured in minutes. History tragically, time and time again, proves this. If you are waiting for a firetruck, a warning message (see our "The Deadly Delay" post for more on this), or a police officer to knock on your door, you have likely already run out of time. On extreme or catastrophic days, waiting and seeing can be deadly.
📉 A TALE OF TWO FIRES: THE DIFFERENCE IN GEARS
To understand speed, look at the two different beasts we faced earlier last year: The Little Desert and the Grampians.
1. The Sprinter (Grass & Scrub) In the Little Desert, the fire started in "Top Gear." There was no warm-up. Because the fuel is light (scrub and heath), it ignites and sprints across the landscape instantly. With the wind behind it, it can move at terrifying speeds.
THE SLAP-IN-THE-FACE FACT: The Little Desert fire exploded to tens of thousands of hectares in a single day. It burned over 95,000 hectares in total, doing the vast majority of that damage in the first massive run. To put that speed in perspective: The Grampians campaign fire took around 4 weeks to burn ~76,000 hectares. The Little Desert fire eclipsed that size in days.
▫️ On an Extreme or Catastrophic day, a grass/scrub fire is a flat-out sprint from second one.
▫️ It can consume an area the size of Melbourne in a single afternoon. It tears across kilometres of country while we are still putting our boots on.
▫️ It can outrun fire trucks across open ground before we can even unfold a map.
2. The Heavyweight (The Forest) Forest fires are often the "Sleepy Giants." You might watch one for days, thinking it’s slow and manageable. Do not be fooled.
▫️ The moment we have a bad weather day, the wind changes or humidity drops, the Giant can wake up. It can hit its "Power Band" and the monster is awakened.
We saw this in District 12 on Black Saturday. Whether it is a slow-moving fire waking up or a new ignition on a catastrophic day, the result is the same. At that point, the speed doesn't just increase—it defies logic. The fire goes vertical, becoming a Crown Fire (as we explained in our previous post), racing through the treetops at speeds that make surface firefighting impossible. It then builds into the Column of Kaos, throwing embers up to 30km away, starting new fires and trapping people.
This is when fire "leaps from mountain top to mountain top." The fire teleports across the landscape.
⚠️ HISTORY WARNS US. WE MUST LISTEN.
The 2024 Pomonal fires proved this again. On a Catastrophic day, the fire didn't give people hours to pack. It transitioned from "smoke in the trees" to "homes burning" in the blink of an eye. 45 homes lost. A community devastated. It wasn't just a fire; it was an unstoppable force of nature, a detonation of energy across the landscape that no amount of water could stop. It was a high-velocity firestorm.
🏎️ SPEED KILLS: THE HISTORICAL RECEIPTS
You think you can drive away? Physics and history disagree.
▫️ Lara 1969 (The Highway Trap): A grassfire moved so fast across the paddocks it trapped motorists on the Princes Highway. 17 people died in their cars or on the asphalt. They weren't in the deep bush; they were on a freeway and couldn't outpace the flames.
▫️ Black Friday 1939: The Royal Commission notably recorded that on this day, fires moved with such intensity they were jumping entire mountain ranges in minutes. 71 lives were lost.
▫️ Ash Wednesday 1983: In mere moments, a wind change turned a long flank into a massive 40km wide front, sweeping across the landscape faster than cars could navigate the smoke-blinded roads. 75 people died across Victoria and South Australia.
▫️ Black Saturday 2009: These weren't just fires; they were atmospheric events. In the forest, the fire was covering the length of a football field every few seconds. 173 people sadly lost their lives, 160 of those lives were lost in what is now CFA District 12's response area.
🤝 THE HARSH TRUTH
If you live near open paddocks, scrub, or forest, you are essentially living next to a high-speed fuse. The "Wait and See" approach is a trap; a fire 5km away gives you minutes, not hours, before your escape is cut off. Panic sets in. Roads become death traps—blocked by fallen trees and powerlines, blinded by smoke, and jammed with accidents, trapping you in total darkness while the world melts around you.
And remember: on these history-defining days, crews are forced into "Defensive Mode." As we explained in our "We will never have enough trucks" post, don't expect a firetruck on your doorstep. If you are in the path of the monster, it is very likely that no one is coming to save you.
You will likely die.
🛑 YOUR MOVE
This is why the Fire Danger Rating, planning and Leaving Early matters. As we again explained in our other post, when the FDR arrow hits Extreme or Catastrophic, it’s not just telling you it's a hot day—it’s telling you that if a fire starts, the conditions, fire behaviour and the Rate of Spread will be lethal. Fires once they take hold are likely unstoppable.
Do not measure your safety in kilometres. Measure it in minutes.
Check the FDR. Trust the rating. If it says Extreme or Catastrophic, do not wait for the wind to pick up or the smoke to appear. Don't gamble with your life.
Leave Early.
And don't die. Please?
