10/06/2026
๐ฃ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ ๐๐ก๐ ๐ฅ๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ช โ ๐จ๐ฅ๐๐๐ก๐ง!
๐ช๐ต๐ ๐ก๐ผ๐ผ๐๐ฎ ๐๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ถ๐น ๐บ๐๐๐ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ถ๐๐ ๐๐น๐ถ๐บ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฑ๐ฎ๐ฝ๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ด๐ถ๐ฒ๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ ๐ข๐ณ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐๐ฃ๐๐ ๐ฆ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ผ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐
๐ค๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ต๐ณ๐ช๐ฃ๐ถ๐ต๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ฃ๐บ ๐๐ช๐ค๐ฌ ๐๐ญ๐ถ๐ด๐ป๐ฌ๐ฐ
A 19 May 2026 letter from Noosa Council to a local community association makes no mention of the recent Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) paper โ the International Panel of Climate Changeโs (IPCC's) official update that retired the extreme RCP8.5 scenario as no longer a plausible reference pathway. That paper was published earlier the same month.
This is not an accusation of bad faith. But it is a question that needs answering: has Council considered what the new IPCC scenarios mean for Noosa?
I have spent the past several weeks reviewing Council's decade-long climate adaptation journey โ from the 2016 QCoast2100 application through to the 2025-26 Budget. I have reviewed the IPCC's own literature, including the May 2026 ScenarioMIP paper.
The conclusion is unavoidable. Noosa Council built an extensive planning and infrastructure framework on a scenario the IPCC no longer considers plausible. Ratepayer money should not be committed to projects designed for scenarios the IPCC has moved beyond.
This post summarises the key findings of my white paper โPause and Reviewโ. The full document is available via this link.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/9ni603qnme9j9putoouv4/PAUSE-AND-REVIEW-Final.docx?rlkey=r7r0qehso3jd74gxyy25jsinw&st=1prr260x&dl=0
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ฑ
In May 2026, the IPCC's ScenarioMIP committee published its new framework for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7). The committee stated that RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 has "become implausible" based on:
Falling renewable energy costs
Expansion of global climate policy
Recent emissions and energy transition trends
The new "HIGH" scenario is materially lower:
Metric Old (RCP8.5) New (CMIP7 โHIGHโ)
Emissions by 2100 ~128 Gt COโ/yr ~71 Gt COโ/yr
Central warming by 2100 ~3.7โ4.8ยฐC ~3.0โ3.2ยฐC
High-end sea level assumptions Up to ~1.6m ~1.0m
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ป๐ผ๐ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ฑ
The 0.8m central sea level rise (SLR) figure used by Noosa Council remains within IPCC ranges. That is not the issue.
The critical change is in the high-end assumptions โ the figures used to design major infrastructure and justify restrictive planning controls. Those assumptions now warrant reassessment.
๐๐ก๐๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ข๐ฅ ๐๐ฎ๐ข๐ฅ๐ญ ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐๐.๐
Between 2017 and 2021, Council and its consultants built an extensive framework on RCP8.5 and the 0.8m SLR figure, including:
Coastal Hazard Mapping Refinement (2018): Erosion distances, storm tide levels, permanent inundation mapping for 2040, 2070, 2100
Asset Register (2020): Over 11,000 assets identified within hazard areas
Risk Assessment (2020): Assets classified at "High" or "Very High" risk
Cost-Benefit Analysis โ Eastern Beaches (2020): $239 million net present value for dune augmentation
Cost-Benefit Analysis โ Noosaville (2020): $21.5 million net present value for levees
Coastal Hazards Adaptation Plan (2021)
Climate Change Response Plan (2021): RCP8.5 adopted as Council's minimum planning assumption
While the State required RCP8.5 for the CHAP, Council went significantly further, voluntarily adopting it as the "minimum" scenario for all decisions.
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๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ป๐ฒ๐ด๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐๐ ๐ผ๐ป ๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐บ๐๐ป๐ถ๐๐
Council's reliance on RCP8.5 has had real, negative consequences for Noosa residents:
Iอnอsอuอrอaอnอcอeอ: Hazard mapping derived from RCP8.5 has been used by insurers to price risk. Local reporting (Noosa Today, 2025) states: "Household insurance is almost unavailable or completely unaffordable to many as a direct result of Council's disaster mapping."
Pอrอoอpอeอrอtอyอ อvอaอlอuอeอsอ: Coastal hazard overlays have added caveats to titles, triggered disclosure obligations, and reduced property values โ particularly for beachfront and waterfront homes.
Rอeอsอtอrอiอcอtอiอvอeอ อlอaอnอdอ อuอsอeอ อpอlอaอnอnอiอnอgอ: The Noosa Plan 2020 imposes minimum floor levels, restricts development, and requires costly engineering assessments based on RCP8.5 assumptions.
Pอoอtอeอnอtอiอaอlอ อoอvอeอrอ-อeอnอgอiอnอeอeอrอiอnอgอ: Council's 2025-26 Budget includes millions in coastal infrastructure. Examples include:
Sunshine Beach slope stabilisation $3,166,981
Noosa Main Beach Levy (annual) $716,000
Stormwater drainage program $4,134,077
Noosaville Foreshore Masterplan $10+ million (total)
As high-end sea level assumptions have been reduced by IPCC from 1.6m to 1.01m, these projects may be over-engineered. Ratepayers may be bearing unnecessary costs.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ด๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ถ๐น'๐ ๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ต
My review identified several governance gaps:
No review mechanism for sea level projections. The Eastern Beaches Foreshore Reserves Management Plan (EBFRMP) requires vegetation reviews every 2 years and Bushlands Operations Assessment (BOA) mapping every 5 years. But nowhere does it require reviewing the underlying sea level assumptions.
No sensitivity testing for lower emissions scenarios. The cost-benefit analyses tested discount rates and tourist visitation โ but never tested what happens if emissions follow a lower pathway. The $239m and $21.5m Net Present Values (NPVs) cannot be relied upon.
No announced review following AR6 or ScenarioMIP. Council's 2021 policy committed to reviewing its adaptation program within 12 months of new IPCC projections. Assessment Report (AR6) was finalised in 2021-2023. Council has not announced a review. The ScenarioMIP paper was published in May 2026. Council has not announced a review.
Council went beyond State requirements. The State required RCP8.5 for the CHAP. Council voluntarily adopted it as the "minimum" scenario for all decisions.
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ผ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ถ๐น๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฑ๐ผ๐ถ๐ป๐ด
Sunshine Coast Council Review announced post-ScenarioMIP
Gold Coast City Council Adopted adaptive pathways. Well-positioned for update
Townsville City Council Review of CHAP pending
Noosa Council No review announced
Noosa's explicit mandating of RCP8.5 as the "minimum" scenario goes well beyond what other councils required. This makes Noosa more exposed than councils that maintained greater flexibility.
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ก๐ผ๐ผ๐๐ฎ ๐๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ถ๐น ๐ผ๐๐ด๐ต๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ฑ๐ผ
Iอmอmอeอdอiอaอtอeอ (next 30 days):
Acknowledge the ScenarioMIP paper and its implications for Noosa's planning framework.
Pause any final approvals for new coastal adaptation capital works projects pending review. Ratepayer money should not be committed to projects designed for scenarios the IPCC no longer considers plausible.
Notify insurers that the high-end sea level assumptions used in Council's hazard mapping may warrant reassessment.
Mฬฒiฬฒdฬฒ ฬฒtฬฒeฬฒrฬฒmฬฒ:
Commission a comprehensive review of all climate adaptation strategies โ CHAP, EBFRMP, Noosa Plan 2020 coastal hazard overlays, Noosaville Foreshore Masterplan, and Living Foreshores projects.
Recalculate cost-benefit analyses for major projects using the new CMIP7 framework.
Amend the EBFRMP to require that sea level projections be reviewed every 5 years, alongside existing vegetation and BOA reviews.
Lอoอnอgอeอrอ อtอeอrอmอ:
Formally request the State Government update QCoast2100 to align with CMIP7.
Review the Noosa Main Beach Levy and evaluate whether sand replenishment requirements may warrant adjustment.
Update Council's Climate Change Response Plan to replace RCP8.5 with the new CMIP7 framework.
Develop a community communication strategy explaining what these changes mean for insurance, property values, and development approvals.
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐ป๐ผ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ๐๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฑ
To be clear, this is not arguing against climate change adaptation.
Adaptation remains necessary. Sea levels will continue to rise. The new CMIP7 "HIGH" scenario (~3.0ยฐC warming, ~1.01m high-end) is still serious.
What we are asking is that Councilโs planning be based on the most current and credible scientific assumptions available โ not on scenarios the IPCC itself has indicated are no longer considered plausible.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ผ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ถ๐น
Council's own Adaptation Principle #9 requires them to consider the financial burden on the community. Principle #13 requires flexibility and responsiveness to new information. The CMIP7 framework provides that new information.
The question is not whether Council can act โ it is whether they will.
Oอpอtอiอoอnอ อAอ: Continue with existing plans without reassessment. Risk continued unnecessary financial burden on ratepayers, potential legal challenge, and reputational damage.
Oอpอtอiอoอnอ อBอ: Undertake a structured reassessment. Evaluate whether opportunities exist to reduce unnecessary costs, planning burdens, and insurance impacts while maintaining prudent climate resilience.
๐ฃ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐. ๐ฅ๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ช. ๐ฅ๐๐ฆ๐๐ง.
Noosa Council, the science has been updated. Will you be?
๐ท๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ข๐๐: ๐โ๐ ๐๐ข๐กโ๐๐ โ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ข๐ก ๐ถ๐๐ข๐๐๐๐'๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ก๐๐ โ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ . ๐โ๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ก ๐๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ข๐๐๐๐๐ฆ ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐ก๐๐ง๐๐'๐ ๐๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ค ๐๐ ๐๐ข๐๐๐๐๐๐ฆ ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ข๐๐๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ฃ๐๐๐๐๐ฆ, ๐๐๐ก ๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ก ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐ก. ๐โ๐ ๐๐ข๐กโ๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ก ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐ ๐ก, ๐๐๐๐ ๐ก๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐, ๐๐ ๐๐๐ค๐ฆ๐๐.
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