22/03/2026
First thoughts post the SA election…up front I want to make clear this observation is about outcomes not cause.
The Federal Election in 2025 and yesterday’s South Australian Election has made clear that a vote for a Teal or a vote for One Nation leads to more entrenched Labor Governments.
Citizens are voting for disruption but delivering super majorities in Labor’s favour.
This means less of the policies they support or the change they seek will be implemented. Think Allegra Spender’s income tax reductions or One Nation’s immigration agenda. With super majorities Labor has no parliamentary reason to respond to these agendas.
Whatever the motives for voting the way they do, voters who are seeking something different from right of centre politics in Australia are making it much easy for the left of centre to win elections.
From a public policy perspective, with the right of centre so fragmented, industry groups and peak bodies will have to play an increasingly important role in holding governments accountable for policy outcomes and developing alternatives when governments lack enthusiasm for reform.
In this environment and until the right of centre finds a political vehicle capable of unifying its vote, any Labor leader who resists the temptation to follow extremes and anchors themselves to the political centre will govern for a long time.
Which is exactly the opposite to the intention of Teal and One Nation voters.
Some interesting times ahead….
Similar analysis by Rob Harris from the The Age
Pauline Hanson is right that the electorate has had a “gutful,” but the arithmetic of the South Australian result proves that a fractured right is a gift for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.