26/08/2026
You can't commit to spending vast quantities of public money and keeping taxes and borrowing down.
Libertarians have been speaking about a reckoning like this for years now, the Covid spending was astronomical and borrowing has essentially replaced taxation as a method of paying for any new public expenditure.
The gilt yield on UK bonds is 1% higher than February of this year, not much if you're borrowing 2k to buy a used car, quite a lot if you're borrowing billions to buy dying factories or throw away on HS2.
The repayments are almost 12% of the national budget. 12p in every pound you fork over to the government is paying back loans: No roads, no schools, no hospitals, just fueling their debt habit.
Burnham can't back down from spending either, his party's Manifesto is based on "redistribution" so he has to keep taking and borrowing to give and spend. Whether or not he would be too upset if the financial system collapsed is another question, his socialist credentials make me think he wouldn't care too much.
He has already hit the Laffer curve, Scotland lost money introducing a wealth tax, its too expensive to hire and the walls are closing in. But my prediction is that he will bull on with his Manchestenomics: A revenge fantasy cooked up by unions in the 80s to get back at Thatcher, the 80s are gone and she is dead, the people who created the plan are dead, Burnham is essentially pouring libations for his socialist ancestors to honor them at the temple.
He will squeeze the middle class out, wealth tax the rich to leave and expand the benefits class of people who are never going to work in generational cycle of poverty and state assisted living.
There is probably enough wealth still around for him to keep doing this for a while, but when the malinvestments fail and the wealth retreats offshore, the middle class emigrate and people suddenly start becoming violent, racist and disillusioned... he won't see the light, he'll send in the army if he needs too.
The warning signs are bright and clear, every other major party is planning on massive cuts to social welfare. Labour's cosy majority means these can be ignored for now. But comrade Burnham is going down a terrible road filled with the spirits of countries that have gone before us, wailing "Beware, go back, beware..."https://www.cityam.com/andy-burnham-hints-at-tax-rises-in-autumn-budget/?fbclid=IwdGRjcAT7VmdjbGNrBPtWXnBkb2YFZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQMMzUwNjg1NTMxNzI4AAEekfVHQGhSqM1501bTbeNp9DwTKqKgGN-n6vx0h9peXirHj8aTSbRYVWhnyFA_aem_O-WPNIjsjKqsD3SPXGE77Q
