30/05/2026
A new Greenpeace study, “Europe Alone at Home?”, takes a good hard look at one of the most little-questioned claims doing the rounds. The story goes: Europe, especially without the Americans holding its hand, is militarily surpassed by Russia; so we need a grand, historic splurge on armaments. The study shows that both claims are untrue.
Yet for all its valuable number-crunching, the Greenpeace document is itself part of a trend. It treats the EU project—specifically in its headlong rush toward militarisation—as eminently open to debate, but ultimately as reformable. In doing so, it accepts the very terms of engagement that have led us to the brink of a new arms race. The report’s focus on "inefficiencies" in European defence spending is, in fact, not too different from what European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen herself argues. The difference is one of tone, not of first principles.
The problem is that the Greenpeace study never questions the military logic itself. It simply takes for granted that a conventional war between the great power blocs is a feasible notion. It assumes that “deterrence” is a valid goal, and that the only error is doing it badly.
Consider the theory of “Schrödinger’s Russians”. On the one hand, the Russian army and its economy are so weak that even little Ukraine – with a leg up from NATO – should be able to send them packing. On the other hand, Russia is so powerful that in a few months or years it’ll be sweeping into EU/NATO territory, and soon enough their tanks will be rolling across Europe to threaten our shores.
So which is it? Greenpeace rightly points out the contradiction. But then it makes a fatal concession: it agrees to debate the scale of the response rather than the sanity of the premise. By arguing for a more efficient, less wasteful military build-up, the organisation implicitly validates the idea that a build-up is necessary in the first place.
Greenpeace provides the damning statistics. Today, NATO is head and shoulders above Russia in every key military category – even without the Americans, whose reliability has been questioned as a justification for a European armaments drive. In 2025, European NATO states plus Canada spent roughly 626 billion on armaments.
Russia spent190 billion. Even adjusting for purchasing power, Russia doesn’t come close.
Once you take the actual state of play into account, you cannot talk about closing a gap any more. EU militarisation is about pushing an already massive advantage over Russia even further. Greenpeace is rightly critical of “deterrence” rhetoric on these grounds.
But then the study reveals its fatal flaw. While lambasting EU/NATO countries for shoving a percentage of GDP into arms spending, “Europe Alone at Home” does not criticise rearmament as such. Instead, it criticises the inefficiency and lack of planning behind it. The report identifies the sheer waste of money from European NATO countries developing nineteen different main battle tank systems or twenty-eight different artillery systems. For comparison, the Americans have one battle tank system and two artillery systems.
This is where Greenpeace sounds indistinguishable from a McKinsey consultant—or indeed from von der Leyen, who has repeatedly called for “more joint procurement” and “fewer duplications” in European defence. The subtext is clear: if only we did rearmament properly, it would be acceptable. This is a trend that sees the entire EU project—even its most dangerous turn toward militarisation—as open to debate only on terms of technical efficiency, not moral or strategic sanity.
If you accept the deterrence logic, you’ll agree with Greenpeace. To achieve “military deterrence”, set a clear goal and work towards it as efficiently as possible. Be cost conscious. But that’s not even the European politicians’ approach. They see a rearmament drive as a stimulus for a moribund economy. Every euro senselessly squandered on arms is a euro taken from the real economy.
Yet Greenpeace refuses to take the final step. Speaking of the military balance of power between the transatlantic bloc and Russia implies that a direct war between the two blocs could somehow be fought below the nuclear threshold. That is a mad delusion. In the age of the atomic bomb, the greater enemy isn’t the supposed opponent—it’s war itself.
The Greenpeace study is laudable for puncturing the myth of Russian conventional superiority. But it is deeply disappointing for what it fails to do. By framing the debate around “waste” and “efficiency,” it joins a dangerous trend that treats the EU’s militarisation as a technical problem to be reformed rather than a catastrophic logic to be rejected. We shouldn’t be debating the merits of arms spending at all. We should be questioning the military logic in its entirety. But we are light years away from that—so far that even this genuinely laudable Greenpeace study hasn’t taken it on as its central theme.