26/05/2026
WHAT THE BYE ELECTIONS SHOWED
(Story linked in comments)
Darryl Horan looks at the political trends in evidence from the two recent bye elections.
The results of the recent by-elections highlight two clear trends developing in Irish politics. The first is a deepening polarisation, demonstrated by the simultaneous growth of the soft left and the far right. Both constituencies saw significant shifts away from the status quo, culminating in the soft left Social Democrats taking the seat in Dublin Central and the populist right Independent Ireland coming dangerously close to victory in Galway West.
The second trend is the definitive hollowing out of the political centre. The combined Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael vote was slashed in both areas, falling from 24% to 15% in Dublin Central, and from 35% to under 30% in Galway West, even though Fine Gael scraped a win in the latter.
This bleeding vote share continues the historic decline of the two establishment parties. As their traditional base shrinks, they are left increasingly reliant on each other and minor coalition partners just to maintain their grip on power.
Centre Decay
The governing parties will be anxious walking away from these by-elections. Even with Fine Gael capturing Catherine Connolly’s former seat in Galway West, the trend for the government is downward across the board. Fianna Fáil, in particular, has seen its vote decimated in both constituencies. If these results were replicated in a general election, there would likely be no seat left for Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael in Dublin Central — a constituency where just 20 years ago, over 55% of the electorate voted for them.
Their deep unpopularity means that just over a third of voters, when polled, would vote to return this government. The electoral coalition that has guaranteed their grip on power for over a century is unravelling from both the left and the right, guaranteeing that come the 2029 general election, they will need to seek even more partners just to maintain a majority.
All of this is happening before we see the real ramifications of the looming energy crisis. This incoming shock will drive up the prices of virtually all essentials, deepening a cost-of-living crisis that most working families have not yet recovered from post-COVID. It will also place extraordinary financial pressure on the state to intervene and alleviate the suffering of ordinary people, pressure that this current government seems ill-equipped to handle.
Soft Left
One of the main takeaways from the weekend’s results is the sharp rise in support for the soft left. Dublin Central will now return three TDs from soft-left parties, a stark contrast to just over a decade ago when the constituency was left with none following Labour’s 2016 wipeout. In Galway West, the primary beneficiary of Catherine Connolly’s vacated vote has been Labour’s Helen Ogbu, who saw her vote share surge from 3.3% just a year and a half ago to 11.4%. Similarly, Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich nearly doubled the Social Democrats’ 2024 result, rising to 7%.
This electoral return of the soft left reflects a growing dissatisfaction that extends beyond the government to include Sinn Féin. The party has struggled to sustain the meteoric momentum it experienced in the aftermath of the 2020 election. Sinn Féin’s steady march rightward towards the political centre is now in direct conflict with the deepening polarisation occurring across working-class communities and society at large.
Racism was on the ballot
Bertie Ahern made his supposed triumphant return to electoral politics by backing John Stephens for Fianna Fáil in Dublin Central, stepping in after his long-time local rival, Mary Fitzpatrick, pulled back. What Ahern likely didn’t anticipate was that his main contribution to the campaign would be a leaked recording in which he stated that people from Africa and the Congo shouldn’t be offered refugee status, while adding that he was ‘worrying [about] the next generation of Muslims, that’s when I think the problem will be’.
These comments reflect not just the rise of racist rhetoric, but a deliberate strategy by the establishment to scapegoat those at the bottom of society for problems created at the top. As Paul Murphy rightly pointed out, ‘People from the Congo did not take corrupt payments from developers to blow up the property bubble… Muslim children did not crash the economy, causing years of misery and austerity for ordinary people. Unlike Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, they never rolled out the red carpet for developers and vulture funds.’ The blame for the housing and social crises we face lies squarely with the political class that engineered them. Few bear more responsibility in this regard than Bertie Ahern.
The significant votes for Noel Thomas and Malachy Steenson, alongside the grim commentary from Gerry Hutch, further illustrate the normalisation of far-right ideas. Noel Thomas, who in the wake of an arson attack on an IPAS centre, decided to double down on his anti-migrant rhetoric, claimed that “the inn is full”. Steenson remains a leading far-right activist and a key organiser for their movement. When Gerry Hutch publicly called for internment camps for ‘illegal migrants’ and refugees, Mary Lou McDonald’s response was a dismal, ‘We can’t comment on other people’s comments.’ It is no wonder Sinn Féin struggled at the polls when they chose to fudge their opposition to racism so weakly.
Crucially, this polarisation is double-sided. People Before Profit, the Social Democrats, and the Greens all ran on unapologetically anti-racist platforms and saw significant growth across Dublin Central. Meanwhile in Galway West, Labour’s Helen Ogbu, a former refugee herself, came incredibly close to election and was actively championed as a clear, unifying alternative to hate and division.
Bad day for Sinn Féin
For Sinn Féin, these results are objectively poor and signal the real possibility of the party being displaced as the primary opposition to the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael establishment. Their vote fell in both constituencies, collapsing disastrously by half in Galway West. Their continued march rightward has utterly failed to win back the voters who abandoned them for the far right, while simultaneously damaging their standing as a genuinely progressive alternative for the working class.
This conservative drift was starkly reflected in their abstention on the Social Democrats’ recent reproductive healthcare bill. The demands of that bill were less far reaching than Bríd Smith’s abortion rights bill a year prior, which Sinn Féin had comfortably supported. Furthermore, shortly before the Dublin Central polling day, the party distributed leaflets claiming they would ‘manage migration’ by blocking refugee accommodation in working-class areas, slashing support for Ukrainian refugees, and pushing for ‘faster and more efficient deportations.’ These are demands that could easily have been lifted from the manifestos of right-wing parties.
This shift exposes the internal fractures within Sinn Féin, where the leadership appears terrified of taking positions on social questions that might put them out of step with their most conservative elements. This ideological paralysis is now raising serious questions about the future direction of the party and whether Mary Lou McDonald’s leadership can realistically survive. One thing is certain: the international trajectory of left-wing parties adopting right-wing positions to chase the centre ground—as seen with disastrous results in Britain and Denmark—always proves fatal, both morally and electorally.
Prospects for the Socialist Left
People Before Profit can come out of these by-elections incredibly proud of its result in Dublin Central. From the very beginning of the campaign, there were concerted attempts to exclude and marginalise us. When we were initially blocked from the RTÉ debates, it took a rapid, fighting grassroots campaign—which collected over 1,200 signatures—to force our way onto the airwaves.
Following that, an Irish Times poll understated our actual support by more than half, feeding into attempts by other parties to squeeze our vote across the constituency. Despite these hurdles, a vibrant campaign powered by hundreds of activists saw our vote share increase by more than 50%, transforming Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin into a household name as a tireless activist and fighter for Dublin Central. This campaign proves that even amidst broader electoral shifts, People Before Profit can firmly establish itself and grow.
From these results, the socialist left can draw a vital set of lessons:
First, in a context where our forces are smaller than the establishment machines around us, by-elections offer a unique opportunity to engage in national debates in a highly focused manner, allowing us to pool our resources and make powerful, disruptive interventions.
Second, the socialist left can absolutely be the beneficiary of societal polarisation, but only when it offers absolute ideological clarity. People Before Profit must continue to be the most energetic proponents of genuine and principled left unity, and a left government, while consistently exposing the danger of any coalition with the right.
The future remains unwritten. Our ability to aggressively seize opportunities as they present themselves will ultimately define the growth and success of the socialist left in the period ahead.
by-electionDublin CentralPeople Before Profit
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Darryl Horan
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