12/05/2026
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Weekly Regional Weather Outlook
Tuesday, May 12, 2026,
Valid at 9:30 AM ChST
REGIONAL OVERVIEW:
A quieter weather pattern is in place across the Marianas with spotty showers and a couple of thunderstorms today. A drier trade wind pattern will set up mid to late week but trades increase again this weekend. Expect combined seas of 3 to 6 feet the next few days, building to between 5 and 7 feet this weekend. There will be a moderate risk of rip currents along north and east facing reefs and beaches of the Marianas.
A tropical disturbance, Invest 96W, will bring showers and thunderstorms to Yap State, and possibly Palau, the next couple of days. Expect a mix of showers and sun through the weekend at both locations as moderate trades prevail late this week into next week.
Fair weather is found across Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae, with showers across the RMI, associated with a surface trough. An ITCZ-like pattern will shift northward this weekend but weak surface troughs will bring brief periods of showers to the region through early next week.
TC POTENTIAL/HAZARDS:
We are watching a tropical disturbance near Yap, Invest 96W. A week ago, 96W was formerly known as 94W, near Kosrae. That Invest was closed days later, but reopened again, becoming 95W near Chuuk, for additional observation. 95W was closed after a couple of days, but was reopened this morning, now as Invest 96W for closer observation. This disturbance, a weak circulation, has maintained a core of showers and thunderstorms as it tracks slowly westward. However, it is rated as “sub low” for development, meaning that development is not expected in the coming days.
Farther west, the remnants of Tropical Depression Hagupit sit just outside of the NWS Guam Area of Responsibility (west of 130E).
Elsewhere across the region, there are no suspect areas for tropical cyclone development. However, the CPC’s 2/3 week Global Tropics Hazards Outlook indicates the heightened potential for tropical cyclone activity in the region.
DROUGHT OUTLOOK:
Abnormally dry (D0) conditions persist across Palau and western Yap State in the US Drought Monitor’s Weekly Drought Assessment from 7 May. Tropical Storm Hagupit brought much-needed rainfall last week to the region. A showery pattern in the coming weeks will provide additional relief. Impact reports and feedback are much appreciated from islands and atolls across the region, particularly if water shortages are still ongoing.
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
NWS Guam:
weather.gov/gum
Climate Prediction Center
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html