Hurricane Watch

30/05/2025

THE NEW YORK TIMES
SUNDAY, MAY 30, 2025

FORTIFYING THE FRONTLINES: ESSENTIAL DEFENSES FOR HOMES AND BUSINESSES AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE SEASON
EXPERTS UNDERSCORE CRITICAL HOME PREPAREDNESS, FROM SECURING LANDSCAPING TO INSTALLING ROBUST, CERTIFIED BARRIERS AGAINST WIND AND WATER DAMAGE
PLAYA DEL CARMEN, Q.ROO – As coastal communities, particularly those in the Mexican Caribbean, brace for what is projected to be an active 2025 hurricane season, the imperative for proactive home and property protection has never been clearer. Hurricane-force winds are not just a force of nature; they can transform everyday landscaping materials into dangerous missiles, shattering windows and doors. Much of the ensuing property damage often occurs in the aftermath of the initial windstorm, as relentless rain infiltrates structures through newly created openings in roofs, windows, and doors.

Strategic Preparedness: A Phased Approach to Resilience
Preparing your home to withstand the onslaught of high winds and floodwaters is an essential investment in safety and security. While undoubtedly an expense, these measures can be implemented in stages, allowing property owners to build resilience systematically. For renters, open communication with landlords or property managers about shared protective steps is vital.

FEMA, a leading authority on disaster preparedness, places a strong emphasis on robust building codes, recognizing their fundamental role in enhancing public safety and property protection. Homeowners are encouraged to consult their local building codes, which can be found at resources like https://inspecttoprotect.org/.

Securing the Perimeter: Key Exterior Defenses
The first line of defense often begins with the immediate surroundings of a property:

Landscaping Audit: Replace loose gravel or rock landscaping materials with alternatives that are both lighter and fire-resistant. This minimizes the risk of them becoming airborne projectiles in high winds.
Tree and Shrub Maintenance: Proactively cut weak branches and prune trees that could pose a threat by falling onto your house. Regularly trimmed shrubbery can also reduce wind resistance and debris.
Fortifying Entry Points: Windows, Doors, and Openings
Windows and doors represent critical vulnerabilities during a hurricane and demand robust protection:

Window Reinforcement: Install storm shutters designed to withstand hurricane impacts. Alternatively, pre-cut plywood panels, designed to be securely nailed to window frames as a storm approaches, offer a viable temporary solution. (A survivor's firsthand account highlights the security offered by storm shutters at https://www.fema.gov/case-study/storm-shutters-create-feeling-security).
Exterior Door Integrity: Ensure all exterior doors are hurricane-proof, equipped with at least three sturdy hinges and a deadbolt lock that extends at least one inch into the doorframe.
Sliding Glass Doors: These are inherently more susceptible to wind damage. They should be constructed of tempered glass and, critically, must be covered with storm shutters or plywood when a hurricane approaches.
Garage Door Upgrades: Replace older garage doors and their tracks with models specifically approved for both wind pressure and impact protection. A breach in this large opening can compromise the entire structural integrity of a home, particularly its roof.
Seal All Openings: Meticulously seal outside wall openings such as vents, outdoor electrical outlets, garden hose bibs, and any points where cables or pipes pe*****te the wall. Utilize a high-quality, urethane-based caulk to prevent water infiltration.
Specialized Materials: The Gold Standard for Hurricane Resistance
Beyond general measures, selecting the right materials for maximum protection is paramount. Experience has shown that only specific, rigorously tested materials offer reliable defense against major hurricanes:

Hurricane-Rated Windows: True hurricane windows should boast a thickness GREATER THAN 30 MILLIMETERS, often incorporating a multi-layered, laminated construction. These require REINFORCED FRAMING capable of supporting their substantial weight and withstanding extreme pressures.
High-Density Polycarbonate: This material offers exceptional impact resistance and is a highly recommended alternative to traditional glass in critical areas.
Advanced Fabric Barriers: For robust external protection, consider specialized tarps constructed from polyester infused with aramid fibers (the core material of Kevlar) or ballistic nylon. These materials, akin to those utilized by the United States military for their unparalleled strength and tear resistance, provide a formidable, flexible barrier.
Mobile Homes and Marine Assets: Specific Considerations
Owners of mobile homes must understand the critical need to secure their units against high winds and, crucially, review their mobile home insurance policies. It is an unequivocal reminder that mobile homes are not safe in high winds, and occupants must move to a designated safer location before a storm's arrival, always following local community officials' advice. Further details are available at https://www.iii.org/article/mobile-home-insurance.

For those with boats on trailers, knowing how to properly anchor the trailer to the ground or a secure structure is essential. A thorough review of boat insurance policies is also advisable, with more information found at https://www.iii.org/article/boat-insurance-and-safety.

As the 2025 hurricane season progresses, vigilance and proactive preparation are the cornerstones of resilience for communities across the Mexican Caribbean.

https://www.fema.gov/fact-sheet/tips-prepare-your-home-hurricane-season

Hurricane force winds can turn landscaping materials into missiles that can break windows and doors. Much of the property damage associated with hurricanes occur after the windstorm, when rain enters structures through broken windows, doors, and openings in the roof.

30/05/2025

THE UNTOLD STORY OF OTIS: HOW FAULTY MATERIALS, NOT JUST FURY, DEVASTATED ACAPULCO
FORENSIC ANALYSIS REVEALS CRITICAL FLAWS IN "HURRICANE-PROOF" DEFENSES, POINTING TO SYSTEMIC VULNERABILITIES AND THE HIGH COST OF FALSE SECURITY
ACAPULCO, GRO. – The images of Hurricane Otis's wrath tearing through Acapulco remain seared into the global consciousness: a once-vibrant coastal gem reduced to a landscape of shattered glass and mangled steel. While Otis’s unprecedented rapid intensification to a Category 5 storm was undeniably ferocious, a forensic examination of the widespread destruction now points to a more unsettling truth: THE DEVASTATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY EXACERBATED BY THE FAILURE OF INADEQUATE AND UNCERTIFIED BUILDING MATERIALS, sold under the guise of "hurricane protection."

THE FATAL FLAWS EXPOSED: A COLLAPSE OF FALSE SECURITY
Preliminary assessments and engineering reports from the ground zero of Otis's impact paint a grim picture of systemic material failures. Many structures, particularly in hotels and residential towers, relied on what were marketed as "hurricane-resistant" windows. However, these often proved to be TRAGICALLY INSUFFICIENT. Eyewitness accounts and post-storm analyses indicate that glass panels with a mere 20 MILLIMETERS OF THICKNESS, far below the resilience required for such extreme winds, simply exploded under the immense pressure.

Compounding this, many properties had installed ALUMINUM SHEETS AS "CURTAINS" or utilized POLYPROPYLENE FABRICS for external protection. These choices, made perhaps for perceived cost savings or lack of awareness, proved to be catastrophic errors. Unlike robust, impact-rated solutions, these materials quickly failed, fragmenting into dangerous projectiles that perforated entire buildings, creating cascades of internal damage and exposing interiors to the full force of the hurricane. The stark reality is that these "solutions" did not offer protection; they offered a PERILOUS ILLUSION OF SAFETY.

THE SCIENCE OF TRUE PROTECTION: INVESTMENT IN RESILIENCE
Experts in hurricane engineering and resilient construction now advocate for a critical re-evaluation of building standards and material selection, particularly in hurricane-prone zones. The consensus is clear: true protection against Category 3+ hurricanes requires SUBSTANTIAL INVESTMENT in genuinely robust materials.

For windows, a viable and secure option involves MULTI-LAYERED GLASS GREATER THAN 30 MILLIMETERS IN THICKNESS, typically comprising 6 laminated layers. Such high-performance glass comes at an approximate cost of $1,000 USD PER SQUARE METER, in addition to the specialized, heavy-duty framing necessary to support its weight and withstand extreme wind loads.

An increasingly favored alternative for its strength-to-weight ratio is HIGH-RESISTANCE POLYCARBONATE. This material, significantly more impact-resistant than glass, can be installed at an approximate cost of $600 USD PER SQUARE METER, also requiring robust framing capable of supporting its substantial weight and absorbing impact.

For external, non-structural protection, a highly effective and more cost-efficient solution comes in the form of FABRIC TARPS MADE OF KEVLAR OR BALLISTIC NYLON. These materials offer exceptional tensile strength and resistance to tearing and puncturing from flying debris. With an average cost of $200 USD PER SQUARE METER, they offer the distinct advantage of NOT REQUIRING PERMANENT FRAMING OR CANCELERÍA, providing a flexible yet formidable barrier.

BEYOND MATERIALS: THE IMPERATIVE FOR STANDARDS AND EXPERT GUIDANCE
Acapulco's tragic lesson underscores a broader systemic issue: the critical need for STRICTER REGULATION, CERTIFICATION, AND ENFORCEMENT OF HURRICANE RESISTANCE STANDARDS. Property owners, developers, and local authorities must move away from unverified claims and prioritize materials that have undergone rigorous testing and validation against hurricane-force winds and impacts.

Consulting with CERTIFIED HURRICANE PROTECTION EXPERTS is no longer a luxury but a necessity. Their guidance is crucial in selecting and installing systems that truly offer resilience, safeguarding lives and assets in the face of increasingly intense climatic events. The cost of genuine protection, while significant, pales in comparison to the devastating financial and human toll exacted by a catastrophic failure.

Acapulco's recovery, though arduous, offers an opportunity for a paradigm shift in coastal construction and preparedness. The future of resilience hinges on learning from past failures and investing wisely in the face of an ever-changing climate.

30/05/2025

Tropical Storm Watch vs. Warning!

A Tropical Storm WATCH is when tropical storm conditions are POSSIBLE somewhere within the watch area. A Watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm WARNING is when tropical storm conditions are EXPECTED somewhere within the warning area. A Warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Know the difference and stay Weather-Ready!

Whenever a tropical cyclone (a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane) or a subtropical storm has formed in the Atlantic or eastern North Pacific, the NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues tropical cyclone advisory products at least every 6 hours at 5 am, 11 am, 5 pm, and 11 pm EDT....

30/05/2025

Prepare Before Hurricane Season

The best time to prepare for hurricanes is BEFORE hurricane season begins. Avoid having to rush through potentially life-saving preparations by waiting until it’s too late. Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period.

(Image credit: NOAA's National Weather Service)Download Image The Atlantic and central Pacific hurricane season (includes Hawaii) officially runs June 1 through November 30. The eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 to November 30. However, the best time to prepare is well before the off...

30/05/2025

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WEAKENS IN PACIFIC, BUT COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERNS SIGNAL POTENTIAL NEW SYSTEMS AND SHIFTING THREATS FOR MEXICO
SCIENTISTS MONITORING ATLANTIC AND SAHARA DUST AS CARIBBEAN FACES PROLONGED HEAT
PLAYA DEL CARMEN, Q.ROO – While attention has been focused on the Pacific, where Tropical Storm Alvin is now rapidly diminishing, a complex interplay of atmospheric forces across Mexico and the broader Atlantic basin is setting the stage for evolving weather dynamics. Forecasters are closely watching for new low-pressure areas and the influence of distant polar air masses, even as the Yucatán Peninsula, including Playa del Carmen, experiences exceptionally hot and hazy conditions.

Alvin's Decline: A Brief Pacific Disturbance
As of 06:00 AM Central Mexico time, Tropical Storm Alvin was located approximately 665 km south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur, and 445 km southwest of Playa Perula, Jalisco. With maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h and gusts up to 100 km/h, Alvin is projected to degrade into a low-pressure system by midday tomorrow, dissipating over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Despite its weakening, Alvin's detached cloud bands are interacting with a low-pressure trough, contributing to STRONG TO INTENSE RAINFALL across southern, western, central, and northern regions of Mexico. Alvin’s trajectory and evolution are notably influenced by two powerful polar air masses or high-pressure systems: one over the open Pacific waters off the coast of California, and another pushing an unnumbered, out-of-season cold front across the southern United States, extending its frontal system over Chihuahua and Coahuila.

Atlantic Vigilance: Monsoon Trough and Emerging Potential
Meanwhile, eyes are turning eastward. Tropical Wave No. 1 dissipated yesterday afternoon, absorbed by the monsoon trough. Its remnant effects are now contributing to the forecast for the PROBABLE APPEARANCE OF A LOW-PRESSURE AREA off the coasts of Guatemala or southern Chiapas and Oaxaca. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) currently assigns a 0% chance of this system evolving into a tropical depression or storm within two days, increasing to 20% within seven days. This system is moving west to west-northwest at 16 to 24 km/h, and its potential for development is significantly enhanced as it crosses the southern Gulf of Tehuantepec, where sea surface temperatures are a notable 30 to 31 degrees Celsius (86 to 88 degrees Fahrenheit).

Further east in the Caribbean, Tropical Wave No. 2 extends its axis from Puerto Rico to central Venezuela, moving westward at 28 to 37 km/h, currently without associated rainfall activity.

Yucatán Peninsula Endures Blistering Heat Amidst Saharan Dust Incursion
For residents of the Yucatán Peninsula, the immediate forecast points to a continuation of EXTREMELY HOT CONDITIONS. The arrival of SAHARA DUST is evident, manifesting as a whitish, diffuse sky, which, while contributing to the heat, also inhibits significant cloud formation. Despite this, skies are expected to be partly cloudy with a low probability of rain. Dominant winds will be moderate to fresh from the east and southeast.

Specifically for Playa del Carmen, the next 24 hours anticipate a generally hot environment, partly cloudy skies with no rain, and moderate winds from the east and southeast, ranging from 20 to 30 km/h, with gusts up to 40 km/h.

This dynamic meteorological landscape underscores the interconnectedness of global weather systems and the need for continuous vigilance, even as direct threats appear to recede.

SOURCE: Boletín Meteorológico - Gobierno de Solidaridad, Playa del Carmen

La tormenta tropical “Alvin” a las 06:00 hrs. Se localizaba a 665 km., al sursureste de Cabo San Lucas B.C.S., y a 445 km., al suroeste de playa Perula, Jal., con vientos máximos de 85 y rachas de 100 kph., moviéndose al nornoroeste a 17 kph., modelos de pronósticos indican que al medio día ...

30/05/2025

GLOBAL CLIMATE FUNDING CRISIS DEEPENS: UN URGES BILLIONS FOR ADAPTATION AS VULNERABLE NATIONS FACE UNPRECEDENTED THREATS
A STARK WARNING FROM THE UN SECRETARY-GENERAL: HALF OF ALL CLIMATE FINANCE MUST TARGET RESILIENCE AMIDST MOUNTING COSTS AND DATA GAPS
UNITED NATIONS, NY – In an escalating global climate crisis, UN Secretary-General António Guterres has issued an IMPASSIONED PLEA for an urgent and massive scale-up of funding dedicated to protecting nations from the devastating impacts of climate change, including CATASTROPHIC FLOODS and RELENTLESS SEA-LEVEL RISE. The international community, he asserts, is falling dangerously short in shielding the world's most vulnerable populations.

The UN's stark assessment reveals a critical imbalance: a staggering 50% of all climate finance provided by developed countries and multilateral development banks must now be redirected specifically towards ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE efforts. This dramatic reallocation is deemed essential to avert a looming humanitarian and economic catastrophe.

Developing countries, the frontline of climate impacts, urgently require an estimated US$70 BILLION to implement their existing adaptation plans. However, this figure is merely a prelude to the true scale of the challenge. Projections indicate that these costs could skyrocket to US$300 BILLION by 2030, and an unimaginable US$500 BILLION by 2050. The financial chasm between necessity and provision is widening at an alarming rate.

THE HIDDEN CHALLENGE: LACK OF CRITICAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA HINDERS EFFECTIVE PREPAREDNESS
Beyond the sheer financial need, a pervasive and often overlooked challenge threatens effective adaptation: the LACK OF HIGH-QUALITY CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA. Many developing nations simply do not possess the granular information required to fully comprehend their current and future climate risks, leaving them unable to make informed decisions about necessary adaptive measures. This data deficit creates blind spots in critical planning.

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS: A PROVEN LIFESAVER, YET ONE IN THREE REMAINS UNCOVERED
Amidst these formidable challenges, one solution stands out for its undeniable efficacy: PEOPLE-CENTRED, GENDER-SENSITIVE MULTI-HAZARD EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS. These systems are a HIGHLY EFFECTIVE method of strengthening adaptation and resilience, proving to be an exceptional investment. Experts estimate that every dollar spent on these services can avert losses worth at least TEN TIMES THEIR COST.

According to the Global Commission on Adaptation, a mere 24-hour advance warning of an impending storm or heatwave can REDUCE ENSUING DAMAGE BY A REMARKABLE 30 PERCENT. An expenditure of just US$800 MILLION on early warning services in developing countries holds the potential to PREVENT LOSSES RANGING FROM US$3 BILLION TO US$16 BILLION ANNUALLY.

It is therefore HARDLY SURPRISING that the vast majority of climate change adaptation plans, particularly in Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), identify early warning systems as a TOP PRIORITY.

Yet, despite this clear mandate and proven impact, a troubling reality persists: on average, ONE IN THREE PEOPLE GLOBALLY REMAINS UNCOVERED by early warning systems. Furthermore, the dissemination and communication of these vital warnings remain WOEFULLY WEAK in many developing countries, failing to reach the "last mile" where populations are most exposed and vulnerable.

A GLIMMER OF HOPE: INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MOBILIZES FOR SYSTEMIC CHANGE
Fortunately, there is growing momentum within the international community to address these critical gaps. Key alliances are forming to ensure a more robust and equitable response:

The Alliance for Hydromet Development unites major international development, humanitarian, and climate finance institutions to bolster the provision of high-quality weather, climate, hydrological, and related environmental services ('hydromet'). These services form the FOUNDATION for effective climate adaptation and resilience.
The Systematic Observations Financing Facility has been established to secure more sustainable hydromet financing and close crucial observation gaps, ensuring better data collection.
Recognizing that many disasters are water-related, the Water and Climate Coalition champions more concerted action in this critical area.
The Climate Risk and Early Warning Initiative (CREWS), with WMO, UNDRR, and the World Bank Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction as implementing partners, is dedicated to SAVING LIVES AND LIVELIHOODS through increased access to early warnings and risk information for people in LDCs and SIDS. This includes projects improving flood warnings in diverse nations from Afghanistan to Niger, enhancing communication for tropical cyclones and hurricanes in the CARIBBEAN and Pacific, and strengthening the capacity of national meteorological services.
The number of such initiatives is growing, a testament to increasing global awareness. However, the URGENCY OF CLIMATE ACTION is escalating even faster. The window for effective adaptation is rapidly closing, demanding not just more funding, but smarter, more targeted investments that reach those who need it most.

Adaptation and Resilience UN Secretary-General António Guterres wants an urgent scaling up of funds to provide greater protection against climate change impacts like floods and rising sea-levels.  Specifically, the UN estimates that 50% of the total share of climate finance provided by all devel...

30/05/2025

🚨 IMPORTANT: Hurricane Season Briefing for the Mexican Caribbean! 🚨

Playa del Carmen, Q.Roo – As the Mexican Caribbean anticipates an above-normal 2025 hurricane season, the recent formation of Tropical Storm Alvin in the Pacific serves as a powerful reminder of nature's formidable strength. While Alvin is far from our shores, its development underscores the vital need to immediately review and reinforce our protective measures.

A Look at Tropical Storm Alvin in the Pacific
Alvin has formed in the Pacific, packing winds of 65 km/h and gusts up to 85 km/h. Though it's tracking parallel to Mexico's central Pacific coast (Michoacán, Colima, Jalisco, Guerrero, and Nayarit) and bringing heavy rains and strong winds there, its presence highlights the broader importance of preparedness across ALL of Mexico's coastal regions.

Crucial Lessons for Your Business in the Mexican Caribbean:
The painful experience of Hurricane Otis taught us a clear lesson: inadequate protection is a false promise. Many businesses suffered millions in losses because their "hurricane-proof" windows weren't certified, turning into dangerous projectiles instead of offering safety.

Don't make the same mistake! Your security investments must be:

Certified and Regulated: Demand materials that meet strict local and international standards.
Smart and Strategic:
For windows: Polycarbonate is your best bet for superior impact resistance.
For external, beachfront protection: Choose Kevlar or ballistic nylon tarps.
🚫 NEVER use polypropylene! It's not strong enough and can fail catastrophically.
Safeguard your business, your employees, and your customers. Quality foresight and thorough preparation are your strongest defense.

Stay informed and act NOW. Your resilience depends on it.

Viento (rachas 60 a 80 km/h) y posibles torbellinos: Coah, NL. T. Máx. (40 a 45 °C): Son, Sin, Chih, Coah, Dgo, SLP, Nay, Jal, Col, Mich, Gro, Oax, Chis, Ver, Ta...

30/05/2025

The Ocean's Critical Role in Carbon Mitigation: A Vital Report from AOML Scientists
Miami, FL – In an ongoing effort to understand and combat global climate change, scientists at NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) are conducting fundamental measurements that reveal the ocean's crucial role as a buffer against rising global carbon emissions. This work is essential for assessing progress towards the Paris Agreement goals and the health of our marine ecosystems.

The ocean has historically functioned as a natural carbon sink, absorbing a significant portion of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). However, recent research suggests that this absorption capacity might be weakening, which would have significant implications for the global climate.

AOML scientists are active participants in the development of the annual Global Carbon Budget Report, a comprehensive assessment of global carbon emissions. This report provides a vital snapshot of the current state of emissions and the progress, or lack thereof, in meeting international commitments.

To monitor carbon levels in both the ocean and the atmosphere, AOML researchers utilize the innovative Ships of Opportunity Program. This program employs instruments installed on cruise ships and other vessels sailing commercial routes, enabling continuous and large-scale data collection on how the ocean is absorbing carbon. The data gathered by AOML is fundamental for understanding how the ocean buffers the impacts of climate change.

The 2024 Global Carbon Budget Report highlights a concerning reality: global carbon emissions continue to rise. Although emission rates are not increasing as rapidly as in the past, the overall trend remains a source of concern, and the world is lagging in meeting international emission reduction targets.

This research serves as a reminder of the complex interconnection between the atmosphere and the oceans, and the urgency of adopting global measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The work of AOML scientists is indispensable in providing the necessary scientific basis for informed decision-making in the fight against climate change.

For more details on this research, you can consult the original publication on the NOAA AOML portal: Scientists at AOML Measure Ocean's Crucial Buffering Against Rising Global Carbon Emissions

Every year, scientists at AOML aid the international effort led by the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute Global Carbon Budget.

30/05/2025

🚨 URGENT Hurricane Preparedness Alert for Playa del Carmen! 🚨

With the 2025 Hurricane Season expected to be above normal, it's crucial to get ready NOW! 🌪️ Our latest guide, based on scientific insights and lessons learned from past events like Hurricane Otis, is out. Don't get caught off guard!

Here's what you need to know:

Understanding the Threat: Did you know the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf average 14 tropical storms each season, with 7 turning into hurricanes? 🌊 Be aware of the dangers: storm surge, inland flooding, destructive winds, and even tornadoes.

Protect Your Property – Invest Smart! 🛡️

For windows, polycarbonate is your best bet! 💪 It's incredibly impact-resistant.
For external protection, especially on beachfront properties, choose Kevlar or ballistic nylon tarps. They offer superior strength against debris and high winds.
🚫 NEVER use polypropylene for coastal protection! It's just not strong enough and can become a dangerous projectile.
The Otis Lesson: Remember Hurricane Otis? Many businesses faced massive losses because "hurricane-proof" windows and aluminum shutters weren't certified. 🤦‍♀️ Don't fall for false security! Insist on certified, regulated protection that meets local and international hurricane resistance standards. Consult experts!

Your Action Plan:

Before Season: Get your emergency kit ready! 🎒
When it Approaches: Monitor alerts, evacuate if told to! 🏃‍♀️
During the Storm: Stay safe indoors! 🏠
Aftermath: Be cautious and follow official guidance! ✅
Your safety, and the security of your business and employees, depend on being prepared. Don't wait until it's too late! Read our full guide for all the details (link in bio/comments).

Hurricanes are among nature's most powerful and destructive phenomena. On average, 14 tropical storms, 7 of which become hurricanes form over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of America during the hurricane season which runs from June 1 to November 30 each year. In the Central Pacific Ocea...

30/05/2025

NOAA predicts above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season
Above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures set the stage
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Miami, FL – May 30, 2025 – Forecasters at NOAA's National Weather Service predict an above-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year. This outlook, which spans from June 1 to November 30, indicates a 60% chance of an above-normal season, with only a 10% chance of a below-normal season and a 30% chance of a near-normal season.

NOAA forecasts a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of these, 6 to 10 are predicted to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA holds a 70% confidence in these ranges.

The expected elevated activity is attributed to a combination of factors: continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures across the Atlantic, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for increased activity from the West African Monsoon, which often serves as a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes.

"As we face what is predicted to be a highly active hurricane season, preparedness is paramount," stated NOAA officials. "Our advanced weather models and forecasting tools are more sophisticated than ever, but these tools must be met with robust personal and community readiness."

Important Safety Guidance for Coastal Residents
In light of the anticipated active season, NOAA strongly urges residents in coastal areas to only protect their homes with approved and certified materials. While some materials may seem convenient, it is critical to understand their limitations, especially as storm intensity increases.

For hurricanes reaching Category 3 or higher, standard aluminum accordion shutters and plywood sheets can become counterproductive and extremely dangerous. Under the immense force of winds characteristic of these powerful storms, these materials can detach from homes and transform into dangerous projectiles, posing significant threats to life and property.

Residents should consult with local civil protection authorities (Protección Civil) and certified contractors to identify and install hurricane protection systems that meet strict safety standards and are designed to withstand the forces of major hurricanes. Investing in proper, tested protection is an essential step in safeguarding your home and family.

Additional Recommendations for Businesses in Coastal Areas of the Mexican Caribbean
With the 2025 hurricane season projected to be above normal, it's imperative that business owners in Mexico's coastal areas take extra precautions and review their protection plans.

It is fundamental to use only approved and regulated materials to protect your properties. Recent experience with Hurricane Otis in Mexico clearly demonstrated that so-called "hurricane windows" and aluminum shutters that do not meet adequate standards can be ineffective and, worse, become a significant risk.

In the case of Otis, the lack of regulation and certification for these materials led to millions in losses for businesses and properties. Instead of offering protection, they detached and acted as devastating projectiles. These improvised or low-quality "solutions" can create a false sense of security.

It is crucial for businesses to invest in certified and regulated protection. Ensure that any security system for windows and doors complies with local and international hurricane resistance standards. Consult with hurricane protection experts who can offer robust and proven solutions, rather than relying on materials that have not been validated to withstand winds from Category 3 hurricanes and above. Your investment and the safety of your employees and customers depend on it.

NOAA continues to enhance its forecast communications and storm recovery efforts, including upgrades to the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) and extending the Global Tropical Hazards Outlook from two to three weeks. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will also offer Spanish language text products for key advisories this season.

This outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2025 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.

Above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures set the stage