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Weather and climate updates for New Zealand and worldwide from NIWA's Forecasting Services team. Offenders may be blocked from contributing to our pages.

NIWAWeather provides accurate weather forecasts and climate outlooks for Aotearoa New Zealand. Our expertise and capabilities in the fields of weather and climate are significant, resulting from years of research, strong international partnerships, an extensive network of weather and climate stations and the computational power of our supercomputer – one of the most powerful of its kind in the Southern Hemisphere. Read more about the supercomputer here:
https://niwa.co.nz/our-services/high-performance-computing-facility

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28/10/2026

🎥 NZ Drought Index Shows Dryness Expanding Across Parts of the North Island

The Hotspot Watch is back for the 2026-27 season, providing a weekly snapshot of rainfall, soil moisture conditions, developing dry areas, and rainfall expected over the coming week. Areas with significant soil moisture deficits are classified as hotspots, and if these persist, they can evolve into drought conditions.

A hotspot has now formed about East Cape, Gisborne, where soils are among the driest in the North Island for this time of year.

Click the link in the comments to learn more.

27/10/2026

Gusty westerly winds will again affect much of the South Island and lower North Island on Wednesday.

Locations in the interior South Island and in Stewart Island may see gusts approach or exceed 100 km/h.

25/10/2026

🌦️ Labour Day weather: North Island takes the win! 🏆

If you’re planning to get outdoors this Monday, the North Island looks to have the better deal weather-wise!

A fast-moving front is bringing unsettled weather up the country, with the South Island set to see the worst of it, including heavy rain on the West Coast and some strong, gusty northwesterlies.

The North Island won’t escape the rain entirely, though, with the front moving northwards and reaching Wellington later in the day.

🚗 Heading home after the long weekend? Keep an eye on the forecast and drive to the conditions.

👉 Check MetService for the latest up to date watches and warnings: https://www.metservice.com/warnings/

Enjoy the extra day off!

23/10/2026

Seth is here with your holiday weekend forecast.

Saturday will be mainly dry, but also gusty and warm in several regions. A 30-degree temperature reading can't be ruled out.

Sunday will generally be similar to Saturday.

Labour Day will see heavy rain reach the western and lower South Island, while the North Island stays mostly dry.

22/10/2026

Sunny Start, Wet End for Some - Long Weekend Forecast

A mostly dry and sunny start to the long weekend is on the cards, but a major change is expected by Monday.

In this week's forecast, Earth Sciences New Zealand's Chester Lampkin is joined by MetService meteorologist John Law to break down what's shaping up to be a weekend of two halves

19/10/2026

📊 NIWA 35 Through Mid-November

High pressure is keeping much of Aotearoa/New Zealand settled and relatively dry through the end of this week, which is clearly reflected in the NIWA 35 model guidance (image below)

Beyond that, signs point to a more active weather pattern developing through late October and likely into the first week of November, with westerlies becoming a more prominent feature.

For the latest seasonal forecast and climate outlook, be sure to visit our official Seasonal Climate Outlook. 🌦️

17/10/2026

🌀 The first tropical cyclone of the season has formed in the Southwest Pacific!

Tropical Cyclone Wati developed earlier today, ahead of the usual cyclone season, which runs from November to April. An early but not unprecedented start.

Wati could bring heavy rain, strong winds and rough seas to parts of the Pacific, including the Cook Islands, with the potential for flooding and disruption to travel and marine activities.Communities in the region should keep an eye on forecasts and follow advice from their local meteorological services.

The good news for New Zealand is that Wati poses no threat to us/

Earlier this week, we released our 2026/27 Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook with our colleagues at MetService New Zealand and partners across the Pacific. We’re expecting normal to above-normal tropical cyclone activity in parts of the region this season.

So, while Wati has arrived a little ahead of schedule, it’s a timely reminder that cyclone season is just around the corner and now’s a good time for Pacific communities to get prepared.

🔗 Read our seasonal outlook: https://www.earthsciences.nz/news/normal-to-above-normal-tropical-cyclone-activity-expected-for-the-southwest-pacific

🗺️ Follow official cyclone tracks and updates for Wati from Fiji Meteorological Service: https://www.met.gov.fj/tropical-cyclone/tc-forecast-track-map/

16/10/2026

🥶 Chilly Weekend, Brighter Ahead

Southerlies are keeping things cool across Aotearoa/New Zealand this weekend. 🌬️ Expect improving weather on Saturday, although a few showers will linger in eastern areas and the lower North Island. Sunday looks even better, with a frosty start followed by a pleasant afternoon for many.

🎥 Check out our short video forecast below.

15/10/2026

Rain, Snow, Then Sunshine? NZ Weekend Weather

14/10/2026

📈 El Niño Continues to Strengthen

The very strong El Niño remains on track, with the 90-day Relative Niño 3.4 Index reaching +2.0°C and the traditional ONI at +2.74°C, now within the very strong category. Forecasts indicate the event is likely to strengthen further, with a peak over the coming months.

El Niño is known to have impacts on rainfall patterns and weather all across the globe.

Want to know what that could mean for your area of Aotearoa/New Zealand? Check out our latest Seasonal Climate Outlook. Link in the comments 👇

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