07/05/2026
Update:
Mōrena, here's an early morning update from our Hydrology team:
Last night, MetService added a yellow strong wind watch across the entire Nelson Tasman region for Friday midday to 9pm, expect northerly winds that may approach severe gale in exposed places.
Also, in the east, the orange heavy rain warning had additional advice, to expect 120 to 180mm but possibly as much as 250mm along the Richmond Ranges (range behind Maitai River through to St Arnaud) on top of the rain already fallen to 8pm Thursday.
Besides the addition of the strong wind watch across the region, based on the current weather forecast, the event in general remains of a nature and scale outlined yesterday, with forecast for the heaviest weather this afternoon.
In the ranges of Golden Bay and Tākaka Hill, overnight between 150 and 275mm rainfall was recorded, with the higher amounts in the Aorere River catchment. The Aorere and Tākaka Rivers have started to rise, and are both currently below Annual Flood flow. Road signage has been installed at the usual low points in roads in the lower Aorere River Valley.
As outlined yesterday, based on forecast rainfall, we expect moderate flooding in the Tākaka River and tributaries, between an Annual Flood flow and 5-year Flood flows which may see the river flow outside of normal river channels and across adjacent paddocks. At this stage, it is not expected that water will be across at Waitapu Splash, but this remains a possibility, especially early evening as the Tākaka River peaks. The Cobb Dam has good capacity for storage. For the Aorere River, we expect low to moderate flooding, with Annual Flood flows possible.
In the hills behind the Riuwaka River and Brooklyn River, 40mm rainfall was recorded overnight and these rivers have started to rise. Based on forecast rainfall, we expect low to moderate flooding with Annual Flood flows, where rivers are running bank full but contained within banks. There is a moderate risk of scattered thunderstorms in this area, and the Brooklyn River will be closely monitored.
In the main Motueka River catchment 20-30mm of rainfall was recorded overnight, and rivers have risen slightly. Based on forecast rainfall, we expect low flood flows in the main Motueka River, with Annual Flood flows where the river is contained within its banks.
The Motupiko River catchment recorded 20mm of rainfall overnight. Based on forecast rainfall in the Motupiko River, we expect moderate flooding of 5-year Flood flows, which may see the river flow outside of normal river channels and across adjacent paddocks. It is possible that surface water may cross the road between Korere and Kikiwa and the state highway near Kohatu.
Across the Bryant and Richmond ranges and the hills to the east behind Nelson and Richmond, 20 to 70mm was recorded overnight. Eastern rivers have started to rise, and based on forecast rainfall, we expect moderate flooding in the Wai-iti, Wairoa and Maitai Rivers, of Annual Flood to 5 -year Flood flows, where rivers are running bank full and may flow across adjacent low-lying paddocks and across known low points in roads.
There is a possibility of land slippage later today and early evening where the ground is sodden and heavy rainfall associated with strong winds and topographic uplift over the hills and scattered thunderstorms are forecast. Areas where this risk is possible include Pōhara, Abel Tasman, Richmond and Nelson. Likewise, treefall is also possible later today with severe northerly gales possible in exposed places.
Large wave action on northerly facing beaches of Golden and Tasman Bays can be expected with wind-driven waves. Areas possibly impacted include the shorelines of Abel Tasman and Ruby Bay through to Durville Island.
There is a moderate risk of scattered thunderstorm activity across the region. This may cause localised surface flooding.
Links for more information:
• MetService warnings: https://www.metservice.com/warnings/home -south.
• Road closures across the region: https://rebrand.ly/httfpkm
• River flow reports: https://www.tasman.govt.nz/flow-report/
• Rainfall reports: https://www.tasman.govt.nz/report/