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Philippine Weather Watch, Cases Blvd, Agoo (2026)

25/08/2026

🌧️ HABAGAT MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER

The Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) may continue to remain active over the Philippines through September 7, based on the latest ECMWF model forecast.

The latest model projection suggests that the monsoon flow could continue bringing moisture and periods of rain to parts of the Philippines, particularly areas exposed to the southwest monsoon.

📌 What to expect:
▪️ Habagat may remain active through the first week of September
▪️ Periods of rain may continue, especially over western and northern Luzon and portions of the Visayas
▪️ Rainfall intensity and coverage can vary from day to day
▪️ Any nearby tropical cyclone or disturbance could potentially enhance the Habagat further

⚠️ LONG-RANGE FORECAST: This is still a model projection and not a confirmed forecast. The strength and duration of the Habagat can still change as we get closer to September 7.

🌧️ The Habagat season may not be over yet. Continue monitoring the latest weather updates and official advisories.

📊 Source: ECMWF / Windy
📅 Model Run: August 25, 2026
🔭 Forecast Run: September 7, 2026

25/08/2026

🌀 ANOTHER STORM ‼️

Weather models are keeping an eye on another potential tropical cyclone that could develop east of the Philippines around August 31, 2026.

According to the latest model projections, ICON, GFS, and ECMWF continue to show a possible tropical disturbance or cyclone developing after Typhoon Saudel.

🔴 IMPORTANT: This is still a long-range model forecast. The system has not necessarily formed yet, and its eventual track, strength, and impact on the Philippines remain highly uncertain.

The consistent appearance of this feature across multiple major weather models is something worth monitoring in the coming days. If the system develops, it could potentially influence weather conditions over the Philippines, including rainfall, winds, and the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat).

📌 What to watch:
▪️ Possible tropical cyclone development around August 31
▪️ Location: east of the Philippines
▪️ Track and intensity are still subject to major changes
▪️ Continued monitoring of ICON, GFS, and ECMWF is recommended
▪️ Residents should rely on official advisories as the system becomes better defined

⚠️ Please remember: A model forecast several days in advance is not a guarantee that a storm will form or affect the Philippines. Forecast confidence will improve as the date gets closer.

📊 Source: ICON / Windy.com
📅 Model Run: August 25, 2026
🔭 Forecast Period: August 31, 2026
Stay updated. Stay prepared. Weather conditions can change quickly.

25/08/2026

🌧️ NAKAPAG-LABA NA BA ANG LAHAT? - HABAGAT

The latest ECMWF model continues to indicate significant rainfall across parts of Luzon and the Visayas as the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) is enhanced by Super Typhoon Saudel.

📅 Forecast Period: August 27, 2026, 12 PM – August 31, 2026, 12 PM
🌀 Weather Driver: Habagat enhanced by Super Typhoon Saudel
🌧️ Forecast: ECMWF Rain Accumulation

🟡 50–100 MM — MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
Luzon: Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Southern Aurora, Laguna, Romblon, Camarines Sur, Albay.

Visayas: Aklan, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Southern Iloilo.

➡️ 50–100 mm accumulated rainfall may bring periods of moderate to heavy rain, particularly during active Habagat bursts and thunderstorms.

🟠 100–200 MM — HEAVY RAINFALL
Luzon: Metro Manila, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas, Northern Palawan.

Visayas: Antique.

➡️ 100–200 mm is a substantial rainfall accumulation. Prolonged or intense rainfall may cause urban flooding, waterlogging, and rising river levels, especially in vulnerable areas.

🔴 200–300 MM — VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
Luzon: Ilocos Sur, Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet.

➡️ 200–300 mm is a very significant amount of rain. If concentrated over shorter periods, the potential for flash floods and landslides may increase, particularly in mountainous and low-lying areas.

🟣 300 MM+ — EXTREMELY HIGH RAINFALL

Luzon: Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro.

➡️ 300 mm or more over four days represents an exceptionally high rainfall accumulation. Repeated heavy rainfall could lead to serious flooding, swollen rivers, and landslides, especially where soils become saturated.

⚠️ IMPORTANT REMINDER
These values represent ECMWF model-projected accumulated rainfall, not guaranteed rainfall totals. Rainfall will not necessarily fall continuously throughout the entire four-day period, and actual amounts may vary depending on the position and strength of Super Typhoon Saudel and the behavior of the Habagat.

🌧️ Even areas outside the listed provinces may still experience rain, especially neighboring areas along the monsoon flow.

Residents in flood-prone and landslide-prone communities are encouraged to stay updated with official weather bulletins and local advisories.

Source: ECMWF Rain Accumulation / Windy
Forecast Period: August 27–31, 2026

24/08/2026

🌡️ EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE VISAYAS AND MINDANAO

Drought conditions continue to persist across several parts of the Philippines, with Exceptional to Extreme drought still affecting large portions of Mindanao and the Visayas, based on the latest drought monitoring data.

🔴 EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME
Mindanao:
Whole Mindanao except Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, and Basilan

Visayas:
Eastern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, and Iloilo

Luzon:
Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Oriental Mindoro, Batangas, Laguna, Nueva Vizcaya, and Palawan

Exceptional to Extreme drought, indicating a very large and prolonged rainfall deficit that may place significant stress on agriculture, vegetation, and water resources.

🟠 MODERATE TO SEVERE
Mindanao:
Basilan

Visayas:
Capiz and Guimaras

Luzon:
Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Masbate, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Quezon, Batangas, Marinduque, Cavite, and Quirino .

Moderate to Severe drought, meaning the accumulated rainfall deficit is significant and may increasingly affect soil moisture and water availability.

🟡 MINOR TO MILD
Mindanao:
Tawi-Tawi

Visayas:
Siquijor, Guimaras, and Biliran — Minor to Mild drought.

Luzon:
Metro Manila, Quirino, Aurora, Laguna, Cavite, Bulacan, Rizal, Isabela, Cagayan, Apayao, Mountain Province, Ifugao, and Ilocos Norte

Minor to Mild drought, indicating a smaller but measurable rainfall deficit.

🌧️ BUT IT'S RAINING HERE — SO WHY IS IT STILL CALLED DROUGHT?
Drought does NOT mean that an area receives zero rainfall.

An area can still experience rain showers, thunderstorms, or even heavy rain on certain days and remain under a drought classification.

The reason is that drought monitoring looks at rainfall deficits and moisture conditions accumulated over a longer period, rather than just today's weather.

For example, an area may receive rain today, but if it has received far less rainfall than normal over the preceding weeks or months, the accumulated deficit can remain large enough for drought conditions to persist.

🌧️ Rain today ≠ drought is immediately over.

It usually takes consistent and sufficient rainfall over time to substantially reduce a long-term rainfall deficit.

⚠️ IMPORTANT: This map is a drought-monitoring assessment, not a daily rainfall forecast. Drought severity can improve or worsen as rainfall patterns change.

Source: CzechGlobe / Windy
Drought Monitoring: August 24, 2026

24/08/2026

KAYA PA BA? HABAGAT WILL EXTEND UNTIL SEPTEMBER 7 🌧☔

Extended computer model runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicate that the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) is expected to remain active across the Philippines until at least September 7, 2026.

The persistent monsoon pattern will continue pulling moist air masses from surrounding oceanic waters, maintaining a prolonged period of elevated rainfall across the western sections of the country.

EXPECTED IMPACTS & AFFECTED AREAS
▪️ Prolonged Monsoon Activity: Recurring monsoon surges and thunderstorm clusters will continue to bring intermittent to heavy rainfall over the next two weeks.
▪️ High-Risk Regions: Western Luzon (Ilocos Region, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, MIMAROPA) and Western Visayas remain in the main corridor of the southwesterly wind flow.
▪️ Heightened Hydrological Hazards: Weeks of sustained rain have left ground conditions heavily saturated, sharply increasing the risk of flash floods, river swellings, and rain-induced landslides.

FORECAST OUTLOOK & SAFETY REMINDERS
▪️ Long-Range Model Variability: Forecasts extending beyond 7 to 10 days represent general atmospheric trends and remain subject to track and intensity shifts in upcoming model runs.
▪️ Coastal & Maritime Conditions: Expect moderate to rough seas along the western seaboards of Luzon and Visayas due to consistent southwesterly winds.
▪️ Community Vigilance: Residents in low-lying, coastal, and slope-prone communities should maintain emergency preparedness and clear local drainage channels during temporary breaks in rain.

SOURCE: ECMWF via Windy
Model Run: August 24, 2026
Forecast Target: September 7, 2026

24/08/2026

🌀 MAY BAGYO ULIT?

Another weather disturbance may develop east of Luzon by August 31, according to the latest ICON model forecast.

The model is showing a possible tropical cyclone circulation over the Philippine Sea, east of the country, while another system is seen farther west near Vietnam. If this forecast trend continues, the developing system could potentially influence the weather pattern over the Philippines, including the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat).

🌧️ Possible impacts to monitor:
▪️ The system could enhance the moisture flow toward the Philippines.
▪️ Habagat-related rains may continue or become more active, particularly over western Luzon and portions of the Visayas.
▪️ The eventual track and strength will determine whether it has a significant effect on the country.

⚠️ IMPORTANT: This is still a long-range numerical weather model forecast. A tropical cyclone is not yet confirmed, and the location, timing, strength, and track can change significantly in succeeding model runs.

The next few days will be important to watch as we monitor whether this potential system continues to appear consistently in the models.

🌀 It looks like the tropical cyclone season may still have more to watch.

Source: ICON / Windy
Model Run: August 24, 2026
Forecast: August 31, 2026

24/08/2026

🌧️ HABAGAT IS COMING — ARE YOU READY?

The latest ECMWF rainfall forecast indicates that the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), enhanced by Typhoon Saudel, could bring widespread rainfall across parts of Luzon and the Visayas over the next four days.

📅 Forecast Period: August 27, 2026, 12 PM – August 31, 2026, 12 PM
🌧️ Model: ECMWF Rain Accumulation
🌀 Weather Driver: Habagat enhanced by Typhoon Saudel

🟡 50–100 mm — MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATED RAINFALL

LUZON: Ilocos Norte, Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Southern Aurora, Romblon, Camarines Sur, and Albay.

VISAYAS: Aklan, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, and Negros Oriental.

➡️ 50–100 mm over four days can produce periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rain, especially during stronger monsoon bursts or thunderstorms.

🟠 100–200 mm — HEAVY ACCUMULATED RAINFALL

LUZON: Metro Manila, Abra, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas, and Northern Palawan.

VISAYAS: Antique.

➡️ 100–200 mm over four days represents a substantial amount of rainfall. Prolonged or intense episodes may lead to waterlogging, flooding in vulnerable areas, and possible landslides, particularly in mountainous and low-lying locations.

🔴 200–300 mm — VERY HEAVY ACCUMULATED RAINFALL

LUZON: Ilocos Sur, Pangasinan, La Union, and Benguet.

➡️ 200–300 mm over four days is a significant rainfall accumulation. If much of this rain falls within shorter periods, the risk of flash flooding, river swelling, and landslides can increase considerably.

🟣 300 mm+ — EXTREMELY HIGH ACCUMULATED RAINFALL

LUZON: Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental Mindoro.

➡️ 300 mm or more over four days is an exceptionally high accumulation. Areas receiving repeated heavy rainfall could face serious flooding and landslide risks, especially in areas with saturated soil and poor drainage.

⚠️ IMPORTANT: These are model-projected rainfall accumulations, not guaranteed rainfall totals. The actual amount can vary depending on the movement and strength of Typhoon Saudel, the position of the Habagat, and localized thunderstorms.

Rainfall can also be unevenly distributed—an area forecast for 200 mm does not necessarily mean it will rain continuously for four days. A large portion of the accumulation could occur during only a few intense periods.

🌧️ Residents in the affected areas, especially those in flood-prone and landslide-prone locations, are advised to continue monitoring official weather advisories as the forecast period approaches.

Source: ECMWF Rain Accumulation / Windy
Model Run/Forecast: August 27–31, 2026

23/08/2026

🌡️ EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE IN PARTS OF THE VISAYAS AND MINDANAO

Drought conditions continue to affect several parts of the Philippines, with Exceptional to Extreme drought still being observed across large portions of Mindanao and the Visayas, according to the latest drought monitoring map.

🔴 EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME
Mindanao:
Whole Mindanao except Davao del Norte, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, and Camiguin — Exceptional to Extreme drought, indicating a very significant and prolonged rainfall deficit that may increasingly affect water resources, agriculture, and vegetation.

Visayas:
Eastern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Iloilo, Aklan, Capiz, and Biliran — Exceptional to Extreme drought, reflecting substantial long-term rainfall deficits.

Luzon:
Palawan and Masbate — Exceptional to

TAKE NOTE: Extreme drought, indicating significant accumulated rainfall deficits.

🟠 MODERATE TO SEVERE
Mindanao:
Davao del Norte, Camiguin, and Sulu

Visayas:
Northern Antique, Guimaras

Luzon:
Catanduanes, Albay, Camarines Sur, Sorsogon, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Quezon, Batangas, and Nueva Vizcaya

TAKE NOTE: Moderate to Severe drought, meaning rainfall deficits are becoming significant and may begin placing greater stress on agriculture and water availability.

🟡 MINOR TO MILD
Mindanao:
Tawi-Tawi

Visayas:
Siquijor and Guimaras

Luzon:
Quirino, Aurora, Laguna, Cavite, and Bulacan

TAKE NOTE: Minor to Mild drought, indicating a smaller but still measurable rainfall deficit.

🌧️ DOES DROUGHT MEAN THERE IS NO RAIN?
Not necessarily. This is an important point.
A province can still experience rain showers, thunderstorms, or even several rainy days while remaining classified as being under drought conditions.

Drought monitoring generally looks at rainfall deficits and accumulated moisture over a longer period, rather than simply asking whether it rained today or yesterday.

For example, an area may receive heavy rain today, but if it has experienced weeks or months of below-normal rainfall, the accumulated deficit can remain large enough for drought conditions to continue.

So if you're saying “Umuulan naman dito, bakit drought?” — both can be true. 🌧️

The rainfall may provide temporary relief, but it does not immediately erase a long-term rainfall deficit.

⚠️ IMPORTANT: This map represents a drought-monitoring assessment, not a daily rainfall forecast. Conditions can improve or worsen depending on how much and how consistently an area receives rainfall in the coming weeks.

Source: CzechGlobe / Windy
Drought Monitoring: August 24, 2026

23/08/2026

BATANES ON WATCH: SIGNAL NO. 1 OR 2 NOT RULED OUT AS TYPHOON "SAUDEL" TRACKS CLOSER

The possibility of hoisting Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 or 2 over Batanes is not ruled out if Typhoon "Saudel" maintains a slightly lower or southward track shift as it moves northwestward over the sea east of Extreme Northern Luzon.

Regardless of direct landfall, the typhoon's broad circulation will continue to pull and enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), bringing renewed heavy rains, thunderstorms, and gusty winds across the western sections of Luzon and Visayas.

KEY FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS
▪️ Batanes Track Watch: A southward shift in Typhoon "Saudel's" track could bring its outer wind field closer to Batanes, which may necessitate wind signals in the coming days.
▪️ Sustained Monsoon Pull: The system continues to draw a wide, moist southwesterly wind flow across the archipelago, keeping monsoon activity elevated.
▪️ Impacted Areas: Western sections of Luzon (Ilocos Region, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, MIMAROPA) and portions of Visayas remain most exposed to recurring monsoon downpours.
▪️ Coastal Hazard Alert: Moderate to rough sea conditions are expected along the northern and western seaboards of Luzon. Small seacraft should exercise extreme caution when venturing out to sea.

SAFETY & PREPAREDNESS REMINDERS
▪️ Residents in Batanes and Extreme Northern Luzon should closely monitor track adjustments and official updates from PAGASA.
▪️ Communities in low-lying and slope-prone areas of Western Luzon and Visayas should remain vigilant against sudden flash floods and rain-induced landslides.

SOURCE: ICON via Windy
Model Run: August 23, 2026
Forecast Target: August 28, 2026

23/08/2026

WALANG PASOK LIST FOR AUGUST 24, 2026 | MONDAY | DUE TO HABAGAT

PLEASE REFRESH FOR MORE UPDATE ‼️

ABRA
▪️WHOLE PROVINCE – No in-person classes, both public and private; shift to alternative learning modalities. Government work also on alternative work arrangements.

BENGUET
▪️Atok – No in-person classes from preschool to senior high school, both public and private; shift to alternative learning modalities.

▪️Kibungan (face-to-face classes; public and private)

PAMPANGA
▪️Magalang – No in-person classes and government work, both public and private, in celebration of the Feast of San Bartolome.

▪️San Simon (face-to-face classes, public and private) until Aug. 28

▪️Sto. Tomas (face-to-face classes, public and private) until Aug. 28

SOURCE: LGU via Inquirer

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