26/08/2023
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO.11 ☔
Typhoon GORING (SAOLA)
Issued at 5:00 PM, 26 August 2023
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.
GORING CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE SEA EAST OF CAGAYAN
•Location of Center (4:00 PM)
The center of the eye of Typhoon GORING was estimated based on all available data, including those from Aparri Weather Radar, at 145 km East Northeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan (17.9°N, 123.1°E)
•Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 190 km/h, and central pressure of 955 hPa
•Present Movement
Southward at 10 km/h
•Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 280 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No.3 (Wind threat: Storm-force winds)
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
•The northeastern portion of Cagayan (Santa Ana) and the extreme eastern portion of Isabela (Divilacan, Palanan)
TCWS No.2 (Wind threat: Gale-force winds)
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
•The eastern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue, San Mariano, Ilagan City, Maconacon, Cabagan, Tumauini, San Pablo), eastern portion of Cagayan (Peñablanca, Baggao, Gattaran, Lal-Lo, Gonzaga, Santa Teresita, Buguey), and the northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran)
TCWS No.1 (Wind threat: Strong winds)
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
•Batanes, the rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, northern and central portion of Aurora (Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Baler, Maria Aurora, San Luis), Quirino, the rest of Isabela, Apayao, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Kalinga, Abra, eastern portion of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Adams, Vintar, Carasi, Nueva Era, Banna, Marcos, Dingras, Solsona, Piddig, Dumalneg, Bangui), Pollilo Islands, eastern portion of Benguet (Bokod, Buguias, Kabayan, Mankayan), eastern portion of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Pantabangan, Bongabon, Gabaldon, Laur, Rizal), and Calaguas Islands
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
Forecast accumulated rainfall from today to tomorrow afternoon
• 100-200 mm: Mainland Cagayan and Isabela
• 50-100 mm: Babuyan Islands, Aurora, Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, and northern Quezon including Polilio Islands.
Forecast accumulated rainfall from tomorrow afternoon to Monday afternoon
• 100-200 mm: The eastern portion of mainland Cagayan and Isabela
• 50-100 mm: Babuyan Islands, the rest of mainland Cagayan and Isabela, Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, Aurora and northern Quezon including Polilio Islands.
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by GORING will bring occasional or monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas over the next three days. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #4 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 AM today and the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook at 4:00 PM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Severe Winds
Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds may be experienced within the areas under Wind Signal No. 3. Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 is in effect. Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.1 is hoisted.
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
The enhanced Southwest Monsoon will continue to bring gusty conditions over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
• Today: Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Bicol Region and most of MIMAROPA.
• Tomorrow: Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, and Camiguin
• Monday: Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, and most of Zamboanga Peninsula.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern and eastern coastal waters of Luzon. Sea travel is risky for certain types or tonnage of vessels over these areas. Disruption in civilian maritime activities is expected over these waters (e.g., suspension of sea travel). For more information, refer to Gale Warning #4 issued at 5:00 PM today.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• GORING is forecast to move generally southward to southeastward in the next 24 hours before turning east northeastward to northeastward on Monday. Afterwards, the typhoon will exit its looping path and move northwestward on Tuesday towards the sea east of Taiwan while moving on a consistent pace.
• Due to highly favorable environment, GORING is forecast to steadily intensify throughout most of the forecast period and may reach super typhoon category on Monday. Upwelling of cooler waters due to its slow movement will limit further intensification by late Monday or early Tuesday.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Link: tinyurl.com/GoringPH
Note: This archive of previously issued bulletins for a particular tropical cyclone will remain available on this website within one (1) calendar week only from the termination of bulletin issuances.