30/10/2024
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 17
Super Typhoon (KONG-REY)
Issued at 5:00 PM, 30 October 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 8:00 PM today.
SUPER TYPHOON “LEON” CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO BATANES.
• Location of Center (4:00 PM)
The center of the eye of Super Typhoon LEON was estimated based on all available data at 215 km East Southeast of Basco, Batanes (20.0°N, 124.0°E)
• Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 230 km/h, and central pressure of 925 hPa
• Present Movement
Northwestward at 20 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 600 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 4 Wind threat: Typhoon-force winds
Warning lead time: 12 hours
Range of wind speeds: 118 to 184 km/h (Beaufort 12)
Potential impacts of winds: Significant to severe threat to life and property
-Luzon
Batanes
TCWS No. 3 Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
-Luzon
The eastern portion of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Is., Camiguin Is., Calayan Is.,), and the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana)
TCWS No. 2 Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
-Luzon
The rest of Babuyan Islands, the rest of mainland Cagayan, the northern portion of Isabela (Santo Tomas, Santa Maria, Quezon, Delfin Albano, San Pablo, Ilagan City, Tumauini, Cabagan, Palanan, Quirino, Divilacan, Mallig, Maconacon, Gamu, Burgos, Roxas, San Mariano, Reina Mercedes, San Manuel, Naguilian, Benito Soliven), Apayao, Kalinga, the northern and eastern portions of Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Malibcong, Lagayan, San Juan, Lagangilang, Licuan-Baay, Daguioman), the eastern portion of Mountain Province (Paracelis), and Ilocos Norte
TCWS No. 1 Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
-Luzon
The rest of Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, the rest of Abra, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, and the northeastern portion of Tarlac (Camiling, San Clemente, Paniqui, Moncada, Anao, San Manuel, Pura, Ramos, Victoria, Gerona, Santa Ignacia, City of Tarlac, La Paz)
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 11 issued at 5:00 PM today for the Heavy Rainfall Outlook associated with LEON.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Significant to severe impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 4.
• Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No 3.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The hoisting of Wind Signal No. 5 is also not ruled out should LEON moves to the left of its forecast track.
Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of LEON will also bring gusty conditions (strong to gale-force) over the following localities (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds) outside Wind Signal areas:
• Today (30 October): Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, most of Visayas, and Dinagat Islands.
• Tomorrow (31 October): Most of Cordillera Administrative Region, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Northern Samar and most of Western Visayas.
• Friday (1 November): Batanes, and Babuyan Islands
Coastal Inundation
Within the next 48 hours, there is a moderate to high risk of life-threatening coastal flooding due to storm surge with peak heights exceeding 3.0 m above normal tide levels over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Batanes and Babuyan Islands. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 6 issued at 2:00 PM today for the details.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the seaboard of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon. Refer to Gale Warning No. 5 issued at 5:00 PM today for the details.
24-Hour Sea Condition Forecast
Up to very rough, high, or very high seas:
• Up to 14.0 m: The seaboard of Batanes
• Up to 10.0 m: The seaboard of Babuyan Islands
• Up to 8.0 m: The seaboard of northeastern mainland Cagayan
• Up to 6.0 m: The seaboard of Isabela; the remaining seaboard of mainland Cagayan
• Up to 5.0 m: The northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte
• Up to 4.5 m: The seaboard of northern Aurora; the remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte
• Sea travel is risky all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas:
• Up to 4.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands, the seaboards of Ilocos Sur and Camarines Norte; the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; the northern seaboards of Catanduanes
• Up to 3.5 m: The seaboard of Ilocos Sur; the remaining seaboard of Aurora.
• Up to 3.0 m: The eastern seaboards of mainland Quezon, Catanduanes, Albay, and Sorsogon; the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar; the remaining seaboards of Ilocos Region; the western seaboard of Zambales; the seaboard of Kalayaan Islands
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas:
• Up to 2.5 m: The western seaboards of Bataan, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, northern mainland Palawan, and Calamian Islands; the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar.
• Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboards of Luzon, the seaboards of Aklan and Capiz; the eastern seaboard of Dinagat Islands.
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• LEON is forecast to move northwestward over the Philippine Sea until it makes landfall along the eastern coast of Taiwan tomorrow (31 October) afternoon. After crossing the landmass of Taiwan, LEON will then turn north northwestward to northeastward over the Taiwan Strait towards the East China Sea and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow evening or Friday early morning (1 November). A second landfall over mainland China is not ruled out during this period.
• LEON will be closest to Batanes from late evening today to tomorrow morning. A landfall in Batanes is also not ruled out.
• This super typhoon will be near or at peak intensity during its closest point of approach to Batanes. The landfall of LEON over Taiwan will result in a continuous weakening trend for the rest of the forecast period.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 8:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
