15/10/2022
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 11 ☔
Tropical Storm NENENG (NESAT)
Issued at 11:00 PM, 15 October 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 2:00 AM tomorrow
“NENENG” MAINTAINS STRENGTH AS IT THREATENS THE BATANES-BABUYAN ISLANDS AREA
Location of Center (10:00 PM): The center of Tropical Storm “NENENG” was estimated based on all available data at 140 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan or 145 km East Southeast of Calayan, Cagayan (19.0°N, 122.8°E)
Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 90 km/h, and central pressure of 994 hPa
Present Movement: West northwestward at 20 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds: Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 320 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Luzon
Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Apayao, the northern portion of Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Lagayan), and Ilocos Norte
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Luzon
The northern and central portions of Isabela (Santa Maria, San Pablo, Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan, Ilagan City, Tumauini, Cabagan, Santo Tomas, Quezon, Delfin Albano, Mallig, Quirino, Gamu, Roxas, San Mariano, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Burgos, Reina Mercedes, San Manuel, Aurora, Luna, Cabatuan, San Mateo, Dinapigue, City of Cauayan), Kalinga, the rest of Abra, Mountain Province, the northern portion of Ifugao (Aguinaldo, Alfonso Lista, Mayoyao, Hungduan, Banaue), and the northern and central portions of Ilocos Sur (Sinait, Cabugao, San Juan, Magsingal, Santo Domingo, San Ildefonso, San Vicente, Santa Catalina, Bantay, City of Vigan, Santa, Caoayan, Narvacan, Nagbukel, Santa Maria, San Esteban, Santiago, Burgos, Banayoyo, Lidlidda, San Emilio, Quirino, Gregorio del Pilar, Galimuyod, City of Candon, Santa Lucia, Salcedo, Cervantes, Suyo, Sigay, Santa Cruz)
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
• Until tomorrow morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains are likely over Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains are likely over the northern portion of Ilocos Sur, Abra, Kalinga, Mt. Province, and the northern portion of Isabela. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains are possible over the rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, Isabela, and Ilocos Sur.
• Rest of tomorrow: Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains likely over Ilocos Norte, the northern portion of Ilocos Sur, and Abra. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, and the rest of Ilocos Sur.
• Under these conditions, scattered flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.
• The trough of NENENG and the convergence of its circulation with the southwesterly winds induced by the tropical storm may also bring occasional rains over the western portions of Visayas and MIMAROPA and the northern and western portions of Mindanao. A Weather Advisory may be issued should the potential for flooding rains further increase.
Severe Winds
• During the passage of NENENG, winds may reach gale-force in strength within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted. Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) will be experienced within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 1 is currently in effect.
• Per latest track and intensity forecast, there remains a possibility that the highest wind signal that will be hoisted throughout the passage is Wind Signal No. 3 (for storm-force winds).
• The induced southwesterly winds may bring occasional gusts reaching strong breeze to near gale strength over most of Southern Luzon and Visayas and the eastern portions of Central Luzon, especially in coastal and mountainous/upland localities of these areas.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
• Under the influence of the surge of northeasterly surface wind flow, a marine gale warning remains in effect over the seaboards of Northern Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #13 issued at 5:00 PM today.
• The aforementioned surge and the approaching tropical cyclone may also bring moderate to rough seas (2.0 to 3.5 m) over the eastern and western seaboards of Central Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon. These conditions may be risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• On the forecast track, Tropical Storm NENENG will continue moving westward or west northwestward over the Luzon Strait tonight through Monday morning and may pass very close or make landfall in the vicinity of Babuyan Islands or Batanes between this late evening or tomorrow morning. The storm is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening or Monday morning, when it is expected to begin turning generally west southwestward over the West Philippine Sea.
• NENENG may reach severe tropical storm (STS) category within 24 hours following its passage over the Luzon Strait, although the possibility of intensification into STS during the passage near or over the Batanes-Babuyan Islands area is not ruled out. Further intensification into a typhoon is likely by Monday.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 2:00 AM tomorrow.
DOST-PAGASA
https://bit.ly/3RQj55J
