Phil tigers

28/08/2023

Typhoon "Goring"
Issued at 05:00 am, 28 August 2023
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 5:00 PM today)

GORING WEAKENS INTO A TYPHOON AS IT CONTINUES ITS COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
Forecast accumulated rainfall for today.
50-100 mm: The northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan
Forecast accumulated rainfall for tomorrow
50-100 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northern portions of mainland Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte
Forecast accumulated rainfall for Wednesday
Greater than 200 mm: Batanes
100-200 mm: Babuyan Islands
50-100 mm: The northern portions of mainland Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are still expected especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by GORING will bring occasional or monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas over the next three days. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #7 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 PM yesterday and 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook at 4:00 AM today.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
Due to the increased wind radii in the southern half of the typhoon circulation, Wind Signal No.1 has been hoisted for some areas in Bicol Region. Higher wind signals may still be hoisted over Extreme Northern Luzon and the northern or northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan later today or tomorrow. Hoisting of Wind Signal No. 3 or 4 over the Batanes-Babuyan Islands area is not ruled out.
The enhanced Southwest Monsoon will continue to bring gusty conditions over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
Today: Aurora, Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, and most of Zamboanga Peninsula.
Tomorrow: Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, and most of Zamboanga Peninsula.
Wednesday: Aurora, Bataan, Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and most of Visayas.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon, the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, the seaboards of Southern Luzon, and the western seaboard of Visayas. Disruption in civilian maritime activities is expected over these areas (e.g., suspension of sea travel) due to hazardous sea condition. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #7 issued at 5:00 AM today.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
GORING is forecast to turn generally northeastward and northward today, then generally northwestward tomorrow towards the Bashi Channel and the vicinity of Batanes. On the forecast track, the typhoon will make a close approach (a landfall scenario is not ruled out) to Batanes between Wednesday morning and evening and to the southern portion of Taiwan between Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. Afterwards, it will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning or afternoon and cross the Taiwan Strait before making landfall over southeastern China on Friday evening or on Saturday early morning.
GORING is forecast to slightly weaken further in the next 12 hours due to upwelling of cooler ocean waters and onset of dry air intrusion before re-intensifying as it turns northwestward. It may be upgraded again to super typhoon category by mid tomorrow. GORING may pass close to Batanes at or near its peak intensity. Interaction with the rugged terrain of Taiwan during its close approach will result to a weakening trend beginning on late Wednesday.

Location of Eye/center
The center of the eye of Typhoon GORING was estimated based on all available data, including those from Baler and Daet Weather Radars, 210 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.3 °N, 124.1 °E )

Movement
Moving East Southeastward

Strength
Maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 215 km/h

Forecast Position
Aug 28, 2023 02:00 PM - 275 km East Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Aug 29, 2023 02:00 AM - 315 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Aug 29, 2023 02:00 PM - 300 km East of Calayan, Cagayan
Aug 30, 2023 02:00 AM - 110 km East Southeast of Basco, Batanes
Aug 30, 2023 02:00 PM - Over the coastal waters of Itbayat, Batanes
Aug 31, 2023 02:00 AM - 155 km Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes
Sep 01, 2023 02:00 AM - 420 km West Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)
Sep 02, 2023 02:00 AM - 680 km West Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes or in the vicinity of Guangdong, China (OUTSIDE PAR)
Wind Signal (Areas with TCWS)
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
AFFECTED AREAS
Luzon
Batanes, Babuyan Islands, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan (Camalaniugan, Pamplona, Gonzaga, Santa Teresita, Baggao, Buguey, Santa Ana, Claveria, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Allacapan, Lal-Lo, Lasam, Peñablanca, Iguig, Amulung, Gattaran, Alcala), the eastern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue, San Mariano, San Guillermo, Ilagan City, Tumauini, San Pablo, Cabagan, Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan), the northern and central portions of Aurora (Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dilasag, Baler, Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, San Luis), Polillo Islands, the northern and eastern portions of Camarines Norte (Capalonga, Jose Panganiban, Paracale, Vinzons, Talisay, Daet, Mercedes) including Calaguas Islands, the northeastern portion of Camarines Sur (Siruma, Tinambac, Lagonoy, Garchitorena, Caramoan), and the northern portion of Catanduanes (Panganiban, Caramoran, Viga, Bagamanoc, Pandan)

28/07/2023

26/07/2023

Typhoon "Egay"
Issued at 08:00 am, 26 July 2023
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 11:00 AM today)

TYPHOON EGAY WOBBLES OVER THE WATERS NEAR FUGA ISLAND
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall for today
· Above 200 mm: The northwestern portion of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the northern portion of Apayao, Abra, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur
· 100-200 mm: Batanes, the northeastern and central portions of Cagayan, the rest of Apayao, the western portion of Kalinga, the western portion of Mountain Province, Benguet, and La Union
· 50-100 mm: The rest of Cagayan, the rest of Kalinga, the rest of Mountain Province, the western portion of Ifugao, the western portion of Nueva Vizcaya, Pangasinan, and Zambales.
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are highly likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by EGAY will continue to bring occasional to monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas in the next three days. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #7 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 PM yesterday and the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook at 4:00 AM today.
Severe Winds
Violent, life-threatening conditions are expected to continue over Babuyan Islands, the northwestern portion of mainland Cagayan, and the northern portions of Apayao and Ilocos Norte in the next 6 hours.
Significant to severe impacts from typhoon-force winds may be experienced within the areas under Wind Signal No. 4. Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds may be experienced within the areas under Wind Signal No. 3. Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 is in effect. Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.1 is hoisted.
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
EGAY and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon will continue to bring gusty conditions over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
· Today: Luzon and Visayas
· Tomorrow: Luzon and Western Visayas
Friday: Batanes, Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, the southern portion of Quezon, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Western Visayas
Coastal Inundation
There is a high risk of storm surge which may cause flooding in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, and portions of Isabela and Ilocos Sur. Maximum surge heights may exceed 3.0 m in most of the warning areas. For more information refer to Storm Surge Warning #9 issued at 2:00 AM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of EGAY and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon, a Gale Warning is in effect over several coastal waters along the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas.
Rough to high or very high seas: Sea travel is risky for most vessels. All mariners are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor until winds and waves subside.
Rough to very rough seas: Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts. For larger vessels, operating in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. Mariners without proper experience or operating ill-equipped vessels are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor.
For more information, refer to Gale Warning #7 issued at 5:00 AM today.
In the next 24 hours, EGAY will also bring moderate to rough seas (2.0 to 3.0 m) over the coastal waters outside the Gale Warning area along the seaboards of Visayas and the northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing over these waters. If inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
· In the next 6 hours, EGAY may exhibit trochoidal or wobbling motion while in the vicinity of the Babuyan Islands. As such, a landfall over northwestern Cagayan is not ruled out. Afterwards, EGAY will turn generally northwestward or north northwestward and pass over the waters south and southwest of Taiwan. It is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow morning. Outside the PAR region, EGAY will cross the Taiwan Strait and make landfall in the vicinity of Fujian, China on Friday morning.
EGAY is forecast to weaken throughout the forecast period, although the rate of weakening will not be rapid due to slightly favorable environment offsetting the impact of land interaction with the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon and Taiwan. A more rapid weakening is expected once EGAY makes landfall and moves inland over mainland China, with the tropical cyclone degenerating into a remnant low by Saturday.

Location of Eye/center
The center of the eye of Typhoon EGAY was estimated based on all available data over the coastal waters of Aparri (Fuga Is.), Cagayan (18.7 °N, 121.4 °E )

Movement
Moving West Southwestward at 15 km/h

Strength
Maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 240 km/h

Forecast Position
Jul 26, 2023 05:00 PM - 185 km West Southwest of Basco, Batanes
Jul 27, 2023 05:00 AM - 260 km West of Itbayat, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)
Jul 27, 2023 05:00 PM - 410 km West Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)
Jul 28, 2023 05:00 AM - 640 km Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes or in the vicinity of Fujian, China (OUTSIDE PAR)
Jul 28, 2023 05:00 PM - 890 km Northwest of Extreme Northern Luzon or in the vicinity of Jiangxi, China (OUTSIDE PAR)
Jul 29, 2023 05:00 AM - 1,150 km North Northwest of Extreme Northern Luzon or in the vicinity of Jiangxi, China (OUTSIDE PAR)
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 4
AFFECTED AREAS
Luzon
The northern portion of Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Claveria, Sanchez-Mira, Pamplona, Abulug, Ballesteros, Aparri, Buguey, Santa Teresita, Camalaniugan, Santa Praxedes) including Babuyan Islands, the northern portion of Apayao (Calanasan, Luna, Santa Marcela), and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Burgos, Bangui, Dumalneg, Pagudpud, Adams, Pasuquin, Vintar, Bacarra)
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 3
AFFECTED AREAS
Luzon
Batanes, the rest of Cagayan, the rest of Apayao, the northern portion of Kalinga (Rizal, Pinukpuk, Balbalan), the northern portion of Abra (Tineg, Lagayan, Lacub, Danglas, Bangued, La Paz, San Juan, Dolores, Tayum, Lagangilang, Malibcong, Licuan-Baay, Peñarrubia, Pidigan, Langiden, San Quintin, Bucay, San Isidro, Sallapadan), the rest of Ilocos Norte, and the northern portion of Ilocos Sur (Magsingal, San Juan, Cabugao, Sinait, San Vicente, Santo Domingo, San Ildefonso, Bantay, Santa Catalina, City of Vigan, Caoayan, Santa, Nagbukel, Narvacan)
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 2
AFFECTED AREAS
Luzon
Isabela, the rest of Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, the rest of Abra, the rest of Ilocos Sur, La Union, and the northern and western portions of Pangasinan (Sison, San Jacinto, Pozorrubio, San Fabian, Dagupan City, Calasiao, Binmaley, Lingayen, Bugallon, Mabini, Labrador, Infanta, Dasol, Burgos, Agno, City of Alaminos, Sual, Anda, Bolinao, Bani, San Manuel, Binalonan, Laoac, Manaoag, Mangaldan, Mapandan, Santa Barbara, San Nicolas)
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 1
AFFECTED AREAS
Luzon
Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, the northern portion of Batangas (Talisay, City of Tanauan, Santo Tomas, Balete, Malvar, Lipa City), the northern and central portion of Quezon (Pitogo, Calauag, Infanta, Lopez, Guinayangan, Unisan, Plaridel, Quezon, Alabat, Padre Burgos, Mauban, General Nakar, Perez, Agdangan, Gumaca, Atimonan, Real, Tagkawayan, Lucena City, Pagbilao, Lucban, Sampaloc, City of Tayabas, Dolores, Sariaya, Candelaria, Tiaong, San Antonio) including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, the northern portion of Camarines Sur (Siruma, Tinambac, Goa, Lagonoy, Caramoan, Cabusao, Sipocot, Garchitorena, Ragay, Del Gallego, Calabanga, Presentacion, Lupi), and the northern portion of Catanduanes (Pandan, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, Viga, Caramoran)

23/07/2023

Severe Tropical Storm "Egay"
Issued at 05:00 pm, 23 July 2023
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 11:00 PM today)

EGAY FURTHER INTENSIFIES WHILE MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall today
50-100 mm: Catanduanes
Forecast accumulated rainfall tomorrow
100-200 mm: Catanduanes
50-100 mm: Cagayan, eastern section of Isabela, Polilio Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Albay
Forecast accumulated rainfall on Tuesday
>200 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan, and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte
100-200 mm: Apayao, Abra, the rest of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and the rest of Cagayan
50-100 mm: Pangasinan, Isabela, and the rest of Cordillera Administrative Region
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
In addition, EGAY may also enhance the Southwest Monsoon, bringing occasional rains over several areas of the country in the next three days. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #2 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 AM today and the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook issued at 4:00 PM today.
Severe Winds
Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds (i.e., strong breeze to near gale strength) are also possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.1 is currently in effect. Current forecast scenario shows that the highest wind signal that may be hoisted will be Wind Signal No. 3 or 4, potentially over Extreme Northern Luzon. However, should a southward shift in the track occur, higher wind signals may be hoisted.
EGAY and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon may also bring gusty conditions over the following areas especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
Today: MIMAROPA, Visayas, and the northern portions of Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, and Caraga.
Tomorrow: CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and the northern portions of Northern Mindanao and Caraga.
Tuesday: Most of Luzon and Visayas, the northern portions of Zamboanga Peninsula, and Dinagat islands
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of EGAY, a Gale Warning is in effect over several coastal waters along the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Northeastern Mindanao Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts. For larger vessels, operating in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. Mariners without proper experience or operating ill-equipped vessels are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #2 issued at 5:00 PM today.
In the next 24 hours, EGAY may also bring rough seas (2.8 to 3.5 m) over the coastal waters along the eastern seaboards of Luzon ,Visayas and Mindanao that are outside the Gale Warning area. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing over these waters. If inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
EGAY is forecast track west northwestward or westward in the next 12 hours. Afterwards, it will turn generally northwestward for the remainder of the forecast period. Although the latest track forecast shows that EGAY will remain offshore for most of the forecast period, a close approach or landfall in the vicinity of Extreme Northern Luzon is still not ruled out based on the forecast confidence cone. On the track forecast, EGAY will be closest to Extreme Northern Luzon on Wednesday and make landfall over the east coast of Taiwan on Thursday morning.
Based on current and forecast behavior of the ridge of high pressure to the north of EGAY, a “westward shift” in the track forecast remains a possibility.
EGAY is forecast to reach typhoon category within 24 hours and may become a super typhoon on Tuesday. Rapid intensification is likely within the next 72 hours due to favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions. A slight weakening trend may begin on Wednesday and will continue until EGAY makes landfall over Taiwan. Interaction with the mountainous terrain of Taiwan will result in further weakening – a trend which will continue until the tropical cyclone makes another landfall on mainland China.

Location of Eye/center
The center of Severe Tropical Storm EGAY was estimated based on all available data at 560 km East of Daet, Camarines Norte (15.0 °N, 128.1 °E )

Movement
Moving West Northwestward at 10 km/h

Strength
Maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 135 km/h

Forecast Position
Jul 24, 2023 02:00 AM - 390 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Jul 24, 2023 02:00 PM - 530 km East of Baler, Aurora
Jul 25, 2023 02:00 AM - 380 km East Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Jul 25, 2023 02:00 PM - 305 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Jul 26, 2023 02:00 AM - 185 km East of Calayan, Cagayan
Jul 26, 2023 02:00 PM - 30 km East Southeast of Itbayat, Batanes
Jul 27, 2023 02:00 PM - 415 km North Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes
Jul 28, 2023 02:00 PM - 855 km North Northwest of Extreme Northern Luzon or in the vicinity of Nanping, Fujian, China (OUTSIDE PAR)
Wind Signal (Areas with TCWS)
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
AFFECTED AREAS
Luzon
Catanduanes, eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Garchitorena, Caramoan, Presentacion), northern portion of Aurora (Casiguran, Dilasag), eastern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue, Divilacan, Maconacon, Palanan, Ilagan City, San Mariano, Tumauini, San Pablo, Cabagan) and eastern portion of Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Lal-Lo, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca)
Visayas
The northern portion of Eastern Samar (San Policarpo, Oras, Arteche, Jipapad) and the eastern portion of Northern Samar (Lapinig, Gamay, Mapanas, Palapag, Laoang, Catubig, Pambujan)

23/07/2023

Severe Tropical Storm "Egay"
Issued at 11:00 am, 23 July 2023
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 5:00 PM today)

EGAY INTENSIFIES INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING WESTWARD
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall today
50-100 mm: Catanduanes
Forecast accumulated rainfall tomorrow
100-200 mm: Catanduanes
50-100 mm: Cagayan, eastern section of Isabela, Polilio Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Albay
Forecast accumulated rainfall on Tuesday
>200 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan, and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte
100-200 mm: Apayao, Abra, the rest of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, the rest of Cagayan
50-100 mm: Pangasinan, Isabela, and the rest of Cordillera Administrative Region
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
In addition, EGAY may also enhance the Southwest Monsoon, bringing occasional rains over several areas of the country in the next three days. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #2 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 AM today and the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook issued at 4:00 AM today.
Severe Winds
In anticipation of the arrival of strong breeze to near-gale conditions directly caused by EGAY, Wind Signals may be hoisted in some areas in Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas today. Current forecast scenario shows that the highest wind signal that may be hoisted will be Wind Signal No. 3 or 4, potentially over Extreme Northern Luzon. However, should a southward shift in the track occur, higher wind signals may be hoisted.
EGAY and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon may also bring gusty conditions over the following areas especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
Today: MIMAROPA, Visayas, and the northern portions of Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, and Caraga.
Tomorrow: CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and the northern portions of Northern Mindanao and Caraga.
Tuesday: Most of Luzon and Visayas, the northern portions of Zamboanga Peninsula, and Dinagat islands
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of EGAY, a Gale Warning is in effect over several coastal waters along the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Northeastern Mindanao Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts. For larger vessels, operating in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. Mariners without proper experience or operating ill-equipped vessels are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #1 issued at 5:00 AM today.
In the next 24 hours, EGAY may also bring rough seas (2.8 to 3.5 m) over the coastal waters along the eastern seaboards of Luzon and Visayas that are outside the Gale Warning area. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing over these waters. If inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
EGAY is forecast to move slowly in the next 12 hours and accelerate west northwestward or westward until tomorrow morning. Afterwards, it will turn generally northwestward for the remainder of the forecast period. Although the latest track forecast shows that EGAY will remain offshore for most of the forecast period, a close approach or landfall in the vicinity of Extreme Northern Luzon is still not ruled out based on the forecast confidence cone. On the track forecast, EGAY will be closest to Extreme Northern Luzon on Wednesday and make landfall over the east coast of Taiwan on Thursday morning.
Based on current and forecast behavior of the ridge of high pressure to the north of EGAY, a “westward shift” in the track forecast remains a possibility.
EGAY is forecast to reach typhoon category within 24 hours and may become a super typhoon on Tuesday. Rapid intensification is likely within the next 72 hours due to favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions. A slight weakening trend may begin on Wednesday and will continue until EGAY makes landfall over Taiwan. Interaction with the mountainous terrain of Taiwan will result in further weakening – a trend which will continue until the tropical cyclone makes another landfall on mainland China.

Location of Eye/center
The center of Severe Tropical Storm EGAY was estimated based on all available data at 610 km East of Daet, Camarines Norte (14.8 °N, 128.6 °E )

Movement
Moving Westward at 15 km/h

Strength
Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h

Forecast Position
Jul 23, 2023 08:00 PM - 455 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Jul 24, 2023 08:00 AM - 600 km East of Baler, Aurora
Jul 24, 2023 08:00 PM - 465 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Jul 25, 2023 08:00 AM - 400 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Jul 25, 2023 08:00 PM - 270 km East of Calayan, Cagayan
Jul 26, 2023 08:00 AM - 60 km East Southeast of Basco, Batanes
Jul 27, 2023 08:00 AM - 270 km North Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes
Jul 28, 2023 08:00 AM - 660 km Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes or in the vicinity of Quanzhou, Fujian, China (OUTSIDE PAR)
Wind Signal
No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal

22/07/2023

Tropical Storm "Egay"
Issued at 11:00 am, 22 July 2023
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 5:00 PM today)

EGAY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall on Monday
50-100 mm: Catanduanes
In addition, EGAY may also enhance the Southwest Monsoon during the weekend and into next week:
Tomorrow: Occasional rains possible over Western Visayas
Monday: Occasional rains likely over Western Visayas, Occidental Mindoro, and the northern portion of Palawan including Calamian Islands.
A Weather Advisory may be issued for these areas in anticipation of the potential heavy rainfall.
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
Severe Winds
In anticipation of the arrival of strong breeze to near-gale conditions associated with EGAY, Wind Signals may be hoisted within the day or tomorrow in some areas in Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas.
The enhanced Southwest Monsoon may bring gusty conditions over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
Today: The western and southern portions of Visayas, the northern portions of Northern Mindanao and Caraga, Romblon, and Masbate
Tomorrow: Most of Visayas and MIMAROPA and the northern portions of Northern Mindanao and Caraga.
Monday: MIMAROPA, most of Visayas, the northern portions of Northern Mindanao and Caraga, and portions of Zamboanga Peninsula.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
On Sunday, EGAY may bring moderate to rough seas (2.0 to 3.0 m) over the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. If inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
EGAY is forecast to track generally west northwestward or westward today and tomorrow before turning northwestward for the remainder of the forecast period. The current forecast track indicates that EGAY will remain offshore over the Philippine Sea. However, the forecast confidence cone indicates that a landfall scenario over the northern portion of Northern Luzon is not ruled out at this time. Analysis of available meteorological data indicates that considerable shifts in its track forecast remain possible in succeeding bulletins.
EGAY is forecast to intensify into a severe tropical storm in the next 24 hours. Through the forecast period, this tropical cyclone will continue to steadily intensify. It may reach peak at super typhoon category on Tuesday or Wednesday while over the Philippine Sea east of Extreme Northern Luzon.

Location of Eye/center
The center of Tropical Storm EGAY was estimated based on all available data at 750 km East of Virac, Catanduanes (14.4 °N, 131.1 °E )

Movement
Moving Westward Slowly

Strength
Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h

Forecast Position
Jul 22, 2023 08:00 PM - 690 km East of Virac, Catanduanes
Jul 23, 2023 08:00 AM - 595 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Jul 23, 2023 08:00 PM - 520 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Jul 24, 2023 08:00 AM - 480 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Jul 24, 2023 08:00 PM - 670 km East of Baler, Aurora
Jul 25, 2023 08:00 AM - 570 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Jul 26, 2023 08:00 AM - 275 km East of Basco, Batanes
Jul 27, 2023 08:00 AM - 320 km North Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes or in the vicinity of Hualien County, Taiwan
Wind Signal
No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal