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Major General Edgard Arevalo AFP, Quezon City (2026)

29/06/2026

A 15 year old male in Manila threatened to stab using and later threw a busted glass bottle on a gas station’s pump attendants—bragging that he can stab anyone without danger of being jailed because he is a minor.

In Batangas City, a Grade 10 pupil, through a video post brandishing a .45 caliber pistol, threatened to stab and gun down students of Grades 7, 8, 9 and 10 who allegedly bully him—prompting Batangas Integrated High School authorities to suspend classes out of fear for the safety of their student.

These happened at the heels of that fatal school mass shooting in Tacloban City.

Age of minority pa more?

Read my OpEd piece:

ON June 22, 2026, high school students “Nash” and “Rod” — ages 14 and 15, respectively — went on a shooting rampage at San Jose National High School in Tacloban City. The incident left three students dead and 20 others injured, including three who were sent to the intensive care unit. An...

27/04/2026

Martyrs, murderers or victims of circumstances?
by Edgard A. Arevalo

CROW’S NEST
The Manila Times
March 26, 2026

WHENEVER students die during clashes between the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the New People’s Army (NPA), they get praised and the military gets ridiculed. The “innocent civilians” who died were branded as “martyrs,” “victims” and “human rights advocates” while soldiers were called “berdugo” (executioner), “murderer” or “violators of human rights.” Sweeping judgments without careful examination of the circumstances of the deaths.

On April 19, 2026, another tragic incident happened in Toboso, Negros Occidental. Nineteen NPA members lay dead after eight armed skirmishes with soldiers from the 79th Infantry Battalion. Twenty-four fi****ms were seized in that 11-hour gun battle. Reports say that among the identified fatalities were Maureen Keil Santuyo and Alyssa Alano, reportedly a faculty member and student, respectively, at University of the Philippines; Ma. Clarita Branzuel Blanco, a teacher in Tabugon, Cebu; and RJ Nichole Ledesma, a Kabataan party-list nominee in the 2022 elections. Sixteen bodies were already claimed by relatives, said Lt. Gen. Fernando Reyeg, who leads the AFP Visayas Command. Among government troops, Army Cpl. Jony Gallano sustained gunshot wounds to both arms.

The fatalities were armed when neutralized, fighting with NPA members led by commander Roger Fabillar, AFP Chief of Staff Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. said.

Scene-of-the-crime operatives — or SOCOs — from the Philippine National Police, accompanied by follow-on soldiers, immediately proceeded to the encounter sites, conducted an investigation, secured and preserved pieces of evidence, and did a “verification of the circumstances surrounding the series of clashes.”

Meanwhile, social media was swamped with posts demonizing the military over the deaths of “mere researchers, journalists, student leaders and peasant organizers and cultural workers.” Calls to investigate the clash mounted, especially because not one soldier involved died.

A NPA spokesman called the military’s report of the skirmish “a study in calculated exaggeration” and attributed to the AFP a “well-documented history of planted evidence and fabricated encounters.”

But there is a question that remains inadequately answered: why were they bearing arms; and why were they in the exact time and places of the armed confrontation? This is not the first time such an incident happened. There were many instances in the past when those who died fighting alongside NPA combatants were claimed as “innocent civilians” or “mere students engaged in an immersion program.”

This cycle of violence and exploitation by the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) and the NPA must stop!

Yes, there are social ills.

Poverty, inequality and government neglect are more felt in the countryside. Corruption is widespread.

These, too, must end.

But not by inciting the poor and marginalized to pursue change through the barrel of a gun. That is not only against the law, it also yields tragic consequences, like what happened in Negros Occidental. The state has the right to defend itself, and the military is obliged to protect its citizens.

The recruitment of young and idealistic students, out-of-school youths, and even faculty members to the NPA is masked as advocacies. A journey to social activism that begins with insidious speeches, literatures, and symposia that “expose” the ills of society. This is followed by training select recruits with the potential to lead. For these “advocates” to see for themselves and better understand the masses, they are immersed in some distant and depressed village. To do research or a study and come back with a wealth of data to process for meaningful findings and workable recommendation. But they rarely return home.

Once overcome by hatred, engulfed by a burning desire to fight for change, and emboldened by automatic rifles, they are transformed into “mandirigma,” or warriors willing and ready to die for a cause, take up arms and engage security forces to overthrow the government. That has been the CPP-NPA leaders’ playbook for the past 57 years: preying on other people’s children or siblings, never their own, to die in the mountains for a lost cause.

There were parties who insinuate foul play. They justify the presence of the students, teachers and social workers in the community — and ultimately at the clash sites — as researchers engaged in lawful pursuits. But it should be asked: was their presence in these villages coordinated by higher educational institutions (HEIs) with local government units (LGUs)? Or with the military and police in the area?

The rules of engagement are clear. Researchers or study groups are noncombatants, as long as they do not participate in actual combat. Provided they do not stay in NPA camps.

The Commission on Higher Education (CHEd) has published CHEd Memorandum Order (CMO) 63, s. 2017, that provides policies and guidelines in the conduct of “off-campus” activities that HEIs are supposed to design, approve and noted by the commission. The memo specifically directs HEIs to coordinate with the appropriate LGUs and nongovernment organizations. The CHEd also gives unto the HEIs the “duty to observe due diligence in the conduct of off-campus activity” that includes noncurricular ones, e.g., “community outreach and immersion.” Failing to do so entails the CHEd to impose sanctions “without prejudice to other liabilities under applicable laws.”

Could those off-campus activities that eventually led to last week’s tragic deaths had the CHEd’s permission? Were these activities, as designed and approved by the HEIs concerned, held with “paramount consideration given to the safety and welfare of student participants,” as mandated by the CHEd?

There should be a thorough review of the implementation of and compliance with CMO 63. The CPP-NPA’s recruitment activities in schools must be stopped.

While the death of the NPA commander and subcommander was a heavy blow to the terrorist group in Negros, it came with a heavy toll: the lives of those who died for a losing cause.

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WHENEVER students die during clashes between the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the New People’s Army (NPA), they get praised and the military gets ridiculed. The “innocent civilians” who died were branded as “martyrs,” “victims” and “human rights advocates” while soldie...

17/04/2026

All for oil
By Edgard Arevalo

CROW’S NEST
The Manila Times
April 5, 2026

THE war in the Middle East is now on its second month, and there is no clear end in sight. No clear concept of a victory, no apparent exit plan.

The United States and Israel grossly miscalculated Iran’s capability and resilience when they tried to subdue Tehran in a war they want to finish rapidly. They employed their formidable triangle of military power: missile system in the narrow tip first; air power, second; and naval power, third. The “cheapest” capability — boots on the ground — will be last.

Washington said it wanted to effect regime change in Tehran and tear down its nuclear arms capability that threatens American security from afar. The US succeeded in killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with key military leaders, but failed to achieve its declared political objective. The Feb. 28 attack only triggered a costly war that continues to drain the US economy, reduce its military power, and lose its central leadership role in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Iran fought back, employing asymmetric warfare with the knowledge it cannot defeat the US, plane for plane. It engaged the aggressors, deploying drones that reportedly cost between $20,000 and $50,000 against multimillion-dollar F-35 fighter jets, state-of-the-art aircraft carriers, and cruise missiles.

Iran also used its most potent advantage that negatively impacted the economies of not just the US and its allies, but the entire world: control of the Strait of Hormuz. Its effective closure of this vital waterway, where approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil requirements transit daily, applied enormous pressure on the US and its NATO allies.

Nations heavily dependent on crude oil from the Middle East had to endure the acute supply shortage and price hike on petroleum products. They were forced to release their strategic oil reserves only for their citizens, cut down on consumption, and reduce the number of work and school days. Countries that rely largely on imported fuel had to bear the fuel price spikes or resort to rationing what they have obtained from nontraditional sources.

The Philippines is no exception.

We already know our need for energy security and fuel sufficiency since Adam’s time. We knew many years ago that we needed to shift from heavy dependence on fossil fuel to cleaner and more sustainable renewable energy. But our leaders did not take serious action on this. To this very day, our elected officials are preoccupied with their political squabbles and the preservation of their own selfish interests.

Various studies suggest that we have over 5 billion barrels of oil and over 55 trillion cubic feet of natural gas sitting in our exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the West Philippine Sea. Based on our 2024 oil consumption rate of roughly 184.5 million barrels per year, the oil deposits can meet our needs for up to 27 years, and the natural gas deposits for more than three decades. But that is like counting the chicks even before the hen is found. The challenge here is the huge capital and infrastructure needed for their exploration, development and utilization.

Incapable

We have resigned to the fact the government is incapable of a unilateral fuel and energy sufficiency program, that we need to partner with firms capable of providing financial investment and equipment.

We chose to partner with China at a time when diplomatic tensions have not yet reached today’s level. In 1998, we signed a memorandum of agreement with Beijing to conduct a joint exploration of oil and gas reserves. It failed. Toward the end of his term in June 2022, former president Rodrigo Duterte stopped all exploration talks with China on issues of sovereignty and constitutionality.

The same fate befell the 2005 tripartite agreement for Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking among Philippine, Chinese and Vietnamese firms. The Supreme Court struck down the agreement for being contrary to the provisions of Article XII, Section 2 of the 1987 Constitution.

With the economic downtrend caused by the war in the Middle East, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. found renewed impetus to broker a deal with China. He entertains the thought of a “reset” in the talks for joint oil and gas exploration in the West Philippine Sea. But unless the reset will be with China recognizing our ownership of the deposits found in our EEZ or amendments to the relevant provisions of our supreme law, forget it! This revival of talks is dead even before we restart it.

Under the circumstances, however, we are unlikely to achieve our aspiration with Beijing as a partner. Not only because this neighbor has been treating us shabbily, but also because our fundamental law requires that it cannot be a firm more than 40-percent owned by China. Other interested companies may be unwilling to invest because the risks Beijing poses on their would-be financial investments and costly infrastructure are way too high to be ignored.

Is this option, therefore, of reopening discussions of joint exploration with China, which President Marcos and his sister Sen. Imee Marcos had a rare agreement on, worth retrying? The ink on the newspapers reporting this plan has not even dried yet when retired Supreme Court Associate Justice Antonio Carpio hogged the headlines. He revealed that China declared on its website that it owns any yield from resource explorations in the South China Sea.

Such a sad fate. Will the exploration, development and utilization of our oil and gas resources — which would bring energy and fuel security, job opportunities, and more government revenues for Filipinos — continue to be an elusive dream? Do we stand a better chance if we can have a “good negotiator” to broker a mutually beneficial deal with China?

Given our vital national interest in local petroleum supply sufficiency and energy security, the hard question worth asking is: do we need a shift in our foreign policy following the perceived emerging change in the geopolitical landscape, owing to the war in the Middle East or an amendment to our Constitution?

Both options are hard to do.

Postscript

This author is immensely grateful to its many readers and followers, as this column reaches another milestone.

Today, Easter Sunday, Crow’s Nest marks its fourth year in the trusted opinion pages of the oldest existing English-language newspaper in the Philippines: The Manila Times.

Thank you for your valued comments, feedback and encouragements. These keep his energy steady and the insights flowing.

[email protected]

THE war in the Middle East is now on its second month, and there is no clear end in sight. No clear concept of a victory, no apparent exit plan.

27/03/2026

*Who wants to be President?*
by Edgard A. Arevalo

*CROW’S NEST*
The Manila Times
March 22, 2026

FRANKLY, it is not easy to be president.

No one would want to bear the burden that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. carries, especially nowadays. Seeing him on television lately, one can tell how heavy the load he bears. His physical appearance betrays how he is coping with the demands his exalted position requires. He struggles to steer our nation, already experiencing economic stagnation, amid the impact of the global oil crisis caused by the ongoing war in the Middle East.

On top of these, the Marcos administration has political instability, issues of graft and corruption, and dwindling public trust to contend with. With our people reeling from the effects of the fuel crisis and the obvious lack of clear directions on how the government would address it, public approval is expected to plummet further. And the urgent demand from our government leaders today is to immediately cushion the impact of the uncontrollable increases in fuel prices.

President Marcos faces a serious dilemma: to suspend the imposition of the excise tax on fuel — which translates immediately to a P10-per-liter discount for gasoline, P6 for diesel and P5 for kerosene, and P3 per kilo of liquefied petroleum gas — or not. Suspending the collection of the tax means losing billions of pesos or more, depending on the prevailing prices. But ignoring the public clamor will lead to further public indignation over the government’s perceived indifference to their suffering. They find it unacceptable that the government does not want to lose P136 billion for suspending the collection from May to December while P1.08 trillion in flood-control funds were lost to corrupt government officials, according to Greenpeace Philippines estimates.

Caught between “two evils,” the president has to make a choice.

After he certified as urgent House Bill 8418, which would give him emergency powers to cut or suspend the collection of the excise tax on petroleum products.

After bidding the Senate to pass its counterpart version forthwith, albeit containing provisions that do not conform with the House of Representatives’ version.

After the House adopted the Senate’s incongruent provisions to skip the bicameral conference committee and abbreviate the proceedings for this critically important piece of legislation.

And after this rare display of legislative teamwork, the chief executive backpedaled. He said on March 18 that he was not inclined; he was not in a rush to use the emergency powers he had sought Congress to grant him.

We hope the public can follow the wisdom of the president’s advisers, which he heeded. They say removing that excise tax would benefit not only the poor, but also the rich. But how many in our society are rich and how many are poor? There no longer exists a rich-or-poor dichotomy. The middle class and its three subcategories — lower middle, middle-middle and upper middle — are not “rich.” Yet they, together with the rich, bear the burden of contributing to the fund to provide “ayuda,” or dole-outs, for the poor. And abandoning the measure because it would also benefit the rich is an injustice to the middle class that has long been contributing to this ayuda.

*Palliative, location-based solutions*

The Land Transportation, Franchising and Regulatory Board has finally approved the P1 fare increase for traditional jeepneys and P2 for modern ones. But a day before it was supposed to take effect, Marcos suspended its implementation. This one-step-forward-two-steps-back solution caused more jeepney drivers and operators to protest.

To lessen the burden on commuters in the National Capital Region (NCR), a 50-percent discount on Metro Rail Transit 3 and Light Rail Transit 2 rides was announced. There will also be “Libreng Sakay,” or free public rides, in various locations in Metro Manila. But those living outside the region — the rest of Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao — ask rhetorically: “What about us, ‘imperial Manila’? Are we less Filipinos?”

There is no clear ending to the war in the Middle East, as the United States’ allies declined President Donald Trump’s call for support to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Japan, Australia, South Korea, France, and Spain emphatically said no to being involved in the conflict. The Philippines said, “No, we do not have the capability.” Meanwhile, the government is poised to continue providing ayuda that one jeepney driver has called “suhol,” or bribe.

This ambivalence and the decisions made today and altered tomorrow are knee-jerk reactions. When the measures adopted are meant to address the symptoms, rather than the disease, this is expected because, in a volatile situation where variables are evolving and unpredictable, a “solution” today may no longer apply tomorrow.

*Unheeded lessons*

But unlike what the world experienced with the Covid-19 pandemic, especially in its early phase, when the world was groping for ways to combat the coronavirus, we should have been better prepared to face the current crisis.

We had several “rehearsals” on fuel crises, the most recent of which was the oil-supply disruption after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. And yet, we have not learned to value its lessons. To use the war in the Middle East is unexpected and not of our own making, as an excuse for being caught with our proverbial pants down is unacceptable. It cannot substitute for the lack of foresight or preparations for things about to come.

But our current situation is different. We all know how critical energy security is, as it drives a nation’s economy. A steady supply of petroleum is critical for nations like ours that depend heavily on imported crude oil or its finished product. Despite the knowledge and experience, we have not stored enough fuel in reserve.

As I said in the beginning, we would not want to be in the position of the president. He has to find sources of fuel to replenish the thin reserves we have that can only last until the middle of April. After finding nations that are willing to sell, it will be at a steep price, given the high demand and low supply. And we stand to pay more after our peso reached the historic low of P60.15 to the US dollar.

But President Marcos has to make difficult decisions. He has to set clear directions for the government in the coming weeks and beyond on how to navigate the country’s need for fuel sufficiency.

The measures required must yield results for both the near and long term.

A thorough review is in order to assess whether the Oil Deregulation Law must be amended to conform to contemporary realities and serve the purpose for which it was passed. And if it does not, to repeal the law if it failed to prevent the apparent price cartel. Besides, this law passed on to private oil companies the responsibility of maintaining a 15- to 30-day inventory of petroleum products.

Congress has to hasten the passage of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Act that envisions to create a state-managed emergency stockpile of oil for 90 to 180 days.

Meanwhile, the Department of Energy has initiated a government-to-government purchases of fuel to help private firms import the commodity.

For now, all of us must do our share as Filipinos to help the government and each other cope in this critical period.

[email protected]

FRANKLY, it is not easy to be president.

17/02/2026

It is encouraging to hear (China’s Ambassador to the Philippines) Jing inviting his Filipino counterparts to a dialogue. That Beijing desires to preserve the relationship it has established with Manila “for a long, long time.” That his country does not want to resort to force.

“Very comforting, except that it rings hollow. Even the framing reveals the reality about how they expect us — a “smaller neighbor” it can “easily win [in] a confrontation” — to behave. And well, the likely outcome of a dialogue between China and the Philippines.”

When hoping against hope is the most viable option
By Edgard A. Arevalo

*CROW’S NEST*
The Manila Times

THE heated diplomatic spat between Philippine government officials and those of the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Manila continues to rage, and there appears to be no letup as of yet.

28/11/2025

Insulating the military

CROW’S NEST
By Edgard A. Arevalo

The Manila Times
November 23, 2025

PERSISTENT public calls for transparency in investigations on the corruption of public funds for flood control projects are resonating loudly. The frustration over these is not just due to the apparent lackadaisical filing of cases by the Ombudsman, until recently. The clamor is to see that government officials and private individuals who conspired with one another and caused the suffering and loss of lives of many Filipinos are charged before the Sandiganbayan. People want the offenders jailed, their cases speedily disposed, and the steepest penalties for plunder and other crimes imposed on them.

Adding fuel to the fire of reinvigorated public furor over corruption is the revelation of former Ako Bicol Party-list representative Elizalde “Zaldy” Co that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. himself ordered the insertion of P100 billion in the 2025 national budget. He claimed it was consummated through the representations made by resigned Budget secretary Amenah Pangandaman and former Presidential Legislative Liaison Office undersecretary Adrian Bersamin, and the acquiescence of former speaker Martin Romualdez. And failing to induce the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) into withdrawing support from its commander-in-chief for this fresh imputation of a crime, video recordings of cellular phone conversations between and among AFP generals, Co, and Romualdez resurfaced.

Context

The video recording being recirculated was between Co and Lt. Gen. Facundo Palafox IV, retired commanding general of the Southern Luzon Command, and another video clip of a conversation between AFP Chief of Staff Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr., on the one hand, and Co and Romualdez on the other.
In both recordings, the generals were expressing their profound gratitude on behalf of the men and women under them for the increase in their daily subsistence, or meal allowance.

The increase was substantial and would surely enhance the morale of AFP personnel. From P150 a day in 2015 (from P60/day), it was raised to P350 starting Jan. 1, 2025. It was expected — and out of courtesy — that Brawner and Palafox thanked these lawmakers who made good on their commitment in allocating funds therefor in the bicameral conference committee.

The video clips were maliciously presented to undermine the integrity and erode the credibility of the military. It seeks to portray the AFP as an institution that “can be bought,” as netizens — probably including trolls — suggest in their comments. It suggests that the AFP’s professionalism has been compromised by the conduct of two of its high-ranking commanders. And maintaining support to the president and the political leadership is to return the favor the AFP received.

Susceptibility to political influence

I seriously doubt if both generals consented to the video recording, much less to the posting and circulation of the clips on social media. But the agenda of these politicians in flaunting their “support for the AFP, which is their top priority,” seeking credit for it and making sure the military leadership recognizes it is clear and unmistakable. And the AFP fell prey to this political grandstanding.

To be frank about it, soldiers’ daily food allowance is an entitlement as part of their compensation. A raise is long overdue; the last increase was made 10 years ago. But if these politicians are truly concerned with the well-being of the defenders of the republic and their families, they can pass laws relevant to their welfare without fanfare. For instance, a significant implementation of the Salary Standardization Law for Military Uniformed Personnel, which was passed by the late president Benigno Aquino III in 2016, was continued and funded by his successor Rodrigo Duterte without much pomp. As a matter of fact, if they genuinely care, increases can actually be made an integral part of the law, with specified increments of increase annually. But this case of Romualdez and Co is a classic strategy of traditional politicians capitalizing on withholding or granting favors to create “utang na loob,” or debt of gratitude.

Under the circumstances, the AFP becomes susceptible to political influence. For instance, senior members of the military, from the rank of naval captain or colonel and above, require confirmation by the Commission on Appointments before their promotion to these ranks can be permanent.

Members of the AFP depend on lawmakers to enact laws for the much-needed rationalization and harmonization of salaries and benefits between the AFP and the Philippine National Police, where there is disparity in ranks and necessarily create inequitable computation of pay and allowances.

Soldiers, who are sure to retire in the future, look up to legislators to pass laws relating to the retirement pension and indexation. When politicians were allowed to dip their dirty fingers in the promotion and designation of senior officers to key positions in the AFP, they promote political patronage and demoralization, and defeat meritocracy and professionalism.

Insulating the AFP from political exploitation

The military is, by nature, amiable and friendly, and is expected to promote good civil-military and community relations. But the way to insulate itself from advances is to shy away from engaging with politicians to the extent that its high-ranking officers develop undue familiarity that breeds contempt. It should be mindful of ingratiation techniques and exercise restraint in accepting gifts or favors from shrewd politicians, as it is likely quid pro quo.

The AFP has the Department of National Defense (DND) to lobby with other government agencies to advance organizational interest. It should strengthen and capacitate its Legislative Liaison Office in Congress to facilitate the AFP’s concern either on its own or through the intercession and assistance of the DND.

Organizations of retired military and uniformed personnel can organize themselves and help develop well-meaning lobby groups to cater to the interest of the AFP, but never the military organization itself.

The people look up to the military as a professional, reliable and dependable institution. A series of past surveys consistently indicate high levels of satisfaction and trust in the organization.

The AFP has an enviable status as the bulwark of stability, especially at this time of national political crisis. It is seen as the gel that holds the government intact, such that, to effect change in the national political landscape, they have to convince the AFP to intervene, but would not. It is to the credit of the military that it remained nonpartisan. But it should endeavor to insulate itself and get all the support it needs to stay away from partisan politics, both for national and institutional benefit.

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PERSISTENT public calls for transparency in investigations on the corruption of public funds for flood control projects are resonating loudly. The frustration over these is not just due to the apparent lackadaisical filing of cases by the Ombudsman, until recently. The clamor is to see that governme...

Major General Edgard Arevalo AFP

29/06/2026

27/04/2026

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