24/10/2024
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 18
Severe Tropical Storm (TRAMI)
Issued at 8:00 AM, 24 October 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
“KRISTINE” IS NOW OVER CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION.
Location of Center (7:00 AM):
The center of Severe Tropical Storm KRISTINE was estimated based on all available data in the vicinity of Aguinaldo, Ifugao (17.0°N, 121.3°E)
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 160 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa
Present Movement:
Westward at 20 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 730 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No.3
Wind threat: Storm-force winds
Luzon:
The southern portion of Cagayan (Peñablanca, Tuguegarao City, Enrile, Solana, Iguig, Tuao), Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, the southern portion of Abra (Malibcong, Licuan-Baay, Sallapadan, Daguioman, Bucloc, Boliney, Tubo, Luba, Manabo, Bucay, Villaviciosa, Pilar, San Isidro, Peñarrubia), Benguet, the northern and central portions of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, Baler), the northern portion of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Lupao, San Jose City, Pantabangan, Guimba, Santo Domingo, Talavera, Llanera, Rizal, Bongabon, Talugtug, Science City of Muñoz, Cuyapo, Nampicuan), the northern portion of Tarlac (Mayantoc, San Clemente, Camiling, Santa Ignacia, Gerona, Paniqui, Moncada, San Manuel, Anao, Ramos, Pura, Victoria), the northern portion of Zambales (Candelaria, Santa Cruz, Masinloc), Pangasinan, La Union, and the central and southern portions of Ilocos Sur (Cervantes, Quirino, Sigay, Suyo, Alilem, Sugpon, Tagudin, Santa Cruz, Salcedo, Gregorio del Pilar, San Emilio, Lidlidda, Burgos, San Esteban, Santiago, Banayoyo, Galimuyod, City of Candon, Santa Lucia, Nagbukel, Santa Maria, Narvacan)
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
TCWS No.2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Luzon:
Ilocos Norte, the rest of Ilocos Sur, Apayao, the rest of Abra, the rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the rest of Aurora, the rest of Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, the rest of Tarlac, Pampanga, the rest of Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Batangas, the northern and central portions of Quezon (Lucena City, Pagbilao, Infanta, Tiaong, San Antonio, Candelaria, Lucban, Sampaloc, Sariaya, City of Tayabas, Mauban, Dolores, General Nakar, Real) including Polillo Islands, and Lubang Island
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
TCWS No.1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Luzon:
Batanes, the rest of Quezon, the rest of Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, the northern portion of mainland Palawan (El Nido, Taytay, Araceli, San Vicente, Dumaran, Roxas) including Calamian Islands and Cuyo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands
Visayas:
Aklan, Capiz, Antique including Caluya Islands, Iloilo, Bantayan Islands, Northern Samar, the northern portion of Samar (Calbayog City, Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An, San Jorge, Matuguinao, Jiabong, Pagsanghan, City of Catbalogan, Gandara, Motiong, San Jose de Buan, Santa Margarita, Tarangnan, Daram, Zumarraga), Biliran, the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Maslog, Jipapad, Arteche, Oras, San Policarpo), and the northwestern portion of Leyte (Calubian, San Isidro)
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 19 issued at 8:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to “KRISTINE”.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of KRISTINE and the Northeasterly Windflow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today (24 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Zamboanga del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Northern Mindanao, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Davao del Sur, and Davao Oriental.
• Tomorrow (25 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, Siquijor, Bohol, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Camiguin, and Dinagat Islands
• Saturday (26 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, Siquijor, Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Dinagat Islands, Siargao and Bucas Grande Island Group.
Coastal Inundation
There is a minimal to moderate risk of life-threatening storm surge up to 2.0 m above normal tide levels in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and Zambales. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 9 issued at 8:00 AM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 8 issued at 5:00 AM today.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
• Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:
o Up to 8.0 m: The seaboards of Ilocos Region, and Zambales; the western seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands.
o Up to 7.0 m: The western seaboard of Bataan; the remaining seaboard of Cagayan Valley.
o Up to 6.0 m: The western seaboards of Batangas; the seaboard of Lubang Island.
o Up to 5.5 m: The western seaboards of Occidental Mindoro and Calamian Islands.
o Up to 4.5 m: The seaboards of Aurora; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; the western seaboard of Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, and mainland Palawan.
o Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
• Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
o Up to 4.0 m: The seaboards of Cuyo Islands, Polillo Islands, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, and Camarines Norte; the western seaboards of Quezon and Negros Oriental
o Up to 3.5 m: The remaining seaboards of Luzon and Visayas.
o Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards of Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, and Zamboanga del Norte; the northern and western seaboards of Surigao del Norte.
o Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
• Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
o Up to 2.5 m: The remaining seaboards of Mindanao.
o Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• KRISTINE is forecast to cross Northern Luzon over the next 12 hours and may emerge over the waters west of Ilocos Region this afternoon. KRISTINE will then move west northwestward over the West Philippine Sea and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) region tomorrow (25 October) afternoon.
• KRISTINE may slightly weaken while crossing Northern Luzon due to land interaction, with downgrading into a tropical storm not ruled out. However, re-intensification may occur once the tropical cyclone moves over the West Philippine Sea.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Link: http://tinyurl.com/kristineph
