03/15/2026
🚨 RARE LEVEL 4 SEVERE WEATHER RISK ISSUED FOR MONDAY
"Share" the word! The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our region to a Level 4 “Significant Risk” for severe weather on Monday. This level of severe risk is very rare in the Mid-Atlantic, typically occurring only once or twice per decade.
A strong cold front will approach the region Monday afternoon. Forecast guidance now suggests the front may arrive a little slower than originally expected, which could allow the atmosphere to destabilize more during the afternoon after morning showers move out. If that happens, temperatures and humidity will increase, creating more atmospheric energy for storms to develop and strengthen.
⏰ Timing to Watch Monday
• After 12 PM: Scattered storms may begin developing ahead of the main line
• 3–6 PM: Main line of severe storms moves through the region
If storms form ahead of the main line, a few could rotate and attempt to become tornadic. The main line of storms will likely bring the greatest widespread threat, with damaging wind gusts up to 75 mph possible within stronger storms. There will be a lot of wind energy in the atmosphere, which storms could tap into quickly.
⚠️ What Could Reduce the Threat
There are still ways this setup could weaken:
• If the cold front moves faster than expected
• If morning rain and clouds linger, preventing the atmosphere from destabilizing
• Increased dry air gets mixed into the middle levels of the atmosphere.
In the Mid-Atlantic, we are notorious for these scenarios happening, which can sometimes limit severe weather outbreaks. However, this is the potential setup we are currently looking at.
I’m not sharing this to scare anyone, but to make sure our community stays prepared and informed. Now is a good time to make sure you have a severe weather plan, including where you would go if warnings are issued and how you will receive alerts Monday afternoon.
Stay with JB Weather throughout today and tomorrow for live, local coverage you can count on to stay ahead of the storm. I will have more information out throughout the day!
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