10/09/2020
Mason Votes is continuously watching polling as it comes out of key states for the 2020 Election. You can keep up to date with us at the Mason Votes website. Here is what today's new polling tells us and what it might not. Don't forget to give us your thoughts in the comments!
Arizona:
Joe Biden started a nationwide bus tour from Phoenix yesterday as polling from Latino Decisions, Ipsos, and Data Orbital indicate a soft lead of 3-5%. Arizona is still in play for both candidates, but will be defined by Maricopa County, which pulled in the necessary votes to elect Kyrsten Sinema in 2018. Democratic candidate for Senate, Mark Kelly, will also likely win with a steady 11% lead over
a severely unpopular Martha McSally. Still, a split Trump-Kelly ticket should not be counted out as Arizona has only recently fallen back into play for Democrats.
North Carolina:
North Carolina is also ripe for a split ticket and is much less predictable. Though today's Data for Progress poll puts Biden ahead 6%, most polling has reliably placed the Tarheel State within the margin of error at 2-3%, favoring Biden. This is another toss-up State where the Senate is also at play and Thom Tillis faces a strong challenger in Cal Cunningham. Tillis has lost popularity in the historic purple state due to a lackluster federal COVID response. That said, the numbers are unclear as there has not been a public poll conducted since his COVID diagnosis. Cunningham, despite promising polling in the past few weeks, has also run into trouble as a string of sexual extramarital texts have leaked to the press. Both men face tough questions in the coming weeks, but if Cunningham's numbers hold, it could benefit the Biden ticket.
Michigan:
Moving to Michigan, boy is this a doozy. Joe Biden has been leading in Michigan since the general election season began. Democrats have turned out well in the state for decades, but the state's low voter turnout in 2016 led to a Trump victory. Since, though, Democrats have had a strong showing and the governor, Gretchen Whitmer, has soared in popularity since bucking state militias on COVID. Biden's lead has stood at a solid 8-10%, but could increase in the aftermath of this week's news of nationalist militia attempts to destroy the governor's vacation home, kidnap her, and potentially execute her. After last week's debate many nationalist groups, like the Wolverine Militia, viewed President Trump's "stand back and standby" comment as an indication of support.
This race has favored Biden for quite some time, but if Trump finds a new stride in these last few weeks it could change the tone of election day. October means surprises.
-Orlando, Mason Votes Editorial Board
