04/01/2024
🚨BREAKING: DAY 2 MODERATE RISK ISSUED (TOMORROW)
A potentially substantial severe weather outbreak -- possibly including a few significant/long-track tornadoes -- is evident for Tuesday afternoon and evening, with highest probability centered over the Ohio vicinity, and extending southward across the Tennessee Valley.
For the areas across Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
Widespread thunderstorms -- including some degree of all-hazards severe risk -- will likely be spreading rapidly eastward across the Ohio Valley area at the start of the period. This convection should reach the central Appalachians by late morning/midday, but -- though potentially having some impact on destabilization potential across the MDT and ENH risk areas -- should largely shift far enough east to allow warm-sector destabilization to commence.
Storm redevelopment is expected to occur during the afternoon across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys. While evolution/storm mode remains somewhat difficult to discern -- in part due to earlier storms -- some mix of cellular and cluster/linear mode is expected to evolve.
All-hazards severe potential is evident, including very large hail, strong/damaging winds, and several significant tornadoes.
The greatest risk, which will include potential for a couple of intense/long-track tornadoes, should begin across Indiana, and the spread across Ohio through the afternoon and evening, potentially reaching as far east as western portions of West Virginia and far western Pennsylvania into the evening. Eastward advance of the risk into central Pennsylvania will likely remain limited, but otherwise threat may spread into western portions of Virginia and the Carolinas late.
For areas across Florida/Georgia/southeastern Alabama and perhaps into the western Carolinas...
Thunderstorm development is expected to increase late in the period from the Florida Panhandle northeastward, ahead of the advancing cold front. With indications of potentially cellular mode with this convection, concerns for a very late-period increase in tornado potential exist, given background shear profiles supportive of updraft rotation. While somewhat uncertain at this point, have expanded 5% tornado probability substantially eastward/southeastward to include this potential.
Stay tuned for unsainted weather reports for an update!