10/06/2026
We are closely monitoring the tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf, which currently has a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next few days.
While direct tropical hazards such as high winds or significant severe weather are not expected in our area, the system will play a key role in our local weather.
Its primary effect on Alachua County will be a continuous funnel of tropical moisture across North Central Florida, keeping our rain chances elevated through the weekend.
This rain follows a very wet 24 hours across our area, during which Gainesville recorded over 5 inches of rainfall. As this pattern persists, current forecasts project as much as 3 inches of rain across Alachua County through Friday morning, though isolated heavy rain bands could produce localized totals of 6 to 8 inches.
Right now, there is a 70% chance of receiving at least 2 inches of rain over the next 72 hours, however, because local soils are already saturated from recent storms, a Marginal to Slight Risk (Level 1 to 2 out of 4) for flash flooding remains in place for low-lying and poor-drainage areas through the weekend.
You can always find the latest weather forecast for our area by visiting the US National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida website at weather.gov/jax.
We will keep you up to date with any significant changes as the weather system continues to evolve.