Center for the Study of Active Volcanoes

09/18/2026

Kīlauea's summit lava fountains are becoming harder to forecast 🌋

Since early 2025, scientists used tiltmeter data to forecast when the next fountain would occur — relying on a fairly steady pattern of reinflation in the summit magma chamber.

Recently, that pattern has become irregular. Pauses between episodes now show periods of deflation followed by sometimes rapid reinflation, making forecasts more complex. After episode 54, several deflation periods were recorded, and then on September 14–16, six new vents opened in Halemaʻumaʻu.

It’s still unclear whether fountaining has ended or what the new vents mean for the future of this summit eruption. HVO scientists continue monitoring tilt, earthquakes, and changes at the summit to see how this evolving activity develops.

A reminder that tiltmeters are very sensitive to rain, which Kīlauea has gotten a lot of over the past day! Small changes at the POC tiltmeter on the East Rift Zone are related to rainfall and not volcanic changes. No anomalous activity has been detected outside the summit region of Kīlauea.

Learn more: https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/news/volcano-watch-ups-and-downs-episode-forecasting-using-tilt-data

📉: Plot shows four months of data from tiltmeter UWD at Kīlauea’s summit.

09/18/2026

Well owl be!

An eagle-eyed USGS geologist checking the F1 thermal camera noticed the silhouette of an owl perched on a rock at the crater’s edge last night and brought it to our attention. Apparently people aren’t the only creatures interested in all of the (e)vents and activity happening at Kīlauea summit lately.

Hoo dis? Hard to say if this is a pueo (the native short-eared owl) or a non-native barn owl. We think probably the latter since pueo are primarily active in the day, and barn owls are nocturnal. BUT Kīlauea does bring out the night owl in many of us!

Thanks for the share, USGS!

📸USGS thermal cam image of an owl in silhouette with its wings raised, look at the bottom center of this image.

09/16/2026

09/16/2026

09/15/2026

🌋Could this be a huliau (a time of change) for Kīlauea? Or just a minor shift of summit eruption behavior?

So what’s different?

✔️Unsteady summit inflation
✔️Episode 55 lava fountains, if they come, are taking their time. It has been more than a week of precursory activity like overflows, spattering but no fountains.
✔️The last time we had lava fountains was on the NPS Birthday, August 25. It's been a minute!
✔️Newly formed cracks appeared on and near the base of the northwest wall in Halemaʻumaʻu crater and erupted lava overnight
✔️A new cone formed in the north vent, producing gas flames and lava spatter. You might say the main attraction currently? USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory measured it at about 40 feet high.
✔️A third vent joined the north and south as something to watch.

So what’s next?

According to UGSS, the summit region continues to be highly pressurized, but it is not possible to forecast what might happen next. Two possibilities include the new vents erupting continuously or the new vents shutting down and returning all activity to the established vents.

📸USGS screenshot from the newly positioned V2 livestream camera that shows the new crack and lava breakout (the shiny silvery lava) this morning. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9-oSpYpubg