Samuel Williams

12/24/2023

~Urwendi~

02/11/2018

02/09/2017

** Final Storm Forecast : Late Tonight - Thursday **

Timing:
- Snow begins between 1am and 5am Thursday
- Snow falls heavy at times between 4am and 11am
- Snow tapers off between 11am and 3pm Thursday

Impacts:
- Snow covered and icy roads
- Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
- 10mph to 20mph winds, with blowing and drifting snow
- White out conditions possible at times
- Treacherous travel expected
- Thunder snow possible in convective bands

Snowfall:
- Western Catskills (zone 1): 2 to 6 inches
- N&W HV, East Catskills: (Zone 2,5,N3): 3 to 8 inches
- Majority of HV (Zone S3,4,6,7,8,9): 6 to 12 inches (locally 12"+)

-- Discussion --

Well, this has been a challenging forecast, and should be quite a storm. The storm will reach eastern VA after midnight tonight, and as the storm deepens and moves off shore, it will push moderate to heavy snowfall northward, into the Hudson Valley. Start time has been pushed back an hour or so, because some of the guidance is suggesting a stronger, slower storm.

The heaviest snow should fall during the early and mid morning hours, where rates of 1 to 2 (possibly even 3) inches per hour are possible. When combined with winds 10 to 20mph, will create near whiteout conditions across parts of the region. Travel conditions Thursday morning will be dangerous, and travel is not advised if possible.

Snowfall amounts generally on the order of 6 to 12 inches are possible. We have stressed throughout, that the exact track of this system will determine the axis of heaviest snow. Someone in our area will see over 12 inches from this system, but pinpointing where that band of heaviest snow sets up, is not possible until the event is underway. So a general 6 to 12 inches are likely (with the lower amounts as you go north, and higher amounts as you go south). As the storm develops Thursday morning, we'll iron out where that "sweet spot" is going to set up. A very, very busy next 24 hours, thank you so much for riding along with us for it!

02/02/2017

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