05/06/2026
When assessing the need for burn bans, the N.C. Forest Service evaluates several factors. Those factors include weather, fire danger, fuel conditions, fire activity and the difficulty to control wildfires. In general, a burn ban is considered when the long-range forecast indicates weather and wildland fire conditions are expected to worsen, and we don’t see improvement in conditions on the ground. Resource availability is also part of the decision-making process when it comes to determining when and where burn bans are needed. This is also the case when we look at lifting burn bans or removing restrictions on open burning.
Let’s dissect the statewide ban that was enacted March 28. The ban was lifted for 81 counties effective 8 a.m., Sunday May 3 and remains in effect for 19 counties. Why?
First, let’s talk about drought. It took us a long time to reach the drought severity we’ve arrived at. It will take us a substantial stretch of time to recover. The U.S. Drought Monitor provides a “snapshot” of current conditions. A new drought monitor is released every Thursday. The data captured in that monitor is from the week leading up to that Thursday. In other words, the drought monitor is not a forecast. It’s a snapshot, essentially looking back over the period of a week at drought conditions leading up to the date the drought monitor is released. For example, if you look at the current drought monitor that was released Thursday, April 30, the data you’re looking at reflects conditions that existed between April 21 and April 28.
Now, let’s talk about rainfall and how that shows up in the drought monitor. Knowing that the current drought monitor reflects conditions through April 28, none of the rain received May 2 has impacted the monitor yet. You should see those impacts when the new monitor releases Thursday, May 7. Additionally, if the rain forecast for midweek this week does indeed arrive, you shouldn't see those impacts show up in the drought monitor for another week – not until Thursday, May 14.
When we look at fire danger, we rely on tools like the Fire Weather Intelligence Portal to help look at lots of variables at the same time, precipitation being one. In general, an inch or two of rain over a 7–10-day period indicates a beneficial wet period rather than a single storm event. If this amount of rain falls within a few hours, it can cause localized flooding. When spread over 7-10 days, it is a soaking rain that is absorbed rather well. Looking at the rain we received Saturday and considering the rainfall received over the previous six days, most areas of the state had received nearly an inch or more, except for a doughnut hole in the Triad area. See the map we’ve included. This map shows total rainfall received statewide between April 25 and May 2. Many areas were pushing close to an inch received, and many areas were better than an inch. While this isn’t enough to be a drought breaker, it does help lower fire danger. The beneficial week of rain, increased humidity and better overnight recovery have moderated fire danger enough to lift the ban for 81 counties. That doughnut hole in the Triad area just isn’t there yet, which is why the state-issued ban remains in effect for those 19 counties until conditions improve enough.
