03/18/2020
I continue to be shocked by the confusion and the lack of understanding of the impending Coronavirus crisis even among those who are educated and you would think would know better.
Yesterday when I voted, the poll workers were all in their late 60s, 70s and 80s and at high risk for serious complications if they contracted the virus. And yet, many of them weren’t even taking the most basic precautions. Everywhere I go, people are acting like nothing is out of the ordinary.
I know that it’s important not to panic and that public officials are naturally inclined to be reassuring, but it’s become clear to me that most people just don’t have a clue how serious this Coronavirus emergency is going to be. Panic isn’t helpful, but this cluelessness and complacency is going to be much, much more deadly. That’s why I felt like I had to speak out right now.
I think maybe the simplest way to get across the gravity of the situation that we are on the verge of facing with the coming epidemic of Coronavirus is some basic numbers. These are estimates based on what experts have documented in other countries.
70% is the % of people that are likely to contract the virus in the next 18 - 24 months– McDonough County has approximately 30,000 people. 30,000 x 70% = 21,000. 21,000 people are likely to catch the virus
81% is the % of people who catch the virus but won’t need hospitalization to survive. Many or most of these cases will still be serious. It includes, for example, those who will have pneumonia but who don’t require hospitalization. Most of these people in the “mild” group will still be sick for two weeks. 81% of 21,000 is 17,010
15% is the % of people who will need some form of specialized care in a hospital to survive but may not need a respirator. 15% of 21,000 is 3,150. These cases typically last 3 to 6 weeks.
4% is the % of people who will need intensive care and a respirator (again, for weeks) to survive. 4% of 21,000 is 840. I don’t think you want to know the number of respirators available in McDonough County. Let’s just say there aren’t enough.
I know that these numbers seem crazy high but I’ve run them by my brother-in-law who is a cardiologist in a small town in Germany (and currently on the front lines of the epidemic) as well as a regional physician who confirmed that they were accurate. These numbers are sound. They are easy to find online from credible (and scientifically based) sources.
I’ll add that the numbers of seriously ill are likely to be significantly higher here given how much older our population is on average.
We can’t avoid Coronavirus sweeping through McDonough County. It is insidiously contagious. The situation here and throughout the country and the world is going to be terrible.
However, we can do a lot to keep this situation from getting worse than it has to be. We need to buy time and we do that by getting everyone to stay home and to have everyone follow all of the recommendations about staying away from other people, being meticulously careful about touching public surfaces, washing hands, using hand sanitizer and so on.
I just can’t emphasize this one point strongly enough. STAY HOME! And keep your family home. Don’t go out unless absolutely necessary and don’t go out at all if you have underlying health conditions or are over 60. Coronavirus is much more likely to be fatal for people in these categories.
Please take this seriously and act appropriately.
I wish you all well as we face this together.
