08/12/2026
We've just released our updated bear population estimate based on 2025 data. Our model tells us there were somewhere between 7,500 - 8,900 bears on the landscape last year, making 2025 the fifth year in a row that the bear population estimate was above our objective of 3,500 - 5,500 bears. Here are a few points to have in mind as you think about what those numbers mean:
🐻 We use a statistical model to estimate a range that includes the likely number of bears on the landscape each year. For example, our model tells us there were *between* 7,500 - 8,900 bears in Vermont in 2025, compared to between 6,800 – 8,000 bears in Vermont in 2024.
🐻 Our model results are always one year behind the current year. This is because we use the breakdown of ages and the number of female and male bears harvested during Vermont's regulated bear hunting season, plus data from bears killed by cars and in conflicts with humans, to run our model. Those data are compiled over the course of a whole year and analyzed the following year.
🐻 When you’re reading this graph, keep in mind that tighter ranges generally indicate better quality data to feed our model from a given year. Broader ranges generally indicate spottier data and a less reliable output. So, our tight 7,500 – 8,900 estimate for 2025 comes from a good, reliable dataset for that year. When you see a really broad range like we have in 2010 or 2011, that reflects a year with spotty data. For those two years, it’s likely we had a population closer to the 2008, 2009 and 2012 sizes.
🐻 You’ll notice our model results show tight ranges and consistent population growth since 2018. We’re very confident about that trend because we see it in more places than just our model. Our hunter data shows high harvest numbers over the past few years as well as more young adult bears in the 2-3 year old range being harvested, and we are also getting more and more anecdotal reports of bears with large litters of 3 or 4 cubs.
🐻 This all tracks with the hypothesis that we have a lot of healthy bears with access to plenty of food on the landscape. If this is in fact the case, those are conditions that would let bears have more cubs and raise those cubs to the point that they can fend for themselves. We’re doing a GPS collaring and health tracking study of black bears and their cubs right now to learn more about why the population might be growing.