07/28/2025
12 p.m. UPDATE: Rice County is now under a MODERATE RISK for severe thunderstorms (this is a risk on a scale of 4 out of 5). There is a 2% probability of tornadoes, a 15% probability of one inch in diameter hail, and a significant risk of damaging winds.
Our "Plain English" area forecast discussion reads as follows:
Growing confidence in dangerous storms again this afternoon and evening, moving from west-to-east across the region. All dangerous conditions are possible, with the greatest threat being very strong, destructive winds. There is potential for winds in excess of 75 mph with the strongest storms. Confidence is increasing in dangerous storms developing across the Dakotas late this morning, and moving west-to-east across Minnesota into southern Wisconsin later this afternoon and evening. The moderate risk is driven by a much higher chance of very strong, destructive winds, and the word "derecho" (a widespread, long-lived line of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds) was mentioned in their discussion.
As for actions you can take, please monitor the weather closely later today, and be prepared to seek shelter in a sturdy structure if warnings are issued for your location.
The dangerous weather setup will have a lot of atmospheric energy to work with, as air high up will cool quickly, and ground level readings will have temperatures near 90, with humidity levels in the mid to upper 70s. This will lead to plenty of storm-fueling energy, along and south of a west-to-east oriented boundary where warmer air is moving in that is forecast to set up across the region. As storms develop across the Dakotas, they should move eastward pretty quickly and form into a line with sections that bulge out. Some of the detailed computer predictions show individual storms with strong, rotating updrafts, so tornadoes and hail are also a threat, mainly across western Minnesota. The main threat however is wind. Southeast surface winds along the boundary where warmer air is moving in, coupled with increasing westerly winds higher up, will create favorable conditions with winds at different heights blowing in different directions, helping storms organize and stay strong. These storms are likely to follow where the storm energy is strongest into Minnesota. The combination of storm energy and winds at different heights should keep these storms going through the forecast area. The most likely location is south of I-94, to along I-90. Heavy rain is also a threat, but since the storms will be moving quickly, the flooding risk is more so tied to any storms that move repeatedly over the same spot. If the line of storms ends up being more driven by the cold air flowing out from the storms and lays out west-to-east as opposed to north/south, then flooding would be more of a threat.
Keep following us here at Rice County Skywarn for the latest updates, and you may want to keep our streaming channel at https://skywarn.us/streaming on throughout the day.
