02/23/2022
Residents please prepare and help us by avoiding travel during the storm
Preliminary Winter Storm Forecast : Thu Night 2/24 - Fri 2/25
In a winter full of storms where mild air in the mid levels of the atmosphere has repeatedly resulted in a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain... we appear on target for another such storm late Thursday night and Friday.
Timing:
- 10pm to 1am : snow develops from SW to NE
- 1am to 4am : periods of moderate to heavy snow
- 4am to 7am : snow changes to sleet south of I-84
- 7am to 12pm : snow mixes w/ sleet north of I-84
- 12pm to 3pm : snow/mix tapers off
Impact:
- Temps below freezing entire region
- Roads snow covered & icy
- Hazardous/Dangerous Travel conditions
- Friday AM commute greatly impacted
- Winds not expected to be a big issue
Snow Accumulation (HVW Zones):
- Catskills & Upper HV (1,2,N3,N4) : 5 to 9 inches
- Mid Hudson Valley (S3,S4,5,6,7) : 3 to 8 inches (w/ sleet)
- Lower Hudson Valley (8,9) : 2 to 6 inches (w/ sleet)
Commentary:
There are aspects of this system that we have very high confidence on, and aspects where our confidence is quite low. We'll have other posts/discussion/fireside chats that will explain those uncertainties in more detail. But a brief summary:
- High Confidence:.. a winter storm will impact the Hudson Valley... The start and end time of the event.. The Friday AM commute will be very hazardous
- Moderate Confidence:.. Upper HV & Catskills will get the most snow.. South of I-84 a changeover to sleet / freezing rain is likely.
- Low Confidence:.. How much snow falls prior to changeover to sleet.
More updates as we get more detailed information about how much warm air will be in the mid levels of the atmosphere, and how much snow vs. sleet vs. freezing rain we expect.