12/31/2024
A few thoughts on the latest weather-related social media buzz - a January deep freeze and potential winter shenanigans:
1. You know where we come from: no hype, just the facts, tell it straight. We're not sugar coating, wish-casting, or buying into the latest social media graphic posted by your backdoor neighbor.
2. YES, it is definitely going to get cold, probably very cold, and indeed perhaps . The very cold air looks to arrive early next week (January 6th-8th-ish) and stick around to some degree for several days, maybe even more than a week. Prepare for the potential that it will be the coldest air of this winter - highs in the 30s, lows in the teens. It might even be a bit colder than that for a few days. Wind chills are a concern, and potentially so are exposed pipes.
3. Winter precipitation is nowhere near certain, even in a long-duration cold snap. Check out the graphics below for the trend during the second week of January - very cold but BELOW average precipitation. I know you want snow (but no ice). But an Arctic high pressure airmass could easily push the storm track far enough south that we get cold dry air and areas *south* of us get wintry precipitation. Right now, it's simply way too far out to predict the intersection of moisture with the cold airmass.
4. This Sunday, we will get precipitation. Temperatures before and after the event would be supportive of mixed precipitation. However, during the event? Models are generally not handling the temperature profiles well as this system passes through, but the BULK of the guidance we professionals look at (that you likely don't see) says it will be warm enough for rain. Maybe a cold rain, but still rain. We're watching closely and the forecast will be updated as warranted. But just because your weather crap app or backdoor neighbor says it's going to snow or ice doesn't make it so. You can trust us to keep you posted if we see a change in the forecast.
5. Beware the share! If you aren't sure, ask. If it seems to good/bad to be true, it probably is. Don't share the hype - some out there prefer clicks/$$/fame to accuracy. Follow your trusted sources. We, for one, will be here when it's all over, doing what we do every day. No nonsense and no hype. Just preparing you adequately and keeping you safe and informed.
Now go get your outdoor faucet covers, but skip the milk and bread unless you need it anyway. And as always, thanks for your support and trust. www.memphisweather.net /EP