07/06/2024
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July 6, 11 AM update from National Weather Service on Beryl.
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Below is the entire briefing from the NWS. Key points to add are:
The confidence in the track has increased to a Medium to High Confidence with the estimate that landfall should be Between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay. The current track shows it just to the West/South of Magnolia Beach area. The are estimating a STRONG Category 1 to possibly a Category 2 strength at landfall.
The most uncertainty in the forecast is the strength, not the location. The current forecast track will put us on the "dirty" side of the storm with a possibility of receiving the most intense rain and wind. Storm Surge is forecast at 3 to 5 feet.
Estimated arrival time of Tropical Storm speed winds is Sunday evening. Monday is looking like it will be a wet and windy day.
Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings should be issued later today.
Please be prepared for this storm. It is better to over prepare than under prepare.
Next Briefing will be at 5 PM and we will provide an update to that briefing and any other information that arises.
…HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST…
…TROPICAL STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CALHOUN & INLAND REFUGIO COUNTIES…
Here is the latest information as of 10 AM CDT Today concerning Tropical Storm Beryl
What’s New?
Tropical Storm Watch now in effect for inland Calhoun County and inland Refugio County
Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for the Lower Texas Coast south of Baffin Bay
Tornado threat has increased to Moderate for the Victoria Crossroads
Flooding Rain threat has increased to Significant for the Victoria Crossroads
Confidence has increased in landfall towards the Middle Texas Coast between Baffin Bay and Sargent, TX
Summary of Information as of 10 AM CDT Today
Hurricane Watch Remains in Effect from Baffin Bay through Sargent
Tropical Storm Watch now in Effect over inland Calhoun County and inland Refugio County
Tropical Storm Warning now in Effect from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay
Location: 23.0N | 92.3W or 447 miles SE of Port Aransas, TX
Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 MPH
Present Movement: WSW 12 MPH
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 MB
Forecast:
Beryl continues on a west-northwestward track over the SW Gulf of Mexico this morning at around 12 mph, soon to turn more northwesterly. Beryl is expected to restrengthen into a hurricane late Sunday night into Monday before making landfall along the Middle Texas Coast between Baffin Bay and Sargent midday Monday. Confidence and model guidance has increased with the track and Hurricane Warnings will likely start with this afternoon's 4pm advisory package. Beryl is relatively compact in size with tropical storm force winds currently extending up to 125 miles northeast from its center. Tropical storm force winds appear to arrive as early as Sunday afternoon and mostly likely Sunday night.
South Texas Impacts:
See impacts graphic below for areal indicator on where highest impacts are expected. Regional descriptor graphic.
Winds: Sustained winds 60-80 MPH with gusts to 100 MPH within the eyewall of Beryl along the coast and islands
Significant (Islands) .
Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks.
Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over.
Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable.
Large areas with power and communications outages.
Moderate (Coastal Bend & Coastal Plains) .
Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over.
Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable.
Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
Elevated (Eastern Brush Country) .
Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
Scattered power and communications outages.
Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding: Sunday through Monday with inundation up to 5 feet above normally dry ground
Moderate .
Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low spots.
Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and numerous rip currents.
Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages.
Rainfall: 5-10" with isolated up to 15" over the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend, less than 4" west of I-35
Significant (Victoria Crossroads) .
Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
Moderate (Coastal Plains) .
Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues.
Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.
Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.
Elevated (Eastern Brush Country) .
Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots.
Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures.
Tornadoes: Isolated to scattered tornadoes from Live Oak - Nueces to the Victoria Crossroads respectively
Moderate (Victoria Crossroads) .
The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the ex*****on of emergency plans during tropical events.
Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.
Elevated (Live Oak County to Nueces County) .
The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the ex*****on of emergency plans during tropical events.
A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions.
Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
Forecaster Considerations
The track models have been more consistent and in agreement with a path toward the mid Texas Coast. The NHC did not make any significant changes to the track forecast from the 4 am advisory. The highest rainfall totals should occur along and to the right of the center of Beryl and thus projected rainfall totals. Keep in mind the average track error at 48-60 hours is about 80 miles and the average intensity error is one category. Considering Beryl will encounter ideal conditions for strengthening as it approaches the Texas coast, we continue to encourage folks to plan for a Category 2 at landfall.
