03/16/2026
A couple rounds of severe storms are forecast statewide Monday ahead of and along an approaching strong cold front. Several Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have already been issued this morning across the western half of the state, with additional warnings expected across the state throughout the day as a strong cold front moves through the region.
· A line of severe storms currently moving into western NC will continue to push eastward into this afternoon and evening. Ahead of the frontal boundary, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop through the morning and into the early afternoon hours. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to severe through midday and will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. The severe weather threat peaks this afternoon and evening during peak heating and when the frontal boundary moves through much of central and eastern NC.
· The line of severe storms will continue to push eastward, reaching western portions of central NC near midday and eastern NC later this afternoon. As the line moves through portions of central and eastern NC, widespread severe weather and locally significant severe storms may develop.
· The cold front is expected to push offshore just before midnight where the threat for severe storms will come to an end.
· The SPC has maintained a Moderate Risk (level 4 of 5) or an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) across much of NC Monday. The primary impacts will be damaging wind gusts (74mph+) and tornadoes with a reasonable maximum intensity of EF2. While large hail may also develop, the threat has decreased since yesterday.
· Locally significant wind gusts (74mph+) will likely develop along the frontal boundary, with the most probable locations within bowing segments of the thunderstorm line.
· Conditions are expected to develop by this afternoon along the frontal boundary that may support long track tornadoes with a reasonable maximum intensity of EF2. The greatest threat for strong long-track tornadoes would be within the Moderate Risk but cannot be ruled out elsewhere.
· Storm movement will be fast with smaller than usual time to seek shelter should a warning be issued for your area. Be sure to maintain several ways to receive warnings.
· Gusty winds outside of thunderstorms will continue Monday and into Tuesday before tapering off Tuesday evening. While wind gusts will not be as strong Tuesday, the strongest wind gusts will be across the NC mountains.
· A Wind Advisory will remain in effect through tonight across the NC Coast and into the overnight hours across the mountains and northern Piedmont. Wind gusts of 40-55mph are forecast outside of any severe storms that develop Monday and Monday night.
· Temperatures will fall rapidly behind the cold front where precipitation will changeover to snow across higher mountain elevations by Monday afternoon. NW flow snow showers will continue into Monday evening before tapering off after midnight.
· Snowfall totals have increased with 2-6” of snowfall possible for areas above 3,500ft and up to 8” for the highest elevations of the smokies. A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect through 3AM Tuesday for higher elevations along the TN border.
· A cold air mass lingers through Wednesday night with below freezing temperatures returning Tuesday night and again Wednesday night before warmer temperatures return Thursday.
· A Freeze Watch will go into effect Tuesday night across the SE where the growing season has begun and temperatures in the 20s are forecast overnight. Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
