06/12/2026
Tropical Disturbance Over the Western Gulf Resulting in Widespread Rain Across South Texas For The Week Ahead…
..High Risk of Rip Currents Expected This Weekend...
SOURCE: US National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
Timing and Overview
A tropical disturbance over the western Gulf is expected to continue moving toward the northwest into northeastern Mexico this weekend. At the same time, a frontal system will push south towards the Texas coastline before stalling. The system has an opportunity to re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf, increasing rain chances, especially wherever the front stalls. This will bring widespread rain chances to South Texas with forecast rainfall totals from Monday through Thursday showing widespread 1-3 inches of rainfall. The storms will be tropical in nature meaning that rainfall rates could exceed 3 inches/hr and rainfall totals in excess of 3-5 inches. Due to rainfall from the month of May across South Texas, soils will quickly saturate under a tropical downpour, leading to ponding and quick responses from smaller streams/creeks.
For marine/beach hazards, Saturday night winds increase to near 20 kts, leading to Small Craft Advisory conditions. For coastal flooding concerns, the arrival of the new moon phase, combined with the increase in long-swell periods (7-9 seconds) and the persistent southeast wind, has the possibility of water levels reaching the dunes at the high tide cycle. Additionally, there is a High Risk of rip currents this weekend. A High Risk of rip currents will likely continue into early next week.
South Texas Hazards
Rainfall (Monday through Thursday Rainfall Forecast):
Most Likely: 1-3 inches
High-end (10% chance of occurring): 3-5 inches
Coastal Flooding: Forecast of 2 ft above MSL
Coastal Waters Hazards (Saturday night into Sunday AM)
Wind: SE near 20 kts
Seas/Bays: 5-7 ft
South Texas Impacts
Heavy Rain/Flooding
Isolated flash floods possible. Quick ponding of water may occur at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas with an increased risk of hydroplaning on roadways. Storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and overflow in a few places. Flood waters may prompt brief road closures.
Coastal Flooding
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Poor driving conditions are expected as water reaches the dunes, mainly near times of high tide. Some beach access roads will be impassible. High water levels will also approach low areas along the intracoastal waterways and bays. Coastal flood impacts are dependent upon waves as well as tide level. High waves can increase the severity of impacts.
High Tide Times:
Port Aransas: Saturday 4:54 AM
Bob Hall Pier: Saturday 4:49 AM
