08/21/2026
Four regions, one theme this season: dry fuels meeting a fire year with little margin for error.
Per NIFC/NICC’s latest seasonal outlook, Arizona and New Mexico carry above-normal fire potential in August as monsoon moisture lags in western pockets, easing toward normal by October.
Northern California’s mountains and northeastern zones stay above normal through September as drought deepens in the state’s far northwest.
Southern California holds near normal, with dryness lingering near the Colorado River.
Oregon and Washington face above-normal potential across the board into September amid persistent severe-to-extreme drought.
Montana’s northern and western reaches — some areas under 20% of normal moisture — carry that same elevated signal into fall.
Nationally, over 7.5 million acres have burned so far this year, well above the 10-year average. This is the landscape proactive fuels work and prescribed fire are built for.
Full outlook linked below — source: NIFC/NICC National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook (Aug 2026) and NIFC fire statistics (as of Aug. 21).