A look at the most likely rainfall totals through the weekend shows there will be a drier trend with most rainfall occurring west of the Continental Divide until this weekend. Rain chances push east again as we get closer to the weekend, but mostly west of the Rio Grande Valley.
Here's a look at how thunderstorms could play out today. Expect storms to pop up in the area mountains around noon, spreading to the lowlands later in the afternoon. Another round of rain showers expected again in the overnight hours for much of the lowlands. Main threat continues to be flash flooding with thunderstorms.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue for the rest of the afternoon and evening. Storms will increase throughout the rest of the day. The main threat from these storms will be heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding, strong gusty winds and possibly pea sized hail. Below shows a forecast of the storm coverage through the period.
Flooding will be possible in the higher terrain today, but especially in the Sacramento Mountains which could see 2-4" in some places. This includes the Salt Fire Burn Scar which could impact HWY 70. Please avoid travel in that area between 1-4 pm if possible.
For today, most of the area will be quiet except for areas along the Continental Divide. Below shows a gif showing where thunderstorms will occur over the next several hours.
For today, most of the area will be quiet except for areas along the Continental Divide. Below shows a gif showing where thunderstorms will occur over the next several hours.
Our Monsoonal moisture is expected to gradually return this week with rain chances going up with it. The video shows the chances of getting at least 0.10" in a 24-hour period. Notice chances ramp up toward the weekend.
The focus for showers and thunderstorms shifts west today, Thursday, with the best chance for rain west of the Rio Grande plus the Sacramento Mountains.
Storms are in the forecast again for Wednesday, beginning in the mountains around mid-day, reaching El Paso - Las Cruces by early evening. The main concern will be strong, potentially damaging winds and blowing dust, much like yesterday.
Did the sunrise look a little red this morning with a hazy sky?
Well, there are no clouds out there, but there is a layer of smoke above the borderland that moved in overnight from the fires in Utah. The loop below shows the source and movement of that smoke overnight into this evening.
It'll be a hot one today with most of the lowlands in a Heat Advisory from noon until 6 AM Monday.
Relief is on the way though as temperatures will dip down Monday and Tuesday then slowly climb back up by next weekend as seen in the animation of probabilities > 100°F for Max Temperatures.
Storms are expected today, initially over the higher terrain, then slowly moving southward toward the border area by late afternoon.
Strong to Severe wind gusts (>50 mph) are possible along with localized flooding where multiple storms occur in the same location.
It doesn't look the atmosphere will be putting on much of a fireworks display today. Thunderstorm chances will largely be for far east El Paso and into Hudspeth County. Please be safe today and celebrate responsibly! And stay cool!
🦅🔴⚪🔵🎆
Thanks to this Wednesday morning's cloud coverage and light showers, we expect a quieter day for much of the area. Highest chance for showers and thunderstorms today will be for areas west of the Continental Divide and the Sacramento Mountains.
Shower and thunderstorms look more likely over western areas this Tuesday afternoon, but later this evening and into the early morning hours, showers look to shift toward the Rio Grande Valley area.
This afternoon we will continue to see isolated to scattered thunderstorms across our area. The main threat from some of these storms will be heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding and strong gusty winds. Can't rule out the possibility of pea size hail with these storms. Active weather will continue into the evening hours.
4:13PM Quite a few thunderstorms ongoing over the area. Expect brief heavy rainfall and plenty of lightning from storms.
Silver City Rain
354PM Good thunderstorm moving across Silver City. A good 0.25 to 0.50 of rain so far. The rain should last for about another 30 minutes. Minor flooding of streets is likely.
Here's a look at how storms may play out this afternoon. Expect light showers to continue this morning but thunderstorms will be possible over the area mountains this afternoon. Some isolated lowland showers/t-storms possible as well.
Here's a look at how storms may play out this afternoon. Expect light showers to continue this morning but thunderstorms will be possible over the area mountains this afternoon. Some isolated lowland showers/t-storms possible as well.
Potential Rain today
Here is an animation of one our models potential rainfall for today. As you can see most of the area only gets some light precipitation, but moderate showers and even a few thunderstorms look to linger over northeast Otero county near the South Fork and Salt burn scars. It will take very little rain to cause flooding near and downstream of these burn scars this afternoon.