07/19/2026
TROPICAL UPDATE
Tropical Update (Sunday July 19 9 a.m.) from NHC and Okaloosa Public Safety
OVERVIEW: Low pressure over the eastern Gulf has become better defined, and thunderstorm activity will continue to gradually increase. This system is expected to move slowly to the north-northwest during the next couple of days.
KEY MESSAGES:
Dangerous beach conditions are likely as early as Monday, including increased risk of rip current and high surf.
Rain chances will increase later today and continue through midweek. Rainfall amounts will depend on the system's exact track.
Strong winds and seas as the low meanders over the northern Gulf.
The tropical disturbance located in the northeastern Gulf continues to become better organized this morning and has been steadily gettings its act together. The National Hurricane Center indicates the system now has an 80% chance of becoming a named tropical storm over the next 48 hours, per their 7AM Sunday update. The latest guidance shows the system gradually moving northwest toward a landfall point along the northern Gulf Coast, likely in northwest Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, or Louisiana- exactly where is not yet known. That is a broad zone, but it is too early to be specific on where the center may come ashore. The U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter crew is scheduled to fly into this developing system this afternoon. Data acquired by the Hurricane Hunters will be fed into the weather models to help get a much clearer picture of the exact future track of this system.
Expected local impacts: Increased rain chances Monday into Tuesday, lingering into Wednesday morn across south Alabama and northwest Florida, particularly in areas closer to the coast. Flash flooding could become a concern in area where storms "traiin". A few tornadoes could develop, depending on the exact future track of the system. If the center of circulation remains further offshore with a landfall point further west, the tornado risk would largely be much lower or mitigated completely across Alabama and northwest Florida. If the center is closer to the local area, a more pronounced tornado risk may develop in the days ahead. For now, significant wind impacts are highly unlikely across much of the local area.
All of the data right now continues to point to this system remaining well below hurricane status. I expect the National Hurricane Center to probably declare this a Potential Tropical Cyclone this afternoon or this evening. That will allow the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings - totally appropriate for a situation like this. Odds are extremely high the system will be a tropical storm at landfall and not a hurricane. The reason for this is because the upper atmospheric setup isn't totally favorable for development. There will be some shear coming out of the north that helps to keep a lid on the overall intensity with this system.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today across south Alabama and northwest Florida, particularly this afternoon into this evening. These storms are the daily, pop-up storms of summer, quite similar to what we saw yesterday. Rain coverage may be enhanced slightly this afternoon into this evening due to the developing tropical system to our south. I do not expect tornado issues locally today, however. Storms will be capable of producing loud thunder, cloud-to-ground lightning, and gusty winds.
