06/30/2018
In 2014, MoCo counted 3,691 absentee ballots in Canvass 1 and 742 absentee ballots in Canvass 2. Thus, precedent suggests that there will be many fewer absentee ballots to be counted next week in Canvass 2 than the 5,028 that were counted this week in Canvass 1. Assuming 2018 looks like 2014, Marc could well retain the lead after the absentee ballots are counted.
There are also provisional ballots outstanding. In 2014, there were 1,524 provisional ballots that were counted. We'll likely see a similar number this year since the Board of Elections announced that 3,616 provisional ballots were issued. Many of course will be rejected. So who should be optimistic about those 1,500 or more provisional votes?
Sadly, if history is any guide, David Blair. In 2014, the most progressive candidate for County Executive by far was Phil Andrews. He finished third behind Ike Leggett with 22.26% of the vote. But Phil only got 18.04% of the counted provisional votes. Marc won a plurality of votes in the County Council-at-large race in 2014 with 21.17% of the votes. He very slightly underperformed among provisional votes with 20.99% of the vote.
The bottom line is that this remains, as Ed suggested, an incredibly tight race that either candidate could win.
That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Jeff Bezos, Fred Hiatt, Ryan Miner, and David Blair are toasting each other at this very moment.
Here are some (maybe not all) of the links on which I relied for this analysis:
www.montgomerycountymd.gov/Elections/Resources/Files/htm/2014/primaryelection/results/electionresults.htm
www.montgomerycountymd.gov/Elections/Resources/Files/htm/2014/primaryelection/results/provisional.htm
www.montgomerycountymd.gov/Elections/Resources/Files/htm/2014/primaryelection/results/ABSENTEE2.htm
www.montgomerycountymd.gov/Elections/Resources/Files/htm/2018/primaryelection/results/ABS1%20Unofficial%20results.HTM
