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Crown Weather Services is your one-stop weather information source by providing tropical storm & hur

Crown Weather Services is your one-stop weather information source for tropical, severe and winter weather information; this includes advanced notice/warnings of impending tropical storms and hurricanes, winter storms and severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. We also have Crown Weather PLUS, which is our subscription service for anybody with an interest or need for accurate and timely weather inform

ation with an emphasis on tropical storms and hurricanes Go to https://crownweather.com/index.php/cws-plus/crown-weather-subsciption/ to learn more about Crown Weather PLUS.

06/01/2026

Posted Monday Afternoon 6/1/2026: *** WELCOME TO THE OFFICIAL START OF THE 2026 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON ***

Today is the official start of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season & fortunately, there is nothing out there that's going to immediately develop.

Given today is the official start of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, I strongly encourage you to become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber. A subscription is well worth the money for what you get. Details on how you can subscribe can be found in the first comment of this post.

05/30/2026

Posted Saturday Afternoon 5/30/2026: There is the possibility that we could see some sort of sub-tropical development near the East Coast of the United States between Tuesday and Thursday of next week.

Another area to watch during the new week will be across central and western Gulf where a low pressure system may form & try to acquire tropical characteristics as it heads for the central or western Gulf coast.

A full discussion covering both areas of possible "interest" have been sent to our Crown Weather PLUS subscribers.

Hurricane Season 2026 "officially" begins on Monday!! Do you want to stay "in the loop" throughout the 2026 Hurricane Season? If you do, then I strongly encourage you to become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber today! Details on how you can subscribe can be found in the first comment of this post.

05/27/2026

Posted Wednesday Afternoon 5/27/2026: The Gulf, Florida and the southeastern United States are going to be quite stormy for at least the next week to 10 days. A lot of rain can be expected across much of the southeastern US and areas from Louisiana to Florida are going to have to really watch the flood threat. In fact, I’m quite concerned about the flood potential across much of Florida Peninsula where the really heavy rain & flooding may be concentrated.

With the expectation of quite a bit of storminess in the Gulf, there is the very low possibility that we could see tropical development occur in either the eastern Gulf of near the East Coast of the US sometime between this weekend and next week. It should be noted though that early season storms usually are weak and sloppy, but do pack a lot of moisture with them. While the chances for tropical development are very low, it is also not zero & is something that’ll need to be watched.

A full discussion explaining why exactly I think tropical or sub-tropical development is a possibility between this weekend and next week plus the rainfall threat across Florida and parts of the Southeast has been sent to our Crown Weather PLUS subscribers.

So, do you want to stay "in the loop" when it comes to the hurricane season? (hurricane season officially begins on Monday) If yes, then become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber today! Details on how you can subscribe can be found in the first comment of this post.

05/25/2026

Posted Monday Afternoon 5/25/2026: A feed of tropical moisture is beginning to now set up from the eastern Pacific and western Caribbean into the central and northern Gulf. It is expected that this feed of tropical moisture will only increase throughout this week & should shift into the area from the western Caribbean up into the western North Atlantic by late this week into next week.

This feed of tropical moisture will not only produce lots of heavy rain across the central and eastern Gulf states into Florida, but also could lead to some sort of tropical mischief in the area from the eastern Gulf to near the US East Coast at the very end of this month through the first of June. That being said, the chances for tropical development look extremely low & it seems there is a much greater chance for excessive amounts of rain across the central and eastern Gulf and across Florida, especially during later this week into next week. Central and South Florida is an area that could really rack up the rainfall numbers later this weekend into next week.

A full discussion explaining why exactly I think tropical or sub-tropical development is a possibility between next weekend (May 30-31) and next week plus the rainfall threat across Florida has been sent to our Crown Weather PLUS subscribers.

So, do you want to stay "in the loop" when it comes to the hurricane season? If yes, then become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber today! Details on how you can subscribe can be found in the first comment of this post.

05/22/2026

Posted Friday Afternoon 5/22/2026: While the Atlantic Basin looks to be quiet this weekend through next week, there are some increasing signals in the data that seem to be pointing towards the possibility of the occurrence of tropical development in the area from around the Florida Peninsula & the far northern Bahamas northeastward to just offshore of the Carolina coastline as soon as around the first of June. This includes a favorable look in the background state and the fact that some of the model guidance are now showing the possibility of tropical development around the first of June.

Additionally, the pattern that might produce possible tropical mischief may also bring some large rainfall totals to much of the Florida Peninsula, as well as along the central and eastern Gulf coast. An active jet stream combined with rising motion and increased storminess will bring a lot of moisture and lift into the Gulf states as well as into the Florida Peninsula. It should be noted that many of the model guidance members are pointing towards the potential for 10 or more inches of rainfall to accumulate across this area during next week and especially during the first week of June. It goes without saying that any rain across Florida and the southeastern US would be extremely welcome due to the extreme drought. That being said, too much rain in a short period of time can also lead to problems & we could very easily go from extreme drought to flood issues in a short period of time. Something to watch going forward.

A full discussion explaining why exactly I think tropical development is a possibility during the first week of June plus the rainfall threat has been sent to our Crown Weather PLUS subscribers.

So, do you want to stay "in the loop" when it comes to the hurricane season? If yes, then become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber today! Details on how you can subscribe can be found in the first comment of this post.

05/19/2026

Posted Midday Tuesday 5/19/2026: Even though tropical development is not expected for at least the next 10 days or so, there continues to be signals that point towards possible tropical mischief during the first couple of weeks of June in the area from the northwestern Caribbean through the eastern Gulf and into the southwestern North Atlantic.

The area that I think we will probably need to watch most closely for tropical development is the northwestern Caribbean and the eastern Gulf during the first 10 days or so of June.

A full discussion explaining why exactly I think tropical development is a possibility during the first couple of weeks of June has been sent to our Crown Weather PLUS subscribers.

So, do you want to stay "in the loop" when it comes to the hurricane season? If yes, then become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber today! Details on how you can subscribe can be found in the first comment of this post.

05/15/2026

Posted Friday Afternoon 5/15/2026: The Atlantic Basin in quiet right now with no areas of interest. All-in-all, I do not expect any sort of tropical development across the Atlantic for at least the next 7 to 10 days or so.

Beyond this, there's the possibility that tropical mischief could be a concern during the first couple of weeks or so of June. The area that I think that may need to be watched for tropical development is across the northwestern Caribbean, the eastern Gulf and near the US Southeast coast from about Florida to the North Carolina coast.

A full discussion explaining why I think tropical development is a possibility during the first couple of weeks of June has been sent to our Crown Weather PLUS subscribers. The latest discussion also includes the latest info on what the hurricane season ahead might look like & what areas are of highest concern this season for tropical impacts.

So, do you want to stay "in the loop" when it comes to the hurricane season? If yes, then become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber. Details on how you can subscribe can be found in the first comment.

05/08/2026

Posted Friday Afternoon 5/8/2026: It appears possible that the first week of June or so may be our first opportunity for tropical development on the Atlantic side of the tropics. The area that I think that may need to be watched for tropical development is across the northwestern Caribbean, the eastern Gulf and near the US Southeast coast from about Florida to the North Carolina coast.

A full discussion explaining why I think tropical development is a possibility during the first week of June has been sent to our Crown Weather PLUS subscribers. Do you want to stay "in the loop" when it comes to the hurricane season? If yes, then become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber. Details on how can be found in the first comment.

05/01/2026

Posted Friday Afternoon 5/1/2026: It's the first of May & that means it's time for me to start looking towards the tropics.

A full and comprehensively detailed weather update has just been sent to all of our Crown Weather PLUS subscribers. Not a subscriber & want to become one, look in the first comment on how to become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber.

In our update, I detailed that while things across the Atlantic will probably be quiet for at least the next couple of weeks, it's possible that tropical development chances may go up near the end of this month & especially during early June.

I also updated our subscribers on the areas that may be of most concern this hurricane season, even though I'm expecting a below average hurricane season in terms of numbers.

Additionally, I also think that rainfall totals will be below average to possibly well below average this summer across the Caribbean, as well as across the Bahamas, Florida & across much of the southern and southeast US. We may not see any above average rainfall in the southern and southeast US until later this fall and during the winter of 2026-27.

FINALLY - I do think that the months of June and July may be busier than active in terms of tropical development. I also think that the peak months of August and September could be nearly dead in terms of tropical development, especially in the deep tropics and the Caribbean.

04/27/2026

Posted Late Monday Morning 4/27/2026: *** SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI, NORTHERN ARKANSAS, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WESTERN KENTUCKY & WESTERN TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON & THIS EVENING ***

- SUMMARY: Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected in the area from the middle Mississippi Valley through the lower Ohio Valley and into the Mid-South this afternoon and this evening. Multiple strong to violent tornadoes of EF-3 or more in strength, widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail is expected, especially across eastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, central and southern Illinois, western Kentucky and northwestern Tennessee.

- DETAILS: A very active severe weather afternoon and evening is expected across much of the middle Mississippi Valley, the lower Ohio Valley and the Mid-South. It appears likely that there will be a corridor for intense supercells with strong to violent tornadoes this afternoon and this evening across eastern Missouri and central and especially southern Illinois.

NOTE - I do have significant concerns that the St. Louis metro may be at extreme risk for tornadoes late this afternoon and early this evening between about 4 pm CDT and 8 pm CDT.

An upper-level trough of low pressure is expected to push northeastward from the central and northern Plains states into the Midwestern US this afternoon and tonight. In response to this, it is expected that a surface low pressure system will develop across Wisconsin and Minnesota by this evening with a warm front stretching across the Midwestern US. It is likely that a very unstable and strongly sheared air mass will be in place during this afternoon across central and eastern Missouri into southern Illinois, the lower Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South.

Supercell severe thunderstorms are expected to develop between about 2 and 4 pm CDT across the middle Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South. These supercells will exist in a very favorable environment for tornadoes and multiple strong to violent tornadoes of EF-3 or more in strength are likely across eastern Missouri and central and especially southern Illinois.

It appears that eastern Missouri, including the St. Louis metro may be at extreme risk for tornadoes between about 4 pm CDT and 8 pm CDT. Southern Illinois may then be at extreme risk for tornadoes between about 5 pm CDT and 10 pm CDT.

As we get into the overnight hours of tonight, it is expected that these supercells will evolve into clusters of severe storms capable of producing widespread damaging winds across the middle Mississippi Valley and the lower Ohio Valley.

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