EWC Seminars: Future of US-China-Hong Kong
ASEAN Matters for America: What is ASEAN?
Today is the 53rd anniversary of the founding of ASEAN! Refresh yourself on the dynamic US relationship to Southeast Asia on the ASEAN section of our Asia Matters for America website: asiamattersforamerica.org/asean/what-is-asean
#ASEANDAY
Comparing South Korea’s COVID-19 Tracking with Europe: "Efficacy is what's at stake"
Dr. June Park of the National Research Foundation of Korea compares contact tracing apps used in Europe and South Korea, discussing how Korea's 2015 MERS outbreak led to changes that paved the way for its COVID-19 tracking system.
Watch the full seminar: vimeo.com/440529103
Read Dr. Park's Asia Pacific Bulletin: eastwestcenter.org/ZNx
President Moon’s Drive for Change 2020: Rise of Liberal Politics in South Korea
President Moon Jae-In’s policy agenda has been largely understood as the ‘progressive reform 2.0’ of the late President Roh, his former boss and best friend. And as President Moon’s term has entered the latter half of a five-year presidency, his efforts have achieved significant milestones in both domestic and foreign affairs. These milestones include three summit meetings with Kim Jong-un plus talks of a peace treaty between Seoul and Pyongyang along with Washington, recent passage of key domestic reform bills for national assembly elections, and limiting the power of the prosecutor’s office. Those moves represent certain tectonic shifts in South Korea’s political landscape from 70 years’ dominance of conservative politics to the rise of the progressive liberals in the Korean society. Yet, as President Moon pushes forward his change agenda in 2020, his government faces many challenges including rapidly rising housing prices amid slow economic growth and a widening income gap, stalled nuclear talks between Pyongyang and Washington, political scandals with the indictment of officials close to the President Moon, and strong backlash from conservatives. The April 2020 mid-term general election will be a watershed moment for Moon’s drive for implementing a liberal agenda which will decide the fate of his reform efforts and South Korea’s political future with important geo-political implications.
The Indo-Pacific: Trump, China, and the New Struggle for Global Mastery
In his newest book, The Indo-Pacific: Trump, China, and the New Struggle for Global Mastery, Mr. Richard Heydarian places the presidency of Donald Trump as well as the brewing Sino-American Cold War within the broader historical context of American hegemony in Asia, which traces its roots to Alfred Thayer Mahan’s call for a naval build up in the Pacific, the subsequent colonization of the Philippines and, ultimately, reaching its apotheosis after the defeat of Imperial Japan in the Second World War. The book, drawing on visits from Cairo to California and Perth to Pyongyang as well as interviews and exchanges with heads of state and senior officials from across the Indo-Pacific, provides an overview of the arc of American primacy in the region for scholars, journalists, and concerned citizens.
Speakers:
Mr. Richard Javad Heydarian, Resident Analyst, GMA Network & Columnist, Philippine Daily Inquirer
Dr. Satu P. Limaye, Vice President, East-West Center & Director, East-West Center in Washington
Recorded:
Tuesday, January 7, 2020
East-West Center in Washington
1819 L Street, NW, Washington, DC
EastWestCenter.org/Washington
East-West Center in Washington
Security and Political Trends in East Asia: Insights from an NCAFP Delegation Trip
In November 2019, the National Committee on American Foreign Policy (NCAFP) sent a delegation of distinguished experts and practitioners to meet with government officials, scholars and experts across Northeast Asia. The group visited Beijing, Shanghai, Taipei, Tokyo and Seoul; and in each city held frank and authoritative discussions on regional dynamics and security issues including U.S.-China relations, cross-Taiwan Strait relations, North Korea, and the future of U.S. alliances.
Introduced by Ambassador Susan M. Elliott, President and CEO of the NCAFP, the panel featured delegation members Ambassador Raymond Burghardt, Ambassador James Zumwalt, Ms. Susan Thornton, and Mr. Mark Tokola.
Neither Decline nor Displacement: America’s Trade Success with Southeast Asia
Reality and narrative are not the same. This is particularly the case when it comes to America’s current trade relations with the ten economies of Southeast Asia. A predominant narrative approaching the level of a conventional wisdom is that the United States is a declining economic power in Southeast Asia and is being displaced by the People’s Republic of China. The impressive stock and continuing inflows of U.S. FDI into the region are often used as a counter to these declinist claims, while aggregate trade figures are used to bolster them. However, a closer look at U.S. trade with the ten Southeast Asian economies from 2013 to 2018 clearly show that the U.S. is neither a declining economic power in Southeast Asia nor is it being displaced by the People’s Republic of China. Instead, the U.S. is an increasingly important export market for all ten Southeast Asian economies, an increasingly important trading partner for all but Brunei Darussalam and the Philippines, and an important source of imports for at least five Southeast Asian economies. America’s trade with Southeast Asia is growing in absolute and relative terms despite the absence of bilateral or regional preferential trade agreements linking the world’s largest economy to one of the world’s most dynamic regions.
An Australian Geostrategic SWOT Analysis: Implications for the United States & a Free & Open Indo-Pacific
A spectrum of security challenges ranging from great power contestation, looming environmental catastrophe and a spectrum of governance challenges are leading to a significant security overhaul in Australia with significant implications for the U.S. approach to engagement across the Indo-Pacific. This talk reviews the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing Australia and its Indo-Pacific neighborhood and what that means for the Australian-U.S. Alliance.
How the Trade War is Slowing Asia’s Economic Growth
Economic growth in developing Asia currently remains robust but prospects have dimmed and risks to the region’s economies are rising as trade and investment weaken, according to Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2019 Update, the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) flagship economic publication. The report forecasts economic growth in the 45 countries of developing Asia at 5.4% this year before nudging up to 5.5% in 2020. These newly lowered forecasts reflect gloomier prospects for international trade due in part to escalating trade tensions between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States (U.S.), as well as slowing economic growth in advanced economies and the large economies of developing Asia, including the PRC, India, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand.
The prospects for growth vary across the sub regions of developing Asia. The slowdown in global trade coupled with a sharp downswing in the electronics cycle has pulled down forecasts for the PRC and the more open economies in East and Southeast Asia. ADO 2019 Update forecasts the PRC economy to expand 6.2% this year and 6.0% next year. East Asia as a whole is expected to grow 5.5% in 2019 and 5.4% in 2020, while Southeast Asia is seen expanding 4.5% and 4.7%, respectively.
In its latest annual report on regional growth prospects, the Asian Development Bank focuses on the impact of the trade war on economic growth in the region. This issue of the ADO 2019 Update has a special focus on cities and urban policies and challenges in Asian and the Pacific. Join us for a discussion on the economic outlook, what is impacting long term growth in the region, and the role cities play in economies in Asia and the Pacific.
Defending Maritime Interests in the Indo-Pacific
Over the last decade, territorial and maritime disputes in the South China Sea (SCS) have intensified. The disputes are complex and multifaceted: they include overlapping sovereignty and maritime jurisdictional claims; contests over freedom of navigation; and concerns over militarization, artificial island-building, and the use of ‘grey zone’ tactics. The SCS has become a highly visible microcosm of broader disputes between the U.S.-led regional security order, challenging conceptions of order that see a bigger role for rising powers in generating new rules and providing alternative interpretations of international law. The United States’ 2019 Indo-Pacific Strategy Report outlined expectations that allies and partners would contribute to defending the regional ‘rules-based order’ by adequately resourcing their own defense; strengthening interoperability with the U.S.; promoting Indo-Pacific initiatives; and, importantly, ‘flying, sailing, and operating to uphold international laws and norms’ in and above the seas. Given the emphasis on security networks as a crucial plank in defending the rules-based status quo, a key question is whether these states share similar conceptions of regional order, maritime rules, and strategic interests. What are the stakes for regional non-claimant states in specific theaters of contestation, such as the South China Sea? How do these states act to preserve their interests? This presentation will attempt to address these questions by comparing the interests and approaches of regional, middle, and small Indo-Pacific states.
Is the BRI Sustainable? Evidence from the Kunming-Vientiane Railway and Beyond
The Kunming-Vientiane (K-V) railway, part of the Kunming-Singapore multi-country rail network (or “Pan-Asia Railway”), is an anchor investment of the Chinese government’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI). Morris’ case study assesses the rail project along four dimensions: economic implications; procurement arrangements; labor; and environmental and social safeguards. In each of these areas, evidence from the railway project suggests that Chinese policy and practice could be better aligned with the practices of other sources of multilateral and bilateral development finance. Where the project’s standards are broadly aligned, at least in principle, there is nonetheless reason to believe that China’s approach carries heightened risks given the overall scale of financing.
These risks hold for China’s global program of official finance, which has made the country the largest source of official credit in the world. Morris discussed how BRI policymakers should consider a more rigorous set of “best practices” that align Chinese official finance with leading multilateral standards, even if these practices don’t currently characterize many other bilateral lenders. Such an approach would be consistent with the multilateral vision for BRI espoused by Chinese officials and would better ensure sustainability in BRI.
A Military Coup, A Royal Transition, An Election: Thailand’s Domestic and Foreign Trajectories
Thailand has fallen into a deep crisis lasting for more than a decade now. The military staged two coups within a period of eight years, overthrowing two siblings from the Shinawatra family. While the first coup in 2006 was primarily meant to remove Thaksin from power, the second coup was directly related to the imminent royal succession. For seven decades, Thai political elites relied immensely on the royal dominance of King Bhumibol Adulyadej. But by 2014, Bhumibol was bedridden, creating a sense of anxiety among his supporters in high places. They were anxious about the upcoming new reign under Vajiralongkorn who lacked both charisma and moral authority. The coup in 2014 that toppled Yingluck paved the way for both the continuity of royal dominance and the entrenchment of political power of the military. The political elites rewrote a constitution that would facilitate their staying power. Consequently, the election of 2019 produced the expected result, with General Prayuth Chan-ocha returning to the premiership at the expense of democratization.
Dr. Pavin Chachavalpongpun discussed the current political situation in Thailand and the country’s foreign policy, particularly its relations with the United States and China. He touched upon the impact of the domestic crisis in Thailand on the way in which Thai diplomacy has been conducted in the past and will likely be pursued in the future.
U.S.-Pakistan Relations: Challenges and Prospects to Pivot from AFPAK to Indo-Pacific
For almost two decades, the U.S.-Pakistan relationship has remained fixated on cooperation in Afghanistan and counter-terrorism efforts. Meanwhile, China has made major inroads into Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a $60 billion flagship energy and infrastructure project of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Within this context, Mr. Riaz Khokhar proposed that it will be an effective strategy for the United States to engage with Islamabad economically by providing the country with alternative investment options. This may help the country move from too close an alignment with China to a position where it does not harm the U.S.’ strategic interests. He also proposed that Islamabad should remain nonaligned in the U.S.-China competition and address the concerns of the international community regarding excessive Chinese influence and the alleged patronage of militants.
He drew on the perspectives of experts, diplomats, and government officials from both Washington and Islamabad regarding the prospects of and challenges to his proposed strategy.
Who Shapes Infrastructure Development Policy for East Asia? Policy Diffusion and Japan-China Dynamics
Facing infrastructure export competition from China through its Belt-and-Road Initiative, the Japanese government has bolstered its own version of “quality infrastructure exports,” especially to developing countries in the Indo-Pacific. Despite the apparent distinction of quality versus low-cost, the way that these two countries promote infrastructure investments in East Asia share many characteristics, from the government-led strategy to key emphasis on certain physical constructions. By analyzing the recent infrastructure “competition” between Japan and China, this project examined how infrastructure development policy is shaped in East Asia.
North Korea in the World - China-DPRK
Want to know more about North Korea's relations with China? Visit North Korea in the World to get all the facts and figures on trade, investment, and more: https://bit.ly/2JOIZbi
North Korea in the World - Economic
Learn more about North Korea's economic relations by visiting North Korea in the World! Get the facts and figures on regional trade, foreign investment, and more: https://bit.ly/2JOIZbi
North Korea in the World - Inter-Korean
Learn more about North Korea's inter-Korean relations by visiting North Korea in the World! Get the facts and figures on inter-Korean trade, inter-Korean dialogue, family reunions, and more: https://bit.ly/2JOIZbi
North Korea in the World - Diplomatic
Learn more about North Korea's diplomatic relations by visiting North Korea in the World! See which countries have established relations with DPRK, where DPRK has embassies, and what countries have embassies in DPRK: https://bit.ly/2JOIZbi
India’s 2019 Election and Possible Outcomes
The Indian national elections are being conducted over six weeks through April and May 2019. With 900 million eligible voters and one million polling booths, it is the world’s biggest exercise in democracy. The use of digital media and technology in the 2014 Indian national elections, particularly by the governing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has been widely noted. In 2019, with an estimated half-a-billion Indians having access to the Internet, social media has played a greater role in the campaign of all political parties. The seminar, which took place shortly before the results were announced, analyzed the nature of the election campaign, the dominant issues and the impact of Prime Minister Narendra Modi on voters. It also looked ahead to the possible outcomes of the election and the prospects of government formation.
India’s Economic Transformation and Its Evolving Foreign Policy
India is in the midst of rapid socio-economic change, anchored in a drive for all around development. A number of domestic reform measures are transforming India into a knowledge-based, skill-supported, and technology-driven society. As the fastest-growing large economy in the world, India’s growth and the geostrategic changes at the global and regional levels are major drivers of its evolving foreign policy. India’s key objectives include a focus on “neighborhood first” policy, cultivating ties in the broader Indo-Pacific region including through connectivity projects, revitalizing India’s strategic partnerships with major powers, and enhancing defense diplomacy. India is no longer just a bystander but is actively involved in shaping outcomes. Of all India’s relationships, ties with the US are of the greatest strategic significance. As fellow democracies, the US, along with Japan, have a vital role to play in enabling India to access the markets and technologies that are necessary for India to play a bigger role and meet the aspirations of its 1.2 billion people.
Putin's World: Russia Turns Against the West and Pivots to China
How did Russia manage to emerge resurgent on the world stage and play a weak hand so effectively? Angela Stent's new book "Putin’s World: Russia Against the West and with the Rest" examines the country’s turbulent past, how it has influenced Putin, the Russians’ understanding of their position on the global stage and their future ambitions—and their conviction that the West has tried to deny them a seat at the table of great powers since the Soviet collapse. One of the major successes of Putin's foreign policy is the rapprochement with China. She discussed Russia's Pivot to Asia, focusing on the growing Sino-Russian partnership, the wary relationship with Japan, and the limits to Russia's Asian vocation.
Asia's Regional Architecture: Alliances and Institutions in the Pacific Century
During the Cold War, the U.S. built a series of alliances with Asian nations to erect a bulwark against the spread of communism and provide security to the region. Despite pressure to end bilateral alliances in the post-Cold War world, they persist to this day, even as new multilateral institutions have sprung up around them. In this book launch event, Dr. Andrew Yeo discussed whether Asia’s evolving regional architecture, defined by a complex array of overlapping bilateral and multilateral institutions, enhances cooperation or exacerbates existing rivalries in the region. He addressed this question in light of the Trump administration's Asia strategy and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s regional ambitions.
Thirsty Cities: Social Contracts and Public Goods Provision in China and India
NOTE: The video freezes around 45:23 but the audio continues.
Dr. Selina Ho spoke on her recently published book, Thirsty Cities: Social Contracts and Public Goods Provision in China and India (Cambridge University Press, 2019). Selina's book is a comparative study of two rising Indo-Pacific powers, China and India, ability to provide public goods. In her book, Selina asks the question: why does authoritarian China provide a higher level of public goods than democratic India? Studies based on regime type have shown that the level of public goods provision is higher in democratic systems than in authoritarian forms of government. However, the provision of public goods in China and India contradict these findings. Whether in terms of access to education, healthcare, public transportation, or basic necessities, such as drinking water and electricity, China does consistently better than India. This book argues that regime type does not determine public goods outcomes. Using empirical evidence from the Chinese and Indian municipal water sectors, the study explains and demonstrates how a social contract, an informal institution, influences formal institutional design, which in turn accounts for the variations in public goods provision.
The Asian Development Bank's 2018 Asian Economic Integration Report
The Asia and Pacific region maintains a healthy economic growth outlook. Excluding high-income economies, the region will grow at 6.0% this year and 5.8% in 2019. However, risks remain tilted to the downside with international trade conflicts escalating and elevated debt levels exposing the region’s financial vulnerability as United States monetary policy normalization continues. With growing economic interdependence and integration, the region increasingly faces development challenges that are transnational in nature, such as infrastructure connectivity within the region, environmental degradation and resource scarcity, and transnational health threats or infectious diseases. Regional public goods such as cross-border infrastructure, sustainable management of shared natural resources, and cross-border disease surveillance and control offer benefits beyond a single nation’s territory.
Trilateral Health Collaboration: Opportunities for the U.S. and Japan in Southeast Asia
Science diplomacy is an innovative way of promoting partnership and capacity building throughout the world. Greater investment in international medical research in Southeast Asia would strengthen U.S. soft power in the region through people-to-people relations. The U.S.-Japan alliance provides a strong platform for joint global health initiatives to work with Southeast Asian scientists on regional health threats. U.S. engagement with Southeast Asia on health is currently spread across several government agencies, without a coherent regional strategy. Learning from the Japanese approach to health science diplomacy and collaborating further with Japanese institutions would be mutually beneficial for Japan, the U.S., and Southeast Asia.
This seminar was part of a series tied to the U.S.-Japan-Southeast Asia in a Dynamic Asia Fellowship program jointly organized and sponsored by the East West Center and Osaka University’s Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP). Generously funded by The Japan Foundation and U.S. Embassy Tokyo, this fellowship has brought together two American, two Japanese, and two Southeast Asian fellows for three months to explore the following theme: How should the United States, Japan, and Southeast Asia collaborate on trade, investment, and economic integration in Southeast Asia?
Ebb & Flow, Disruption & Change: Key Issues on the Minds of Asian Editors
Major change in regional power dynamics will pose difficult challenges for Asia in the years ahead. China is rising and the United States is reasserting its dominance, while other players like Japan, India, and ASEAN are also seeking to boost their influence. This dynamic of shifting power positions comes at a time of major technological change, as well as the pressing need to tackle the common challenge of global warming. This seminar will feature perspectives from a Singaporean representative to the United States on Singapore’s reaction to this changing dynamic and an Asian editor's perspective of what is most on the minds of many newsrooms in Asia.
Japanese Views of US-Japan-Southeast Asia Economic Relations
In 2017, the United States exported nearly $700 billion worth of goods and services to the Indo-Pacific as a whole. Nearly 20% of those exports went to Japan, the United States’ 4th largest export destination. With discussions on a bilateral trade deal between Japan and the US, its largest export destination, looming in late spring, an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of this economic relationship going forward is of particular importance. An arena that could see increased collaboration between the two allies is Southeast Asia, which presents an opportunity for the United States and Japan to work together on improving trade practices and investing in infrastructure among other issues.
US-ASEAN Partnership Forum: February 11-13, 2019
A Portrait of Southeast Asia’s Infrastructure Development: The Asian Development Bank
According to the McKinsey Global Institute, Southeast Asia will need over $2 trillion in investment over the next few decades to update its infrastructure to maintain its current levels of economic growth. In addition to projects undertaken by individual countries, infrastructure needs are facilitated by multinational organizations such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB). In this seminar, Dr. Fei Yu of the ADB’s North America office discussed ADB programs in Southeast Asia, particularly its Greater Mekong Sub-regional Program, which seeks to increase connectivity in the region via sustainable infrastructure development.
