Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)

Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) The Center for European Policy Analysis | CEPA’s mission is to ensure a strong and democratic transatlantic alliance for future generations.

Media:[email protected] The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) is a non-partisan think-tank dedicated to re-inventing Atlanticism for a more secure future. Headquartered in Washington, D.C. and led by seasoned transatlanticists and emerging leaders from both sides of the Atlantic, CEPA brings an innovative approach to the foreign policy arena. Our cutting-edge analysis and timely debates galv

anize communities of influence while investing in the next generation of leaders to understand and address present and future challenges to transatlantic values and principles.

Ukraine's defense production capacity is projected at $55bn this year, against $1bn before 2022. That is close to a quar...
08/25/2026

Ukraine's defense production capacity is projected at $55bn this year, against $1bn before 2022. That is close to a quarter of national GDP.

Four years of developing and testing low-cost drones, interceptors, and missiles under fire has produced technology nobody else has battle-proven. Ukraine can charge a serious markup for it in Europe, the Middle East, and beyond, and will need to stay heavily armed regardless of any ceasefire. The industry is positioned to dominate reconstruction.

Šimon Peichl argues the shape of that recovery turns on whether Kyiv makes the right export deals, not on whether the demand exists.

Read the full analysis in the comment below.

From 2017 to 2024, China supplied an average of 45% of the Western Balkans' telecom equipment imports. The second and th...
08/25/2026

From 2017 to 2024, China supplied an average of 45% of the Western Balkans' telecom equipment imports. The second and third largest suppliers each managed under 10%.

Serbia is not the outlier people expect. China's share held between 36% in Albania and 51% in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and stayed roughly flat across eight years of US memoranda and European appeals. Albania alone recorded a brief dip in 2022.

Ekaterina Kurbangaleeva argues this is not geopolitical allegiance to Beijing. It is what happens when a supplier spends two decades becoming difficult to remove.

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It is hard to find a Ukrainian who does not want elections. It is harder to find one who thinks now is the time.Recent K...
08/24/2026

It is hard to find a Ukrainian who does not want elections. It is harder to find one who thinks now is the time.

Recent KIIS polling puts 57% in favor of elections only once hostilities end. The country is under martial law, millions are displaced or abroad, hundreds of thousands are serving, and cities are under nightly attack. Mykhailo Fedorov called for a vote on August 19 without explaining how any of that gets solved.

Shaun Pinner argues that wanting democratic renewal and believing a free, fair, and safe vote is possible mid-war are two entirely different positions, and Fedorov collapsed them.

Read the full analysis in the comment below.

Germany opened two offshore wind sites to auction in August 2025. Nobody bid. The 2026 round has been pushed to 2027.Bri...
08/24/2026

Germany opened two offshore wind sites to auction in August 2025. Nobody bid. The 2026 round has been pushed to 2027.

Britain learned the same lesson the hard way, drawing no bids in 2023, then improving the terms and awarding a record 8.4 gigawatts this year. Denmark has had its own empty auctions, and the Netherlands has retreated from subsidy-free tendering after costs undermined the economics. The market did not rediscover the wind. Governments changed who carries the risk.

Maciej Bukowski argues Europe assumed a mature industry would let the state step back, and that assumption has not survived contact with the auction results.

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1991. 2004. 2014. 2022. Every turning point in Ukraine's story was decided by choices made in the years leading up to it...
08/24/2026

1991. 2004. 2014. 2022. Every turning point in Ukraine's story was decided by choices made in the years leading up to it.

2036 is the next one. The outcome — a secure Ukraine anchored in Europe or a destabilizing gray zone on its border — hinges on what the West does in the next two years, not the next decade.

Read the full report in the comment below.

Fidesz ran an April campaign built on Ukraine fatigue, with synthetic news anchors, deepfake endorsements on TikTok, and...
08/24/2026

Fidesz ran an April campaign built on Ukraine fatigue, with synthetic news anchors, deepfake endorsements on TikTok, and coordinated pushes on X and Telegram. Tisza won 141 of 199 seats.

Sixteen years of Fidesz rule ended anyway. The bot networks and AI-generated imagery met an electorate that had already made up its mind, and independent media, fact-checkers, and politicians willing to argue for Ukraine in plain language did more damage to the narrative than any platform rule.

Klara Vlahčević Lisinski argues the strongest answer to AI-powered propaganda is not better regulation. It is better democratic speech.

Read the full analysis in the comment below.

08/23/2026

🇺🇦 Olga Tokariuk emphasizes that cannot be taken for granted as Russia’s war of aggression continues.

Exposure no longer necessarily deters Russia’s intelligence services.Sam Greene, Andrei Soldatov, and Irina Borogan expl...
08/23/2026

Exposure no longer necessarily deters Russia’s intelligence services.

Sam Greene, Andrei Soldatov, and Irina Borogan explore how Moscow has adapted its covert playbook, replacing traditional secrecy with ambiguity, intimidation, proxies, and greater operational risk-taking.

Read the full report in the comment below.

Blue for the sky, yellow for the fields. This year, Ukraine marks 35 years of independence, and the colors have never ca...
08/23/2026

Blue for the sky, yellow for the fields. This year, Ukraine marks 35 years of independence, and the colors have never carried more meaning. Happy Independence Day and Day of the National Flag. 🇺🇦

🇺🇦 Ukrainians worldwide are about to celebrate Independence Day, a pivotal moment that embodies the resilience and deter...
08/23/2026

🇺🇦 Ukrainians worldwide are about to celebrate Independence Day, a pivotal moment that embodies the resilience and determination of a nation fighting for sovereignty and self-determination. Since declaring independence in 1991, Ukraine has faced countless challenges, yet its spirit remains unyielding.

Here’s what you should read from CEPA experts this 👇

Volodymyr Dubovyk outlines that as Ukraine faces increasing one-sided demands from Moscow in peace discussions, Ukraine risks ongoing vulnerability to aggression without security assurances.

On the frontlines, Russian prisoner-of-war camps systematically inflict brutal treatment on Ukrainian captives. Elena Davlikanova explains that Russia is employing torture methods that violate the Geneva Conventions.

However, Kateryna Odarchenko underscores that Ukrainians choose freedom over the fear of Russian aggression. Their evolving national identity, shaped by ongoing conflict, reflects a deep commitment to dignity and civic responsibility, transcending mere survival.

Amidst the horror of war, Lera Burlakova shares her personal story of resilience as Ukrainians strive to maintain hope and a sense of normalcy in the face of unimaginable challenges.

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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