28/08/2026
Information courtesy of Storm Report SA
๐ฅ EL NIรO JUST GOT A LOT MORE SERIOUS
The latest NOAA Climate Prediction Center update, issued 24 August 2026, has significantly raised the stakes for the upcoming El Niรฑo.
๐ El Niรฑo is already present and strengthening.
The latest Pacific Ocean temperatures are running at:
๐ก๏ธ Niรฑo 3.4: +1.8ยฐC
๐ก๏ธ Niรฑo 3: +2.5ยฐC
๐ก๏ธ Niรฑo 1+2: +3.2ยฐC
But it's the forecast that has caught our attention.
๐ The CPC now gives a GREATER THAN 90% chance of a VERY STRONG El Niรฑo from SeptemberโNovember through NovemberโJanuary 2026/27.
Even more remarkable: there is now a 69% chance that the OctoberโDecember 2026 El Niรฑo could become a HISTORIC EVENT โ exceeding the strength of previous El Niรฑo events dating back to 1950.
The ocean is already showing strong support for continued development, with above-average heat content beneath the equatorial Pacific and strengthening subsurface warmth across the east-central and eastern Pacific.
And this is where things get particularly interesting for South Africa.
A very strong El Niรฑo does not mean we can simply declare that South Africa will be hot, dry or storm-free. ENSO is a large-scale climate driver, not a weather forecast.
But if this event continues strengthening as forecast, it could have a major influence on the atmospheric circulation patterns affecting Southern Africa during the 2026/27 summer.
This is no longer a case of โWill El Niรฑo develop?โ
It is now: HOW STRONG WILL IT BECOME? ๐๐ฅ
And if the current forecast verifies, we could be watching one of the most significant El Niรฑo events in the modern observational record.
The 2026/27 summer is getting VERY interesting.